Saturday, January 2, 2010

2009/2010 Week 18 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 18 (games played thru 2-Jan).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

30 games down, only 4 to go!  And while there have been upsets and surprises in the games of the last week and there have been some big movers farther down in the rankings, the top-6 remain the same.

Alabama easily remains #1 although Florida did narrow the gap after dismantling Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU stays #3 after moving to that spot last week after the early success of the Mountain West Conference in the bowls and in fact extends the lead over Texas.  Virginia Tech and Arkansas both won their bowl games and keep their rankings, although VT did so impressively and improved their rating while Arkansas eked out their win and actually lost ratings points but narrowly stayed ahead of Boise State who moved up to #7 thanks to Cincinnati and Oregon both falling out of the top-10.  Georgia Tech and Ohio State also benefited from those teams dropping.

The computer has continued the good performance against the spread and is now 19-11.  A nice summary of the picks and performance is here.  Full prediction performance for the year is here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 92.063 13-0 71.945 +0, -0.012
2 Florida 88.347 13-1 71.694 +0, +1.074
3 TCU 87.631 12-0 66.649 +0, +0.598
4 Texas 85.906 13-0 69.109 +0, -0.783
5 Virginia Tech 83.960 10-3 73.302 +0, +1.227
6 Arkansas 80.753 8-5 72.532 +0, -1.073
7 Boise St 80.607 13-0 61.621 +3, -0.126
8 Georgia Tech 80.402 11-2 72.999 +4, +0.271
9 LSU 80.353 9-4 72.886 +0, -0.677
10 Ohio State 80.308 11-2 67.802 +7, +2.257
11 Oklahoma 80.153 8-5 70.858 +0, -0.529
12 Cincinnati 80.053 12-1 68.407 -4, -1.172
13 Oregon 79.947 10-3 72.073 -6, -1.561
14 Nebraska 79.313 10-4 69.191 +2, +1.057
15 Clemson 78.804 9-5 71.330 +0, +0.077
16 Texas Tech 78.553 9-4 67.803 -2, -0.696
17 Miami FL 78.538 9-4 72.317 -4, -0.818
18 Mississippi 78.378 9-4 70.066 +0, +0.364
19 Penn State 78.181 11-2 65.999 +5, +1.504
20 Brigham Young 77.938 11-2 68.155 +2, +0.567
21 Pittsburgh 77.858 10-3 69.074 -2, +0.151
22 Stanford 76.822 8-5 70.128 -1, -0.614
23 Auburn 76.517 8-5 72.235 +0, -0.843
24 Utah 76.426 10-3 67.206 +3, +0.369
25 Tennessee 76.313 7-6 71.687 -5, -1.265
26 Connecticut 76.035 8-5 69.325 +9, +1.233
27 North Carolina 76.024 8-5 70.356 +3, +0.396
28 Iowa 76.019 10-2 68.283 +6, +0.865
29 Southern Cal 75.978 9-4 70.688 -3, -0.315
30 Georgia 75.857 8-5 73.111 +1, +0.576
31 Oregon St 75.514 8-5 69.872 -3, -0.519
32 Air Force 74.620 8-5 65.889 +13, +2.520
33 Florida St 74.606 7-6 73.780 +6, +1.659
34 Arizona 74.591 8-5 71.385 -9, -1.800
35 Oklahoma St 74.142 9-4 69.003 -6, -1.881
36 Mississippi St 74.088 5-7 73.272 +0, -0.356
37 Wisconsin 73.973 10-3 67.132 +10, +2.196
38 West Virginia 73.952 9-4 69.928 -6, -1.279
39 Kentucky 73.726 7-6 70.058 -2, -0.294
40 South Carolina 73.718 7-6 73.855 -7, -1.445
41 Rutgers 73.046 9-4 62.546 -3, -0.002
42 Navy 72.320 10-4 65.906 +12, +2.178
43 Boston College 72.135 8-5 69.459 +3, +0.298
44 California 72.114 8-5 70.437 -3, -0.395
45 South Florida 71.927 8-5 66.944 +6, +0.819
46 Wake Forest 71.853 5-7 71.331 +2, +0.307
47 Central Michigan 71.820 11-2 60.331 -3, -0.346
48 Notre Dame 71.784 6-6 69.710 +2, +0.455
49 East Carolina 71.113 9-5 67.771 +3, +0.160
50 Washington 70.815 5-7 71.288 -1, -0.515
51 Houston 70.739 10-4 64.413 -11, -1.988
52 Texas A&M 70.623 6-7 69.883 -10, -1.852
53 UCLA 70.385 7-6 70.694 +0, -0.187
54 Missouri 70.381 8-5 68.579 -11, -1.857
55 Michigan St 70.048 6-7 68.487 +0, +0.719
56 Troy 68.518 9-3 62.468 +0, -0.297
57 Minnesota 68.406 6-7 70.203 +5, +0.821
58 Kansas 68.292 5-7 69.324 -1, -0.426
59 Virginia 68.040 3-9 73.669 +2, +0.246
60 Nevada 68.005 8-5 64.240 +0, +0.169
61 Northwestern 67.930 8-5 64.487 +12, +1.523
62 Arizona St 67.837 4-8 68.313 -4, -0.568
63 Middle Tennessee St 67.817 10-3 60.557 -4, -0.206
64 Purdue 67.438 5-7 68.094 +7, +0.868
65 Iowa St 67.183 7-6 66.431 -2, -0.370
66 Fresno St 67.090 8-5 65.070 +2, +0.417
67 Kansas St 66.853 6-6 67.163 -3, -0.635
68 Central Florida 66.755 8-5 65.226 -3, -0.485
69 Duke 66.636 5-7 68.286 +3, +0.138
70 SMU 66.618 8-5 64.614 -3, -0.120
71 Southern Miss 66.537 7-6 62.703 -5, -0.349
72 North Carolina St 66.477 5-7 67.613 +2, +0.245
73 Temple 66.285 9-4 61.351 -4, -0.378
74 Baylor 65.996 4-8 70.709 -4, -0.616
75 Louisiana Tech 65.834 4-8 65.280 +2, +0.393
76 Ohio U. 65.306 9-5 62.103 +0, -0.327
77 Syracuse 65.251 4-8 69.023 +2, +0.295
78 Bowling Green 64.838 7-6 63.169 -3, -0.812
79 Marshall 64.763 7-6 66.197 -1, -0.331
80 Wyoming 64.655 7-6 68.695 +0, +0.359
81 Maryland 64.108 2-10 71.030 +1, +0.236
82 Michigan 63.954 5-7 64.803 +5, +0.928
83 Illinois 63.753 3-9 68.793 +3, +0.670
84 UNLV 63.363 5-7 67.259 +5, +0.562
85 Northern Illinois 63.358 7-6 59.706 -4, -0.863
86 Colorado 63.293 3-9 69.907 -3, -0.566
87 Alabama-Birmingham 63.256 5-7 65.736 -3, -0.365
88 Vanderbilt 63.134 2-10 71.420 -3, -0.152
89 Louisville 62.884 4-8 68.557 -1, +0.025
90 Indiana 62.645 4-8 66.518 +4, +0.867
91 Tulsa 62.378 5-7 63.243 -1, -0.316
92 Utah St 62.075 4-8 66.200 +1, +0.258
93 Idaho 62.017 8-5 63.832 +2, +0.624
94 San Diego St 61.847 4-8 66.408 +2, +0.506
95 Buffalo 61.767 5-7 61.953 -4, -0.317
96 Hawaii 61.431 6-7 63.009 +1, +0.632
97 UTEP 61.427 4-8 63.175 -5, -0.432
98 Colorado St 60.558 3-9 67.963 +0, +0.506
99 Florida Atlantic 58.603 5-7 61.940 +0, -0.196
100 Kent St 58.429 5-7 59.857 +0, -0.288
101 Western Michigan 57.935 5-7 60.320 +1, -0.064
102 Louisiana-Monroe 57.829 6-6 61.085 -1, -0.228
103 Toledo 57.023 5-7 61.920 +0, -0.239
104 Memphis 56.577 2-10 66.145 +0, -0.419
105 Army 55.628 5-7 60.596 +2, +0.142
106 Arkansas St 55.480 4-8 59.176 -1, -0.169
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.436 6-6 60.630 -1, -0.207
108 Ball St 54.172 2-10 61.739 +0, -0.278
109 Tulane 54.109 3-9 65.103 +0, -0.337
109 Washington St 54.109 1-11 71.987 +1, -0.262
111 New Mexico 53.463 1-11 69.115 +3, +0.339
112 Akron 53.438 3-9 61.931 -1, -0.179
113 Miami OH 52.953 1-11 66.688 -1, -0.316
114 North Texas 52.946 2-10 60.764 +1, -0.176
115 Rice 52.917 2-10 67.045 -2, -0.271
116 San Jose St 52.578 2-10 66.617 +1, +0.326
117 Florida Int'l 52.355 3-9 64.922 -1, -0.221
118 New Mexico St 50.784 3-10 63.850 +0, +0.308
119 Western Kentucky 45.956 0-12 61.825 +0, -0.139
120 Eastern Michigan 45.284 0-12 63.060 +0, -0.173