Saturday, January 15, 2011

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Preview

Baltimore plays at Pittsburgh on 1/15 in a playoff game.

Baltimore is ranked #4 by the computer with a 13-4 record and a rating of 87.222 against a schedule strength of 81.723.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent and finished fairly strong, their worst game being @Cincinnati and best game being @Kansas City.  They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=50,110&chtt=4 Baltimore 87.222&chd=t:-1,91.560,75.948,85.075,94.313,84.781,89.918,79.539,-1,93.384,82.843,87.968,87.031,80.713,88.349,86.399,91.875,82.948,96.057|84.688,86.113,85.160,85.173,88.803,89.526,88.501,86.236,84.927,86.050,86.280,85.812,86.153,85.342,85.827,85.776,86.595,86.452,87.222|-1|-1|81.179,86.962,86.311,83.780,87.623,85.031,85.289,82.590,81.613,81.222,82.824,81.482,81.466,81.508,81.703,81.482,81.894,81.614,81.723|-1,86.572,78.957,80.089,87.520,74.175,90.928,78.553,-1,81.590,85.846,71.916,82.037,87.520,79.141,82.394,80.089,78.957,80.010&chxl=0:||@NYJ|@CIN|CLE|@PIT|DEN|@NWE|BUF|bye|MIA|@ATL|@CAR|TAM|PIT|@HOU|NWO|@CLE|CIN|@KAN|1:|50|60|70|80|90|100|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,43,1|o,FF0000,0,02,43,1|o,00FF00,0,03,33,1|o,00FF00,0,04,43,1|o,00FF00,0,05,27,1|o,FF0000,0,06,36,1|o,00FF00,0,07,31,1|o,00FF00,0,09,34,1|o,FF0000,0,10,41,1|o,00FF00,0,11,31,1|o,00FF00,0,12,35,1|o,FF0000,0,13,43,1|o,00FF00,0,14,38,1|o,00FF00,0,15,35,1|o,00FF00,0,16,39,1|o,00FF00,0,17,32,1|o,00FF00,0,18,39,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t4,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t4,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t2,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t6,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t1,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t2,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t1,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t5,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t10,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t15,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t5,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t14,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|h,000000,0,0.62,1,1

Pittsburgh is ranked #3 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 87.520 against a schedule strength of 82.001.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little more up and down their downs standing out a bit more, their worst game being @New Orleans and best game being @Tampa Bay.  They are 10-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=50,110&chtt=3 Pittsburgh 87.520&chd=t:-1,89.843,90.204,98.117,80.406,-1,93.075,86.584,74.799,88.148,77.518,96.144,85.339,94.006,90.748,78.160,87.110,96.361,-1|82.092,83.556,87.172,91.746,90.123,91.011,90.076,89.322,86.185,87.167,85.435,85.962,86.001,86.615,87.076,86.221,86.598,87.407,87.520|-1|-1|79.949,79.481,83.419,85.233,84.106,85.649,82.158,82.574,82.371,83.073,83.148,82.104,82.151,82.645,82.275,82.340,81.746,81.895,82.001|-1,85.846,79.608,82.037,87.222,-1,80.089,81.590,82.394,78.957,90.928,80.028,78.553,87.222,78.957,86.572,71.916,80.089,-1&chxl=0:||ATL|@TEN|@TAM|BAL|bye|CLE|@MIA|@NWO|@CIN|NWE|OAK|@BUF|@BAL|CIN|NYJ|CAR|@CLE|bye|1:|50|60|70|80|90|100|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,38,1|o,00FF00,0,02,38,1|o,00FF00,0,03,41,1|o,FF0000,0,04,43,1|o,00FF00,0,06,33,1|o,00FF00,0,07,40,1|o,FF0000,0,08,43,1|o,00FF00,0,09,37,1|o,FF0000,0,10,43,1|o,00FF00,0,11,33,1|o,00FF00,0,12,37,1|o,00FF00,0,13,43,1|o,00FF00,0,14,31,1|o,FF0000,0,15,43,1|o,00FF00,0,16,24,1|o,00FF00,0,17,39,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t9,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t22,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t6,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t2,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t4,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t1,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t8,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t6,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t5,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t2,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t2,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t7,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|h,000000,0,0.63,1,1

The teams played head to head twice are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

1 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh
1 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Atlanta-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Buffalo-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Carolina-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Miami-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->New_England-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->New_Orleans-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Tampa_Bay-->Pittsburgh

The teams split their 2 games, the road team winning by a field goal each time.

The spread is Pittsburgh by 3 and the computer agrees nearly exactly picking them by 3.3.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xPittsburgh            -3.0 over  .            Baltimore  3.3  0.3 0.629 0.512

Enjoy!