30 games down, only 4 to go! And while there have been upsets and surprises in the games of the last week and there have been some big movers farther down in the rankings, the top-6 remain the same.
Alabama easily remains #1 although Florida did narrow the gap after dismantling Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. TCU stays #3 after moving to that spot last week after the early success of the Mountain West Conference in the bowls and in fact extends the lead over Texas. Virginia Tech and Arkansas both won their bowl games and keep their rankings, although VT did so impressively and improved their rating while Arkansas eked out their win and actually lost ratings points but narrowly stayed ahead of Boise State who moved up to #7 thanks to Cincinnati and Oregon both falling out of the top-10. Georgia Tech and Ohio State also benefited from those teams dropping.
The computer has continued the good performance against the spread and is now 19-11. A nice summary of the picks and performance is here. Full prediction performance for the year is here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 92.063 | 13-0 | 71.945 | +0, -0.012 |
| 2 | Florida | 88.347 | 13-1 | 71.694 | +0, +1.074 |
| 3 | TCU | 87.631 | 12-0 | 66.649 | +0, +0.598 |
| 4 | Texas | 85.906 | 13-0 | 69.109 | +0, -0.783 |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 83.960 | 10-3 | 73.302 | +0, +1.227 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 80.753 | 8-5 | 72.532 | +0, -1.073 |
| 7 | Boise St | 80.607 | 13-0 | 61.621 | +3, -0.126 |
| 8 | Georgia Tech | 80.402 | 11-2 | 72.999 | +4, +0.271 |
| 9 | LSU | 80.353 | 9-4 | 72.886 | +0, -0.677 |
| 10 | Ohio State | 80.308 | 11-2 | 67.802 | +7, +2.257 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 80.153 | 8-5 | 70.858 | +0, -0.529 |
| 12 | Cincinnati | 80.053 | 12-1 | 68.407 | -4, -1.172 |
| 13 | Oregon | 79.947 | 10-3 | 72.073 | -6, -1.561 |
| 14 | Nebraska | 79.313 | 10-4 | 69.191 | +2, +1.057 |
| 15 | Clemson | 78.804 | 9-5 | 71.330 | +0, +0.077 |
| 16 | Texas Tech | 78.553 | 9-4 | 67.803 | -2, -0.696 |
| 17 | Miami FL | 78.538 | 9-4 | 72.317 | -4, -0.818 |
| 18 | Mississippi | 78.378 | 9-4 | 70.066 | +0, +0.364 |
| 19 | Penn State | 78.181 | 11-2 | 65.999 | +5, +1.504 |
| 20 | Brigham Young | 77.938 | 11-2 | 68.155 | +2, +0.567 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh | 77.858 | 10-3 | 69.074 | -2, +0.151 |
| 22 | Stanford | 76.822 | 8-5 | 70.128 | -1, -0.614 |
| 23 | Auburn | 76.517 | 8-5 | 72.235 | +0, -0.843 |
| 24 | Utah | 76.426 | 10-3 | 67.206 | +3, +0.369 |
| 25 | Tennessee | 76.313 | 7-6 | 71.687 | -5, -1.265 |
| 26 | Connecticut | 76.035 | 8-5 | 69.325 | +9, +1.233 |
| 27 | North Carolina | 76.024 | 8-5 | 70.356 | +3, +0.396 |
| 28 | Iowa | 76.019 | 10-2 | 68.283 | +6, +0.865 |
| 29 | Southern Cal | 75.978 | 9-4 | 70.688 | -3, -0.315 |
| 30 | Georgia | 75.857 | 8-5 | 73.111 | +1, +0.576 |
| 31 | Oregon St | 75.514 | 8-5 | 69.872 | -3, -0.519 |
| 32 | Air Force | 74.620 | 8-5 | 65.889 | +13, +2.520 |
| 33 | Florida St | 74.606 | 7-6 | 73.780 | +6, +1.659 |
| 34 | Arizona | 74.591 | 8-5 | 71.385 | -9, -1.800 |
| 35 | Oklahoma St | 74.142 | 9-4 | 69.003 | -6, -1.881 |
| 36 | Mississippi St | 74.088 | 5-7 | 73.272 | +0, -0.356 |
| 37 | Wisconsin | 73.973 | 10-3 | 67.132 | +10, +2.196 |
| 38 | West Virginia | 73.952 | 9-4 | 69.928 | -6, -1.279 |
| 39 | Kentucky | 73.726 | 7-6 | 70.058 | -2, -0.294 |
| 40 | South Carolina | 73.718 | 7-6 | 73.855 | -7, -1.445 |
| 41 | Rutgers | 73.046 | 9-4 | 62.546 | -3, -0.002 |
| 42 | Navy | 72.320 | 10-4 | 65.906 | +12, +2.178 |
| 43 | Boston College | 72.135 | 8-5 | 69.459 | +3, +0.298 |
| 44 | California | 72.114 | 8-5 | 70.437 | -3, -0.395 |
| 45 | South Florida | 71.927 | 8-5 | 66.944 | +6, +0.819 |
| 46 | Wake Forest | 71.853 | 5-7 | 71.331 | +2, +0.307 |
| 47 | Central Michigan | 71.820 | 11-2 | 60.331 | -3, -0.346 |
| 48 | Notre Dame | 71.784 | 6-6 | 69.710 | +2, +0.455 |
| 49 | East Carolina | 71.113 | 9-5 | 67.771 | +3, +0.160 |
| 50 | Washington | 70.815 | 5-7 | 71.288 | -1, -0.515 |
| 51 | Houston | 70.739 | 10-4 | 64.413 | -11, -1.988 |
| 52 | Texas A&M | 70.623 | 6-7 | 69.883 | -10, -1.852 |
| 53 | UCLA | 70.385 | 7-6 | 70.694 | +0, -0.187 |
| 54 | Missouri | 70.381 | 8-5 | 68.579 | -11, -1.857 |
| 55 | Michigan St | 70.048 | 6-7 | 68.487 | +0, +0.719 |
| 56 | Troy | 68.518 | 9-3 | 62.468 | +0, -0.297 |
| 57 | Minnesota | 68.406 | 6-7 | 70.203 | +5, +0.821 |
| 58 | Kansas | 68.292 | 5-7 | 69.324 | -1, -0.426 |
| 59 | Virginia | 68.040 | 3-9 | 73.669 | +2, +0.246 |
| 60 | Nevada | 68.005 | 8-5 | 64.240 | +0, +0.169 |
| 61 | Northwestern | 67.930 | 8-5 | 64.487 | +12, +1.523 |
| 62 | Arizona St | 67.837 | 4-8 | 68.313 | -4, -0.568 |
| 63 | Middle Tennessee St | 67.817 | 10-3 | 60.557 | -4, -0.206 |
| 64 | Purdue | 67.438 | 5-7 | 68.094 | +7, +0.868 |
| 65 | Iowa St | 67.183 | 7-6 | 66.431 | -2, -0.370 |
| 66 | Fresno St | 67.090 | 8-5 | 65.070 | +2, +0.417 |
| 67 | Kansas St | 66.853 | 6-6 | 67.163 | -3, -0.635 |
| 68 | Central Florida | 66.755 | 8-5 | 65.226 | -3, -0.485 |
| 69 | Duke | 66.636 | 5-7 | 68.286 | +3, +0.138 |
| 70 | SMU | 66.618 | 8-5 | 64.614 | -3, -0.120 |
| 71 | Southern Miss | 66.537 | 7-6 | 62.703 | -5, -0.349 |
| 72 | North Carolina St | 66.477 | 5-7 | 67.613 | +2, +0.245 |
| 73 | Temple | 66.285 | 9-4 | 61.351 | -4, -0.378 |
| 74 | Baylor | 65.996 | 4-8 | 70.709 | -4, -0.616 |
| 75 | Louisiana Tech | 65.834 | 4-8 | 65.280 | +2, +0.393 |
| 76 | Ohio U. | 65.306 | 9-5 | 62.103 | +0, -0.327 |
| 77 | Syracuse | 65.251 | 4-8 | 69.023 | +2, +0.295 |
| 78 | Bowling Green | 64.838 | 7-6 | 63.169 | -3, -0.812 |
| 79 | Marshall | 64.763 | 7-6 | 66.197 | -1, -0.331 |
| 80 | Wyoming | 64.655 | 7-6 | 68.695 | +0, +0.359 |
| 81 | Maryland | 64.108 | 2-10 | 71.030 | +1, +0.236 |
| 82 | Michigan | 63.954 | 5-7 | 64.803 | +5, +0.928 |
| 83 | Illinois | 63.753 | 3-9 | 68.793 | +3, +0.670 |
| 84 | UNLV | 63.363 | 5-7 | 67.259 | +5, +0.562 |
| 85 | Northern Illinois | 63.358 | 7-6 | 59.706 | -4, -0.863 |
| 86 | Colorado | 63.293 | 3-9 | 69.907 | -3, -0.566 |
| 87 | Alabama-Birmingham | 63.256 | 5-7 | 65.736 | -3, -0.365 |
| 88 | Vanderbilt | 63.134 | 2-10 | 71.420 | -3, -0.152 |
| 89 | Louisville | 62.884 | 4-8 | 68.557 | -1, +0.025 |
| 90 | Indiana | 62.645 | 4-8 | 66.518 | +4, +0.867 |
| 91 | Tulsa | 62.378 | 5-7 | 63.243 | -1, -0.316 |
| 92 | Utah St | 62.075 | 4-8 | 66.200 | +1, +0.258 |
| 93 | Idaho | 62.017 | 8-5 | 63.832 | +2, +0.624 |
| 94 | San Diego St | 61.847 | 4-8 | 66.408 | +2, +0.506 |
| 95 | Buffalo | 61.767 | 5-7 | 61.953 | -4, -0.317 |
| 96 | Hawaii | 61.431 | 6-7 | 63.009 | +1, +0.632 |
| 97 | UTEP | 61.427 | 4-8 | 63.175 | -5, -0.432 |
| 98 | Colorado St | 60.558 | 3-9 | 67.963 | +0, +0.506 |
| 99 | Florida Atlantic | 58.603 | 5-7 | 61.940 | +0, -0.196 |
| 100 | Kent St | 58.429 | 5-7 | 59.857 | +0, -0.288 |
| 101 | Western Michigan | 57.935 | 5-7 | 60.320 | +1, -0.064 |
| 102 | Louisiana-Monroe | 57.829 | 6-6 | 61.085 | -1, -0.228 |
| 103 | Toledo | 57.023 | 5-7 | 61.920 | +0, -0.239 |
| 104 | Memphis | 56.577 | 2-10 | 66.145 | +0, -0.419 |
| 105 | Army | 55.628 | 5-7 | 60.596 | +2, +0.142 |
| 106 | Arkansas St | 55.480 | 4-8 | 59.176 | -1, -0.169 |
| 107 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 55.436 | 6-6 | 60.630 | -1, -0.207 |
| 108 | Ball St | 54.172 | 2-10 | 61.739 | +0, -0.278 |
| 109 | Tulane | 54.109 | 3-9 | 65.103 | +0, -0.337 |
| 109 | Washington St | 54.109 | 1-11 | 71.987 | +1, -0.262 |
| 111 | New Mexico | 53.463 | 1-11 | 69.115 | +3, +0.339 |
| 112 | Akron | 53.438 | 3-9 | 61.931 | -1, -0.179 |
| 113 | Miami OH | 52.953 | 1-11 | 66.688 | -1, -0.316 |
| 114 | North Texas | 52.946 | 2-10 | 60.764 | +1, -0.176 |
| 115 | Rice | 52.917 | 2-10 | 67.045 | -2, -0.271 |
| 116 | San Jose St | 52.578 | 2-10 | 66.617 | +1, +0.326 |
| 117 | Florida Int'l | 52.355 | 3-9 | 64.922 | -1, -0.221 |
| 118 | New Mexico St | 50.784 | 3-10 | 63.850 | +0, +0.308 |
| 119 | Western Kentucky | 45.956 | 0-12 | 61.825 | +0, -0.139 |
| 120 | Eastern Michigan | 45.284 | 0-12 | 63.060 | +0, -0.173 |
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