Sunday, January 17, 2010

NFL Divisional Round Rankings and Summary

Three of the games weren't terribly compelling, but the last one was, and in any case we are down to the final 4 teams with 3 expected to be there and one big surprise.

But should we really be surprised?  The computer had the Jets in the top-10 since week 14 and had them #6 coming in to this game less than 0.4 ratings points behind the Chargers.  This made them a clear pick plus the points and they pulled off the minor upset.

The result is that they move to #2 behind the Saints who continue to hold a pretty clear margin at #1.  Very close behind the Jets are the other combatants in next weeks games plus Dallas is still at #4 on the strength of their December finish and big wins over Philly.  Even though the Colts are #5, we know this is due to not playing starters the last 2 games and thus probably isn't representative of where they should really be rated.  Even so #2 thru #5 are less than 0.17 ratings points apart so not much between them.

The computer has done fairly well picking games in the playoffs going 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 picking winners.  See the 2010 NFL Playoffs Previews for more details on the picks and performance.

1New Orleans88.06014-380.612+0, +0.599
2NY Jets86.04711-782.209+4, +0.611
3Minnesota85.90713-479.103+6, +1.173
4Dallas85.89612-681.180-2, -1.355
5Indianapolis85.88515-280.514+2, +0.932
6New England85.63410-782.286-1, +0.141
7San Diego84.99613-479.828-4, -0.793
8Baltimore84.75210-881.244-4, -0.783
9Green Bay84.73111-679.315-1, -0.091
10Philadelphia84.16611-681.417+0, -0.403
11Carolina84.0188-882.977+0, +0.136
12Atlanta83.9239-782.490+0, +0.048
13Houston82.7299-780.276+0, +0.208
14Pittsburgh82.1539-780.007+0, -0.122
15Arizona81.79511-779.667+0, -0.382
16Cincinnati81.36810-780.703+0, -0.001
17San Francisco81.2648-879.130+0, +0.066
18Miami80.9887-983.230+0, +0.210
19Tennessee80.5718-881.243+1, +0.138
20Buffalo80.4496-1082.523+2, +0.234
21NY Giants80.2618-881.938-2, -0.217
22Denver80.1188-880.859-1, -0.300
23Chicago78.4457-980.037+0, +0.058
24Tampa Bay77.7253-1383.416+0, +0.075
25Jacksonville77.3637-980.682+1, +0.167
26Washington77.0784-1280.589-1, -0.292
27Cleveland76.1955-1180.517+0, -0.120
28Kansas City75.5594-1280.572+0, -0.301
29Oakland74.6235-1181.375+0, -0.280
30Seattle74.4015-1179.709+0, +0.058
31St Louis70.2131-1580.327+0, +0.122
32Detroit69.5452-1480.965+0, +0.021