Tuesday, January 4, 2011

2011 Sugar Bowl Preview

The Sugar Bowl will take place on 1/4 pitting Ohio State against Arkansas.

Ohio State is ranked #8 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 81.714 against a schedule strength of 64.805.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent other than the loss to Wisconsin, their worst game being against Wisconsin and best game being against Michigan.  They are 9-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-9 picking their games against the spread and 10-2 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=30,110&chtt=8 Ohio_State 81.714&chd=t:-1,79.421,81.812,82.649,76.237,86.489,79.856,70.205,84.061,84.424,-1,85.781,81.753,86.799,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1|80.804,82.505,83.229,82.838,88.079,88.079,86.858,80.973,81.955,80.010,79.841,80.079,81.820,82.077,81.880,81.880,81.897,81.878,81.714|-1|-1|68.235,60.031,66.802,62.960,63.221,63.966,63.245,65.440,64.486,62.308,62.680,62.612,65.429,65.213,65.095,65.088,64.987,64.981,64.805|-1,57.321,72.800,61.665,49.342,72.478,60.502,80.194,61.366,61.983,-1,68.594,75.742,67.670,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1&chxl=0:||Marshall|MiamiFl|OhioU|EMich|@Ill|Indiana|@Wisc|Purdue|@Minn|bye|PSU|@Iowa|Mich|bye|bye|bye|bye|bye|1:|30|50|70|90|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,16,1|o,00FF00,0,02,31,1|o,00FF00,0,03,20,1|o,00FF00,0,04,8,1|o,00FF00,0,05,37,1|o,00FF00,0,06,19,1|o,FF0000,0,07,42,1|o,00FF00,0,08,20,1|o,00FF00,0,09,26,1|o,00FF00,0,11,27,1|o,00FF00,0,12,40,1|o,00FF00,0,13,26,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t5,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t10,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t14,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t13,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t10,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t63,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t36,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t72,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t76,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t68,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t80,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t63,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t68,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t79,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t80,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t76,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|t55,00FFFF,4,12,15,1|t59,00FFFF,4,13,15,1|t72,00FFFF,4,14,15,1|h,000000,0,0.65,1,1

Arkansas is ranked #7 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 82.355 against a schedule strength of 69.205.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down but finished strong, their worst game being against Auburn and best game being against South Carolina.  They are 8-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-4 picking their games against the spread and 10-1 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=30,110&chtt=7 Arkansas 82.355&chd=t:-1,74.605,72.901,83.136,77.272,-1,85.593,69.879,75.201,79.324,96.201,79.660,85.526,83.771,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1|80.847,77.439,78.354,80.375,78.576,80.952,79.039,75.490,75.626,75.824,79.003,80.117,81.396,81.448,81.927,81.846,81.953,81.979,82.355|-1|-1|72.646,47.983,54.320,60.565,64.552,62.817,66.254,68.352,67.579,66.408,67.620,66.520,68.542,68.480,68.798,68.727,68.864,68.899,69.205|-1,-1,54.786,73.125,84.261,-1,78.582,85.926,64.191,57.746,78.722,57.687,75.515,78.760,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1&chxl=0:||TennTech|LaMon|@Georgia|Ala|bye|TAMU|@Auburn|Miss|Vandy|@SoCar|UTEP|@MissSt|LSU|bye|bye|bye|bye|bye|1:|30|50|70|90|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,8,1|o,00FF00,0,02,12,1|o,00FF00,0,03,37,1|o,FF0000,0,04,43,1|o,00FF00,0,06,39,1|o,FF0000,0,07,36,1|o,00FF00,0,08,22,1|o,00FF00,0,09,15,1|o,00FF00,0,10,42,1|o,00FF00,0,11,15,1|o,00FF00,0,12,39,1|o,00FF00,0,13,36,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t12,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t18,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t16,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t19,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t13,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t22,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t31,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t27,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t25,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t12,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t96,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t98,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t90,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t61,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t80,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t45,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t33,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t32,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t43,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t31,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t37,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|t25,00FFFF,4,12,15,1|t23,00FFFF,4,13,15,1|t26,00FFFF,4,14,15,1|h,000000,0,0.65,1,1

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 as follows:

3 Ohio_State-->Eastern_Michigan-->Vanderbilt-->Arkansas
3 Ohio_State-->Marshall-->UTEP-->Arkansas
3 Ohio_State-->Penn_State-->Alabama-->Arkansas

The spread is Ohio State by 3.5 and the computer actually likes Arkansas to win although that is based largely on the poor showing of the Big-Ten in the bowls.  The earlier pick was Ohio State to win by around 0.1.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Arkansas              +3.5 over  .           Ohio_State  0.6  4.1 0.532 0.699

Enjoy!

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