The computer goes to 5-1 against the spread in the playoffs; Today's Seahawks/Bears and Jets/Patriots picks

With Pittsburgh's and Green Bay's wins yesterday, the computer is now 5-1 picking games against the spread in the playoffs.  In fact, it is doing better against the spread than winners, 5-1 vs 4-2, although picking winners it is handily beating Vegas which is only 2-4.

Last week, the computer went 3-1 barely missing on only Kansas City +3 (computer had Baltimore by 2.8), but nailing Seattle +11.5 (complete analysis actually showed a good chance of a Seattle win), Green Bay +3 (computer did pick the upset in fact), and the Jets +3 (also picked the upset).

In today's games New England is a 10 point favorite but the computer likes them by only 7.4, and Chicago is up to a 10-11 point pick but the computer says that isn't enough having it at 11.6.

Could Seattle pull the upset again?  After all, they won in Chicago earlier in the year!

Their performance chart shows the 2nd Saints game continued their earlier trend of being good or bad, no individual game performance overlapping their current rating.  So, it is reasonable to think that they will again play very well or very bad.  The problem this week is that 6 of their 8 road games were bad, the good ones being at Chicago and Arizona.  Of their 8 good games, 6 were at home.  So it is less likely that the "good" Seattle shows up this week than the last two.

But if the good Seattle shows up, that team has an average rating of 86.9, they are playing a Chicago team with an 84.8 rating so perhaps they have a chance.  Especially since Chicago has played worse at home than on the road with 3 of their 4 losses at home and an average rating of 81.9 at home vs 87.4 on the road.







New England on the other hand has been far and away the best team the latter part of the year, only getting better each week the last 7 weeks.  The Jets have been good, but can clearly have a down game as happened last time they visited the Pats and the following week hosting Miami.

At home the Pats rating averages 90.6, right about their overall rating and the Jets on the road are 85.9, just below their overall rating.  So nothing other than a worse than normal Patriots and a great game by the Jets points to a Jets win.  But that is why they play the game.

Green Bay at Atlanta Preview

Green Bay plays at Atlanta on 1/15 in a playoff game.

Green Bay is ranked #2 by the computer with a 11-6 record and a rating of 88.161 against a schedule strength of 82.575.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite up and down in stretches, their worst game being against Miami and best game being against the Giants.  They are 9-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



Atlanta is ranked #6 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 85.846 against a schedule strength of 80.025.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were much more consistent with just 2 poor showings in 2 of their 3 losses, their worst game being @Philadelphia and best game being @St Louis.  They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 13-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head are separated by 2 degrees through Philly and San Francisco as follows:

1 Green_Bay-->Atlanta
2 Green_Bay-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 Green_Bay-->San_Francisco-->Atlanta

Head to head Atlanta won by 3 at home, Green Bay beat Philly on the road twice while Atlanta lost on the road, and Atlanta best the 49ers by 2 at home while Green Bay beat them by 18.

The spread is Atlanta by 2 and the computer agrees but just by 0.7.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

 .Green Bay             +2.0 over *x              Atlanta  0.7  1.3 0.526 0.550

This game is interesting because Green Bay has been so up and down.  Green Bay has 8 single game ratings in the 90s, 4 of those over 96, while Atlanta has only 4 in the 90s and none over 92.033.  So at their best, Green Bay is the better team.  But Green Bay can be bad too with 3 games in the 70s and 5 below 83, while Atlanta also has 3 in the 70s but no other below 83.

Enjoy!

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Preview

Baltimore plays at Pittsburgh on 1/15 in a playoff game.

Baltimore is ranked #4 by the computer with a 13-4 record and a rating of 87.222 against a schedule strength of 81.723.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent and finished fairly strong, their worst game being @Cincinnati and best game being @Kansas City.  They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



Pittsburgh is ranked #3 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 87.520 against a schedule strength of 82.001.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little more up and down their downs standing out a bit more, their worst game being @New Orleans and best game being @Tampa Bay.  They are 10-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head twice are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

1 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh
1 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Atlanta-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Buffalo-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Carolina-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Miami-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->New_England-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->New_Orleans-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Tampa_Bay-->Pittsburgh

The teams split their 2 games, the road team winning by a field goal each time.

The spread is Pittsburgh by 3 and the computer agrees nearly exactly picking them by 3.3.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xPittsburgh            -3.0 over  .            Baltimore  3.3  0.3 0.629 0.512

Enjoy!

BCS National Championship Preview

This preview was sent to subscribers, posting it here now for all.

Oregon is ranked #1 by the computer with a 12-0 record and a rating of 92.291 against a schedule strength of 70.341.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent all year other than their high and low, their worst game being @California and best game being against Stanford.  They are 7-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-5 picking their games against the spread and 10-1 picking winners in their games.



Auburn is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-0 record and a rating of 85.964 against a schedule strength of 70.564.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent too but finishing a bit stronger than Oregon did, their worst game being against Clemson and best game being against South Carolina.  They are 8-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-5 picking their games against the spread and 10-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are through 3 as follows:

3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Alabama-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Georgia-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Kentucky-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->LSU-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Mississippi-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Auburn

The spread opened Auburn by 3 but has shrunk to 1 to 1.5 and the computer disagrees in either case picking the upset having Oregon by an astounding 5.9.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

 *Oregon                +3.0 over ..               Auburn  5.9  8.9 0.736 0.829

Why does the computer like Oregon so much more given they played near identical schedule strengths?  Simply put, Oregon played a similar schedule but handle them much more decisively than Auburn did, other than the Cal game of course.  And given the Cal game and how the teams finished though, even though the computer does give a little more weight to games at the end of the season, it is useful to look at just those games.

Using Oregon's last 5 games, their rating would be 90.5, the last 4 89.3, and the last 3 87.6.  This compared with the season long rating of 92.291.

Using Auburn's last 5 games, their rating would be 87.5, the last 4 88.7, and the last 3 91.4.  This compared with the season long rating of 85.961.

So Auburn was on the rise, and Cal on a bit of a downswing, to the point that Auburn could be argued to be playing better and have a higher rating if just the last 3 games are used.  However, these ratings are skewed by Oregon's worst game being in that set and Auburn's best game being so.  If you consider both of those completely valid and an indication of how the teams were playing, then the computer's pick perhaps isn't correct.

However, if you throw the best and worst out from each teams last 5 you get Oregon rated at 92.6 and Auburn at 86.3.  So you decide, were those highs/lows anomalies or an accurate indicator?

Enjoy!

Why you should have known Seattle would beat New Orleans

Seattle beat New Orleans Saturday in what appears to be one of the biggest upsets in recent playoff memory, but was it really?

Seattle played like two different teams much of the season, and that can be seen in their performance chart.

Unlike any other chart I recall, Seattle was either good or bad.  All of their wins are well above and not overlapping their current rating and all their losses were well below.  In their wins their average rating was 86.939 and in their losses it was 66.026.

Of their 7 (coming in, now 8) good games, 5 were at home and only 2 on the road.  Of their 9 bad games, 6 were on the road.  So if they were going to play well it was most likely going to be at home.

New Orleans on the other hand was not such a Jekyll and Hyde team with a good third to nearly half of their games being close to their overall rating, and even some of the losses being a decent result.

Now, Vegas, or more accurate the voting public betting the game and causing Vegas to set the line, had New Orleans by 10+ points.  Even just looking at the overall ratings my computer said that was way too much having New Orleans by just 4.5, but taking the above analysis into account, could you actually predict a Seattle win?

A good Seattle was going to play to around an 86 rating and there was a good chance the good Seattle would show up at home, against a New Orleans team that had a rating around 83 coming in.  Tack on some home field advantage and you actually have a pick of Seattle by 6!  Given that they won by 5, that is pretty darn close.

If you were a newsletter subscriber, you would have gotten a preview with these charts and information.  It's not too late to sign-up for the rest of the playoffs.

Enjoy!

Super Bowl chances after wildcard round of playoffs

With the wildcard games complete, four teams are out of it and we have updated chances of each team making and winning the Super Bowl.

No surprise, the Patriots are still the favorite to get to and win the Super Bowl.  Pittsburgh, despite having to go through New England, still has a better chance to win than the #1 seed in the NFC, Atlanta does.  And Green Bay has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than Chicago does even though Chicago has a better chance of getting there.

Enjoy.

Team	Get to	Win
New_England	0.465	0.297
Pittsburgh	0.268	0.150
Atlanta	0.364	0.146
Green_Bay	0.265	0.128
Chicago	0.329	0.125
Baltimore	0.150	0.084
NY_Jets	0.117	0.062
Seattle	0.042	0.008
Indianapolis	0.000	0.000
Kansas_City	0.000	0.000
New_Orleans	0.000	0.000
Philadelphia	0.000	0.000

NFL Ratings and Rankings after first round of playoffs

The wildcard games are complete and there were a few surprises, certainly one big one, but really no changes to the top-rated teams.  My computer's picks went 3-1 against the spread so a good start to the playoffs.

The rankings are below, but the top-8 teams stay the same with very little movement in the ratings.  Baltimore made the biggest move improving 0.77 points but couldn't catch Pittsburgh at #3.  And the top-7 teams are all still in the playoffs, plus #29 Seattle!

Yes, Seattle pulled the upset, but when you look at their performance chart (below), perhaps it shouldn't have been a complete surprise.  Seattle was either pretty to very good (7, now 8, game ratings at 80 or above, a few in the mid-80s to 90s) or very bad.  Their rating coming in, the average of all this, in fact doesn't overlap any of their individual game ratings.  So if the good Seattle showed up, roughly a 50/50 proposition and better than that at home, they would play to about an 87 rating and New Orleans coming in was at 83, so a good Seattle was in fact the pick to win!

Stay tuned for the picks for the divisional round, and if you are a subscriber you'll get the detailed preview.

Enjoy!

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	90.928	14-2	82.974	+0, +0.135
2	Green Bay	88.161	11-6	82.575	+0, +0.311
3	Pittsburgh	87.520	12-4	82.001	+0, +0.113
4	Baltimore	87.222	13-4	81.723	+0, +0.770
5	NY Jets	86.572	12-5	82.943	+0, +0.231
6	Atlanta	85.846	13-3	80.025	+0, +0.028
7	Chicago	84.768	11-5	81.859	+0, +0.104
8	Philadelphia	82.992	10-7	81.427	+0, -0.242
9	Indianapolis	82.742	10-7	80.505	+1, -0.191
10	San Diego	82.595	9-7	78.826	+1, -0.074
11	New Orleans	82.394	11-6	79.728	-2, -0.678
12	NY Giants	82.241	10-6	80.174	+0, +0.002
13	Tampa Bay	82.037	10-6	79.822	+0, +0.026
14	Detroit	81.863	6-10	82.911	+0, +0.066
15	Miami	81.590	7-9	83.785	+0, +0.135
16	Minnesota	80.242	6-10	83.045	+1, +0.030
17	Cleveland	80.089	5-11	82.868	+2, +0.078
18	Oakland	80.028	8-8	79.098	+0, -0.070
19	Kansas City	80.010	10-7	78.786	-3, -0.593
20	Dallas	79.860	6-10	81.092	+0, -0.085
21	Tennessee	79.608	6-10	80.656	+0, -0.113
22	Houston	79.141	6-10	81.007	+0, -0.065
23	Cincinnati	78.957	4-12	83.427	+0, +0.073
24	Jacksonville	78.649	8-8	80.122	+0, -0.103
25	Buffalo	78.553	4-12	84.104	+1, +0.093
26	Washington	78.425	6-10	81.527	-1, -0.038
27	St Louis	77.029	7-9	78.172	+0, -0.003
28	San Francisco	77.021	6-10	79.040	+0, +0.014
29	Seattle	76.132	8-9	78.745	+0, +0.604
30	Denver	74.175	4-12	79.935	+0, -0.033
31	Arizona	72.579	5-11	78.717	+0, +0.013
32	Carolina	71.916	2-14	81.507	+0, +0.062

New Orleans at Seattle Preview

New Orleans plays at Seattle on 1/8 in a playoff game.

New Orleans is ranked #9 by the computer with a 11-5 record and a rating of 83.072 against a schedule strength of 79.651.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down early in the year, their worst game being @Arizona and best game being @Tampa Bay.  They are 7-9 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 8-8 picking winners in their games.



Seattle is ranked #29 by the computer with a 7-9 record and a rating of 75.528 against a schedule strength of 78.778.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down all year, their worst game being @Denver and best game being against San Francisco.  They are 7-9 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head, the Saints winning, are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

1 New_Orleans-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Arizona-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Arizona-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->San_Francisco-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->San_Francisco-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Seattle
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Seattle

The spread is New Orleans by as much as 11.5 and the computer has them winning but not by that much.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.xSeattle              +11.5 over  *          New_Orleans  4.5  7.0 0.621 0.681

Enjoy!

2011 Sugar Bowl Preview

The Sugar Bowl will take place on 1/4 pitting Ohio State against Arkansas.

Ohio State is ranked #8 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 81.714 against a schedule strength of 64.805.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent other than the loss to Wisconsin, their worst game being against Wisconsin and best game being against Michigan.  They are 9-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-9 picking their games against the spread and 10-2 picking winners in their games.



Arkansas is ranked #7 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 82.355 against a schedule strength of 69.205.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down but finished strong, their worst game being against Auburn and best game being against South Carolina.  They are 8-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-4 picking their games against the spread and 10-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 as follows:

3 Ohio_State-->Eastern_Michigan-->Vanderbilt-->Arkansas
3 Ohio_State-->Marshall-->UTEP-->Arkansas
3 Ohio_State-->Penn_State-->Alabama-->Arkansas

The spread is Ohio State by 3.5 and the computer actually likes Arkansas to win although that is based largely on the poor showing of the Big-Ten in the bowls.  The earlier pick was Ohio State to win by around 0.1.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Arkansas              +3.5 over  .           Ohio_State  0.6  4.1 0.532 0.699

Enjoy!