Monday, January 4, 2010

Superbowl Odds

With the playoff teams finally nailed down and week 17 complete, the computer can now run its calculations to identify the chance of each team getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Interestingly, despite the Colts being ranked #8 now after the 2 losses, they are still the AFC favorite to get to the Superbowl and the #2 pick to win it.  The getting to the Superbowl is due to having home field advantage throughout the playoffs and New Orleans benefits from that too with even a higher chance of getting to the Superbowl than the Colts.

As you might expect, the other teams with first round byes also are the other 2 with the best chance those being the Chargers and Vikings.  The best of the rest are the Patriots and Dallas and the rest are pretty slim.  But the chances for Arizona were pretty slim last year too.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
New Orleans0.4400.249
Indianapolis0.3520.163
San Diego0.2980.145
Minnesota0.2420.117
New England0.1530.079
Dallas0.1400.077
NY Jets0.0930.044
Green Bay0.0800.040
Philadelphia0.0520.026
Baltimore0.0500.022
Cincinnati0.0530.020
Arizona0.0440.018