NFL Divisional Round Rankings and Summary

Three of the games weren't terribly compelling, but the last one was, and in any case we are down to the final 4 teams with 3 expected to be there and one big surprise.

But should we really be surprised?  The computer had the Jets in the top-10 since week 14 and had them #6 coming in to this game less than 0.4 ratings points behind the Chargers.  This made them a clear pick plus the points and they pulled off the minor upset.

The result is that they move to #2 behind the Saints who continue to hold a pretty clear margin at #1.  Very close behind the Jets are the other combatants in next weeks games plus Dallas is still at #4 on the strength of their December finish and big wins over Philly.  Even though the Colts are #5, we know this is due to not playing starters the last 2 games and thus probably isn't representative of where they should really be rated.  Even so #2 thru #5 are less than 0.17 ratings points apart so not much between them.

The computer has done fairly well picking games in the playoffs going 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 picking winners.  See the 2010 NFL Playoffs Previews for more details on the picks and performance.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	88.060	14-3	80.612	+0, +0.599
2	NY Jets	86.047	11-7	82.209	+4, +0.611
3	Minnesota	85.907	13-4	79.103	+6, +1.173
4	Dallas	85.896	12-6	81.180	-2, -1.355
5	Indianapolis	85.885	15-2	80.514	+2, +0.932
6	New England	85.634	10-7	82.286	-1, +0.141
7	San Diego	84.996	13-4	79.828	-4, -0.793
8	Baltimore	84.752	10-8	81.244	-4, -0.783
9	Green Bay	84.731	11-6	79.315	-1, -0.091
10	Philadelphia	84.166	11-6	81.417	+0, -0.403
11	Carolina	84.018	8-8	82.977	+0, +0.136
12	Atlanta	83.923	9-7	82.490	+0, +0.048
13	Houston	82.729	9-7	80.276	+0, +0.208
14	Pittsburgh	82.153	9-7	80.007	+0, -0.122
15	Arizona	81.795	11-7	79.667	+0, -0.382
16	Cincinnati	81.368	10-7	80.703	+0, -0.001
17	San Francisco	81.264	8-8	79.130	+0, +0.066
18	Miami	80.988	7-9	83.230	+0, +0.210
19	Tennessee	80.571	8-8	81.243	+1, +0.138
20	Buffalo	80.449	6-10	82.523	+2, +0.234
21	NY Giants	80.261	8-8	81.938	-2, -0.217
22	Denver	80.118	8-8	80.859	-1, -0.300
23	Chicago	78.445	7-9	80.037	+0, +0.058
24	Tampa Bay	77.725	3-13	83.416	+0, +0.075
25	Jacksonville	77.363	7-9	80.682	+1, +0.167
26	Washington	77.078	4-12	80.589	-1, -0.292
27	Cleveland	76.195	5-11	80.517	+0, -0.120
28	Kansas City	75.559	4-12	80.572	+0, -0.301
29	Oakland	74.623	5-11	81.375	+0, -0.280
30	Seattle	74.401	5-11	79.709	+0, +0.058
31	St Louis	70.213	1-15	80.327	+0, +0.122
32	Detroit	69.545	2-14	80.965	+0, +0.021