Thursday, January 7, 2010

2009/2010 Week 19 and Final College Football Ratings and Rankings

Ratings through week 19 (games played thru 7-Jan-2010).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

And Alabama comes through winning the championship game and affirming the clear #1 ranking the computer had given them throughout much of the year.  They were #1 every week but one since week 4 of the season and had a 5 ratings point lead over #2 at the end of the pre-bowl season and maintained that through the bowls.

Behind Alabama, the rest of the top-5 stay the same as coming into this week which may be surprising, but isn't when you look at the details.  Florida deserves the #2 spot having lost only to Alabama and dominated a previously undefeated Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU lost, and dropped nearly 2.5 ratings points, but Texas behind them also dropped over 1 ratings point to stay behind them, and while Boise State beat TCU and gained 2.6 ratings points, the gap was too big for them to make it all up.  What the computer is saying is if TCU played any of the team behind them on a neutral field, TCU would be favored to win.

And the computer had a fantastic bowl season predicting games, so its ratings and rankings must not be so bad.  It went 22-11-1 against the spread, a 67% clip which I'm very pleased with.  Results for the full season are here but that great bowl season just extended a good regular season bringing the total to 417-316-12.

Now it will be time to turn the computer's attention to basketball, so stay tuned for more on that.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 93.247 14-0 72.882 +0, +1.184
2 Florida 88.519 13-1 71.748 +0, +0.172
3 TCU 85.160 12-1 67.725 +0, -2.471
4 Texas 84.861 13-1 70.714 +0, -1.045
5 Virginia Tech 83.722 10-3 73.107 +0, -0.238
6 Boise St 83.207 14-0 63.526 +1, +2.600
7 Arkansas 80.847 8-5 72.646 -1, +0.094
8 Ohio State 80.804 11-2 68.235 +2, +0.496
9 LSU 80.531 9-4 73.061 +0, +0.178
10 Oregon 80.294 10-3 72.403 +3, +0.347
11 Cincinnati 80.094 12-1 68.474 +1, +0.041
12 Oklahoma 79.944 8-5 70.661 -1, -0.209
13 Nebraska 79.176 10-4 69.048 +1, -0.137
14 Georgia Tech 78.947 11-3 73.091 -6, -1.455
15 Penn State 78.684 11-2 66.420 +4, +0.503
16 Mississippi 78.455 9-4 70.151 +2, +0.077
17 Texas Tech 78.405 9-4 67.664 -1, -0.148
18 Clemson 78.241 9-5 70.796 -3, -0.563
19 Miami FL 78.219 9-4 72.025 -2, -0.319
20 Iowa 78.032 11-2 69.404 +8, +2.013
21 Pittsburgh 77.808 10-3 69.043 +0, -0.050
22 Brigham Young 77.546 11-2 67.851 -2, -0.392
23 Stanford 76.909 8-5 70.226 -1, +0.087
24 Auburn 76.644 8-5 72.407 -1, +0.127
25 Tennessee 76.297 7-6 71.768 +0, -0.016
26 Southern Cal 76.122 9-4 70.845 +3, +0.144
27 Utah 76.119 10-3 66.985 -3, -0.307
28 Connecticut 76.000 8-5 69.291 -2, -0.035
29 Georgia 75.719 8-5 73.011 +1, -0.138
30 North Carolina 75.707 8-5 70.071 -3, -0.317
31 Oregon St 75.574 8-5 69.945 +0, +0.060
32 Arizona 74.827 8-5 71.635 +2, +0.236
33 Wisconsin 74.447 10-3 67.553 +4, +0.474
34 Air Force 74.358 8-5 65.617 -2, -0.262
35 Florida St 74.277 7-6 73.475 -2, -0.329
36 Mississippi St 74.031 5-7 73.274 +0, -0.057
37 Oklahoma St 73.987 9-4 68.852 -2, -0.155
38 West Virginia 73.893 9-4 69.886 +0, -0.059
39 Kentucky 73.700 7-6 70.102 +0, -0.026
40 South Carolina 73.666 7-6 73.878 +0, -0.052
41 Rutgers 72.994 9-4 62.510 +0, -0.052
42 Navy 72.358 10-4 65.951 +0, +0.038
43 California 72.216 8-5 70.534 +1, +0.102
44 Boston College 71.964 8-5 69.295 -1, -0.171
45 Notre Dame 71.919 6-6 69.853 +3, +0.135
46 Central Michigan 71.909 12-2 61.036 +1, +0.089
47 South Florida 71.867 8-5 66.893 -2, -0.060
48 Wake Forest 71.568 5-7 71.021 -2, -0.285
49 East Carolina 71.034 9-5 67.694 +0, -0.079
50 Washington 70.970 5-7 71.449 +0, +0.155
51 Houston 70.638 10-4 64.332 +0, -0.101
52 Texas A&M 70.496 6-7 69.760 +0, -0.127
53 UCLA 70.488 7-6 70.790 +0, +0.103
54 Michigan St 70.464 6-7 68.892 +1, +0.416
55 Missouri 70.323 8-5 68.511 -1, -0.058
56 Minnesota 68.794 6-7 70.605 +1, +0.388
57 Troy 68.567 9-4 63.203 -1, +0.049
58 Northwestern 68.458 8-5 64.899 +3, +0.528
59 Nevada 68.265 8-5 64.583 +1, +0.260
60 Kansas 68.133 5-7 69.145 -2, -0.159
61 Arizona St 67.958 4-8 68.416 +1, +0.121
62 Purdue 67.797 5-7 68.440 +2, +0.359
63 Middle Tennessee St 67.733 10-3 60.467 +0, -0.084
64 Virginia 67.658 3-9 73.181 -5, -0.382
65 Fresno St 67.452 8-5 65.474 +1, +0.362
66 Iowa St 67.277 7-6 66.550 -1, +0.094
67 Kansas St 66.786 6-6 67.097 +0, -0.067
68 Central Florida 66.638 8-5 65.081 +0, -0.117
69 SMU 66.562 8-5 64.428 +1, -0.056
70 Southern Miss 66.445 7-6 62.616 +1, -0.092
71 Temple 66.386 9-4 61.461 +2, +0.101
72 Duke 66.295 5-7 67.978 -3, -0.341
73 Louisiana Tech 66.239 4-8 65.693 +2, +0.405
74 North Carolina St 66.228 5-7 67.399 -2, -0.249
75 Baylor 65.849 4-8 70.544 -1, -0.147
76 Ohio U. 65.387 9-5 62.178 +0, +0.081
77 Syracuse 65.340 4-8 69.131 +0, +0.089
78 Bowling Green 65.060 7-6 63.452 +0, +0.222
79 Marshall 64.732 7-6 66.156 +0, -0.031
80 Wyoming 64.425 7-6 68.329 +0, -0.230
81 Michigan 64.334 5-7 65.254 +1, +0.380
82 Illinois 64.096 3-9 69.115 +1, +0.343
83 Maryland 63.883 2-10 70.812 -2, -0.225
84 Northern Illinois 63.504 7-6 59.863 +1, +0.146
85 UNLV 63.213 5-7 66.983 -1, -0.150
86 Alabama-Birmingham 63.200 5-7 65.686 +1, -0.056
87 Colorado 63.186 3-9 69.745 -1, -0.107
88 Indiana 63.026 4-8 66.935 +2, +0.381
89 Vanderbilt 62.976 2-10 71.299 -1, -0.158
90 Louisville 62.833 4-8 68.509 -1, -0.051
91 Tulsa 62.401 5-7 63.396 +0, +0.023
92 Utah St 62.399 4-8 66.521 +0, +0.324
93 Idaho 62.310 8-5 64.211 +0, +0.293
94 Buffalo 61.846 5-7 62.019 +1, +0.079
95 Hawaii 61.765 6-7 63.406 +1, +0.334
96 San Diego St 61.690 4-8 66.127 -2, -0.157
97 UTEP 61.375 4-8 63.061 +0, -0.052
98 Colorado St 60.439 3-9 67.665 +0, -0.119
99 Florida Atlantic 58.551 5-7 61.882 +0, -0.052
100 Kent St 58.510 5-7 59.925 +0, +0.081
101 Western Michigan 58.090 5-7 60.490 +0, +0.155
102 Louisiana-Monroe 57.806 6-6 60.987 +0, -0.023
103 Toledo 57.143 5-7 62.068 +0, +0.120
104 Memphis 56.525 2-10 66.101 +0, -0.052
105 Army 55.590 5-7 60.558 +0, -0.038
106 Arkansas St 55.405 4-8 59.314 +0, -0.075
106 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.405 6-6 60.609 +1, -0.031
108 Ball St 54.263 2-10 61.830 +0, +0.091
109 Washington St 54.241 1-11 72.134 +0, +0.132
110 Tulane 54.054 3-9 65.043 -1, -0.055
111 Akron 53.577 3-9 62.090 +1, +0.139
112 New Mexico 53.416 1-11 68.766 -1, -0.047
113 Miami OH 53.096 1-11 67.032 +0, +0.143
114 North Texas 52.929 2-10 60.853 +0, -0.017
115 Rice 52.851 2-10 66.969 +0, -0.066
116 San Jose St 52.815 2-10 67.009 +0, +0.237
117 Florida Int'l 52.340 3-9 65.020 +0, -0.015
118 New Mexico St 50.934 3-10 64.241 +0, +0.150
119 Western Kentucky 45.936 0-12 61.805 +0, -0.020
120 Eastern Michigan 45.385 0-12 63.218 +0, +0.101