Sunday, January 31, 2010

One week to the Super Bowl

With the Super Bowl one week away, it is time to start to take a closer look at the combatants and the match up.  Newsletter subscribers already received a detailed preview and that preview will be posted on the Playoffs Preview page shortly before kickoff for all to see.

While it has not been common to have the #1 seeds from each conference make it to the Super Bowl, it happened this year just as the computer predicted.  Now, it is easy to pick the #1 seeds to make it, but the computer had the Saints and Colts far and away the favorites at 59.7% and 32.7% chance of making it thus far.

So, they made it.  How do they match up?  Below are the performance charts for each team through the end of the regular season.  The charts including playoff games is in the full preview to be posted later.

Both teams were the clear #1 and #2 all season until they let up on the accelerator late in the year, although the Saints had a large enough cushion to stay #1 even with the 3 losses.  If you believe the real indication of the quality of the teams was what they had done in week 14 or 15, New Orleans should be the pick to win.  And even with both teams getting back in the swing of things in the playoffs, New Orleans as stayed #1 with Indianapolis now up to #2 in the current rankings.

So what does that mean the prediction is?  The computer is picking the Saints by 1.4 which obviously makes the pick against the spread the Saints plus the points.

Stay tuned for the full preview with more details on the web-site later!