Sunday, January 3, 2010

End of Regular Season NFL Ratings/Ranking and Review

The regular season is now complete, and none too soon given the way some good teams packed it in the last few weeks.  Teams resting starters wreaked havoc with the computer's picks the last few weeks, but the question now is if those teams can go back to where they were?

The latest rankings are below but always found here.  And there are some changes.  New Orleans somehow manages to stay #1 even though they lost over 1.2 ratings points as they had a big enough lead, and many of the other top teams also did poorly and dropped.  New England was one of those dropping nearly a full ratings point but benefited by the Colts dropping over 2 points to stay #2, and Dallas jumps up to #3 with San Diego close behind at #4.

The question now is if the teams are rated where they should be.  Indianapolis seems low at #8, but history shows that when they've rested folks they've been unable to get it back.  Dallas and San Diego are finishing strong and getting rewarded for it.  The Jets even with their finish have jumped to #7.

The whacky end of season games did result in the computer only going 8-8 against the spread.  Here's hoping it does better in the playoffs more in line with the season record of 148-102-6.  Full prediction performance shown here.

Look for an upcoming entry on wildcard weekend picks as well as Superbowl chances for each team.  If you are interested in detailed playoff games previews, subscribe to the newsletter.  See the bowl game previews for examples of what you'll get.

1New Orleans87.59313-380.858+0, -1.208
2New England86.68410-682.069+0, -0.908
3Dallas86.59411-580.982+3, +0.984
4San Diego85.72113-379.851+1, -0.569
5Philadelphia85.25911-581.155-1, -1.176
6Green Bay85.15811-578.809+3, +1.494
7NY Jets85.1149-781.758+0, +0.722
8Indianapolis84.92514-280.356-5, -2.149
9Minnesota84.67312-478.875+1, +1.178
10Baltimore84.3329-780.390-2, +0.207
11Atlanta83.9909-782.562+0, +0.502
12Carolina83.9678-882.992+0, +1.116
13Houston82.6189-780.137+1, +0.346
14Pittsburgh82.1569-780.025+5, +0.976
15Cincinnati81.78210-680.467+0, -0.482
16Arizona81.69210-678.647-3, -1.139
17San Francisco81.1968-879.010+3, +0.068
18Miami80.9337-983.173-1, -0.590
19Tennessee80.4798-881.110+2, -0.267
20NY Giants80.4778-882.180-2, -0.890
21Denver80.3888-881.155-5, -1.739
22Buffalo80.3516-1082.443+0, +1.648
23Chicago78.3327-979.968+2, +0.628
24Tampa Bay77.7773-1383.521-1, -0.344
25Washington77.3714-1280.887+1, +0.301
26Jacksonville77.2477-980.523-2, -0.572
27Cleveland76.2135-1180.529+0, +0.825
28Kansas City75.8124-1280.851+2, +1.801
29Oakland74.8115-1181.610-1, -0.021
30Seattle74.2885-1179.568-1, -0.220
31St Louis70.0371-1580.137+0, -0.625
32Detroit69.4382-1480.812+0, -0.189