One week to the Super Bowl

With the Super Bowl one week away, it is time to start to take a closer look at the combatants and the match up.  Newsletter subscribers already received a detailed preview and that preview will be posted on the Playoffs Preview page shortly before kickoff for all to see.

While it has not been common to have the #1 seeds from each conference make it to the Super Bowl, it happened this year just as the computer predicted.  Now, it is easy to pick the #1 seeds to make it, but the computer had the Saints and Colts far and away the favorites at 59.7% and 32.7% chance of making it thus far.

So, they made it.  How do they match up?  Below are the performance charts for each team through the end of the regular season.  The charts including playoff games is in the full preview to be posted later.

Both teams were the clear #1 and #2 all season until they let up on the accelerator late in the year, although the Saints had a large enough cushion to stay #1 even with the 3 losses.  If you believe the real indication of the quality of the teams was what they had done in week 14 or 15, New Orleans should be the pick to win.  And even with both teams getting back in the swing of things in the playoffs, New Orleans as stayed #1 with Indianapolis now up to #2 in the current rankings.

So what does that mean the prediction is?  The computer is picking the Saints by 1.4 which obviously makes the pick against the spread the Saints plus the points.

Stay tuned for the full preview with more details on the web-site later!

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/24/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played yesterday.

In the NBA, Cleveland remains #1 and the Lakers #2 but there is jostling behind them with Utah, Orlando, and Denver moving up at Atlanta, Boston, and San Antonio's expense.  All these teams are close though so a loss or big win here and there can cause movement.

In College, Kansas moves to #1 as Duke's loss drops them to #2.  Texas' second loss drops them to #6 and Kentucky still isn't getting credit from the computer for being undefeated moving up only to #10.

And There Were Two - Colts vs Saints

We now know the Superbowl contestants and with form holding, which it rarely does, we have the top 2 teams from the regular season in each conference facing off. And while they weren't #1 and #2 coming in to this weekend (#1 and #5), they were every meaningful week of the season since week 5 and are once again in the week 20 rankings below.  As usual, the current rankings can always be found here.

The computer did pick the winners in both championship games, but had the wrong side of the spread in the Indy game with the Jets inability to score in the second half letting that margin grow too large and got a push in the New Orleans game where they simply let the Vikings have try after try to tie the score keeping that one too close.  That drops the post reason record to 5-4-1 against the spread but increases the picks on winners to 7-3.  See this page for details.

Look for a Superbowl preview soon, and as usual newsletter subscribers will get a detailed preview this week including some "what if" scenarios of what the prediction would be if Indy and NO hadn't shut things down.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	87.906	15-3	80.664	+0, -0.154
2	Indianapolis	86.548	16-2	80.619	+3, +0.663
3	Minnesota	85.969	13-5	79.763	+0, +0.062
4	Dallas	85.840	12-6	81.133	+0, -0.056
5	New England	85.586	10-7	82.233	+1, -0.048
6	NY Jets	85.462	11-8	82.582	-4, -0.585
7	San Diego	84.931	13-4	79.766	+0, -0.065
8	Baltimore	84.815	10-8	81.295	+0, +0.063
9	Green Bay	84.750	11-6	79.329	+0, +0.019
10	Philadelphia	84.119	11-6	81.362	+0, -0.047
11	Carolina	83.923	8-8	82.880	+0, -0.095
12	Atlanta	83.820	9-7	82.390	+0, -0.103
13	Houston	82.787	9-7	80.331	+0, +0.058
14	Pittsburgh	82.139	9-7	79.998	+0, -0.014
15	Arizona	81.847	11-7	79.724	+0, +0.052
16	San Francisco	81.324	8-8	79.202	+1, +0.060
17	Cincinnati	81.275	10-7	80.638	-1, -0.093
18	Miami	80.929	7-9	83.163	+0, -0.059
19	Tennessee	80.637	8-8	81.302	+0, +0.066
20	Buffalo	80.400	6-10	82.456	+0, -0.049
21	NY Giants	80.209	8-8	81.886	+0, -0.052
22	Denver	80.109	8-8	80.860	+0, -0.009
23	Chicago	78.455	7-9	80.051	+0, +0.010
24	Tampa Bay	77.621	3-13	83.317	+0, -0.104
25	Jacksonville	77.402	7-9	80.746	+0, +0.039
26	Washington	77.022	4-12	80.536	+0, -0.056
27	Cleveland	76.182	5-11	80.507	+0, -0.013
28	Kansas City	75.521	4-12	80.538	+0, -0.038
29	Oakland	74.563	5-11	81.311	+0, -0.060
30	Seattle	74.459	5-11	79.780	+0, +0.058
31	St Louis	70.285	1-15	80.393	+0, +0.072
32	Detroit	69.560	2-14	80.975	+0, +0.015

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/17/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played yesterday.

In the NBA, Cleveland remains #1 by a healthy margin over a new #2 in the Lakers.  The Lakers move up not so much because they had a great week but because Boston went 1-2 and fell.  The next 5 in San Antonio, Atlanta, Utah, Orlando, and Denver are very close behind, the 7 spots behind Cleveland all being covered by less than 1 rating point.

In College, Duke remains #1 by over 2 ratings points with Kansas and Texas very close behind.  Why isn't Texas, or even Kentucky rated higher given they are undefeated?  It is helpful to look at the performance charts for this, so here is Duke, Texas, and Kentucky for comparison.

While Duke has losses, they also have more highs than Texas or Kentucky.  Duke has 5 games scoring over 100 ratings points (Charlotte, Gonzaga, Clemson, Iowa St, and Wake Forest) while Texas has only 2 (Pitt and USC) and Kentucky just 1 (Florida).  And even in their 2 losses Duke scored 91 and 88 ratings points, while Texas has 4 wins that scored under 90 ratings points (Rice, Gardner-Webb, TAMU-Corpus Christi, and Texas A&M) and Kentucky has 8 such games.

In the end, the computer thinks Duke is better than Texas and Kentucky even though they have 2 losses and the others are undefeated.

NFL Divisional Round Rankings and Summary

Three of the games weren't terribly compelling, but the last one was, and in any case we are down to the final 4 teams with 3 expected to be there and one big surprise.

But should we really be surprised?  The computer had the Jets in the top-10 since week 14 and had them #6 coming in to this game less than 0.4 ratings points behind the Chargers.  This made them a clear pick plus the points and they pulled off the minor upset.

The result is that they move to #2 behind the Saints who continue to hold a pretty clear margin at #1.  Very close behind the Jets are the other combatants in next weeks games plus Dallas is still at #4 on the strength of their December finish and big wins over Philly.  Even though the Colts are #5, we know this is due to not playing starters the last 2 games and thus probably isn't representative of where they should really be rated.  Even so #2 thru #5 are less than 0.17 ratings points apart so not much between them.

The computer has done fairly well picking games in the playoffs going 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 picking winners.  See the 2010 NFL Playoffs Previews for more details on the picks and performance.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	88.060	14-3	80.612	+0, +0.599
2	NY Jets	86.047	11-7	82.209	+4, +0.611
3	Minnesota	85.907	13-4	79.103	+6, +1.173
4	Dallas	85.896	12-6	81.180	-2, -1.355
5	Indianapolis	85.885	15-2	80.514	+2, +0.932
6	New England	85.634	10-7	82.286	-1, +0.141
7	San Diego	84.996	13-4	79.828	-4, -0.793
8	Baltimore	84.752	10-8	81.244	-4, -0.783
9	Green Bay	84.731	11-6	79.315	-1, -0.091
10	Philadelphia	84.166	11-6	81.417	+0, -0.403
11	Carolina	84.018	8-8	82.977	+0, +0.136
12	Atlanta	83.923	9-7	82.490	+0, +0.048
13	Houston	82.729	9-7	80.276	+0, +0.208
14	Pittsburgh	82.153	9-7	80.007	+0, -0.122
15	Arizona	81.795	11-7	79.667	+0, -0.382
16	Cincinnati	81.368	10-7	80.703	+0, -0.001
17	San Francisco	81.264	8-8	79.130	+0, +0.066
18	Miami	80.988	7-9	83.230	+0, +0.210
19	Tennessee	80.571	8-8	81.243	+1, +0.138
20	Buffalo	80.449	6-10	82.523	+2, +0.234
21	NY Giants	80.261	8-8	81.938	-2, -0.217
22	Denver	80.118	8-8	80.859	-1, -0.300
23	Chicago	78.445	7-9	80.037	+0, +0.058
24	Tampa Bay	77.725	3-13	83.416	+0, +0.075
25	Jacksonville	77.363	7-9	80.682	+1, +0.167
26	Washington	77.078	4-12	80.589	-1, -0.292
27	Cleveland	76.195	5-11	80.517	+0, -0.120
28	Kansas City	75.559	4-12	80.572	+0, -0.301
29	Oakland	74.623	5-11	81.375	+0, -0.280
30	Seattle	74.401	5-11	79.709	+0, +0.058
31	St Louis	70.213	1-15	80.327	+0, +0.122
32	Detroit	69.545	2-14	80.965	+0, +0.021

Updated Superbowl Odds (1/10)

With 2 teams eliminated and 2 teams through, it is time to take a look at how the Superbowl odds have changed.

The Saints remain the team most likely to get to the Superbowl in large part due to the Eagles no longer being a possible opponent.  While they couldn't beat Dallas this year, Philly was rated fairly highly, certainly higher than Arizona.

Naturally the Jets and Cowboys improved as they are past the first game, and in fact they move ahead of Minnesota for winning, but not getting to, the Superbowl.  The computer is presently calling the Dallas at Minnesota game pretty much a pick'em right now as Dallas is rated higher.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
New Orleans	0.597	0.336
Indianapolis	0.327	0.178
San Diego	0.280	0.160
Dallas	0.237	0.133
NY Jets	0.189	0.108
Minnesota	0.209	0.099
New England	0.157	0.096
Green Bay	0.108	0.053
Baltimore	0.048	0.024
Arizona	0.057	0.022
Cincinnati	0.000	0.000
Philadelphia	0.000	0.000

Good Start to the Playoffs

The computer is off to a good start predicting playoff games going 2-0 picking winners and against the spread yesterday.  See the detailed picks/preview for the Jets/Bengals and Eagles/Cowboys for more info.  Also see the summary for the full playoffs here.

Today, the computer likes New England to cover and Green Bay to win, although the pick against the spread depends on what line you get.  The detailed preview for the Packers/Cardinals will go up shortly before game time.

Enjoy the games!

2009/2010 Week 19 and Final College Football Ratings and Rankings

Ratings through week 19 (games played thru 7-Jan-2010).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

And Alabama comes through winning the championship game and affirming the clear #1 ranking the computer had given them throughout much of the year.  They were #1 every week but one since week 4 of the season and had a 5 ratings point lead over #2 at the end of the pre-bowl season and maintained that through the bowls.

Behind Alabama, the rest of the top-5 stay the same as coming into this week which may be surprising, but isn't when you look at the details.  Florida deserves the #2 spot having lost only to Alabama and dominated a previously undefeated Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU lost, and dropped nearly 2.5 ratings points, but Texas behind them also dropped over 1 ratings point to stay behind them, and while Boise State beat TCU and gained 2.6 ratings points, the gap was too big for them to make it all up.  What the computer is saying is if TCU played any of the team behind them on a neutral field, TCU would be favored to win.

And the computer had a fantastic bowl season predicting games, so its ratings and rankings must not be so bad.  It went 22-11-1 against the spread, a 67% clip which I'm very pleased with.  Results for the full season are here but that great bowl season just extended a good regular season bringing the total to 417-316-12.

Now it will be time to turn the computer's attention to basketball, so stay tuned for more on that.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	93.247	14-0	72.882	+0, +1.184
2	Florida	88.519	13-1	71.748	+0, +0.172
3	TCU	85.160	12-1	67.725	+0, -2.471
4	Texas	84.861	13-1	70.714	+0, -1.045
5	Virginia Tech	83.722	10-3	73.107	+0, -0.238
6	Boise St	83.207	14-0	63.526	+1, +2.600
7	Arkansas	80.847	8-5	72.646	-1, +0.094
8	Ohio State	80.804	11-2	68.235	+2, +0.496
9	LSU	80.531	9-4	73.061	+0, +0.178
10	Oregon	80.294	10-3	72.403	+3, +0.347
11	Cincinnati	80.094	12-1	68.474	+1, +0.041
12	Oklahoma	79.944	8-5	70.661	-1, -0.209
13	Nebraska	79.176	10-4	69.048	+1, -0.137
14	Georgia Tech	78.947	11-3	73.091	-6, -1.455
15	Penn State	78.684	11-2	66.420	+4, +0.503
16	Mississippi	78.455	9-4	70.151	+2, +0.077
17	Texas Tech	78.405	9-4	67.664	-1, -0.148
18	Clemson	78.241	9-5	70.796	-3, -0.563
19	Miami FL	78.219	9-4	72.025	-2, -0.319
20	Iowa	78.032	11-2	69.404	+8, +2.013
21	Pittsburgh	77.808	10-3	69.043	+0, -0.050
22	Brigham Young	77.546	11-2	67.851	-2, -0.392
23	Stanford	76.909	8-5	70.226	-1, +0.087
24	Auburn	76.644	8-5	72.407	-1, +0.127
25	Tennessee	76.297	7-6	71.768	+0, -0.016
26	Southern Cal	76.122	9-4	70.845	+3, +0.144
27	Utah	76.119	10-3	66.985	-3, -0.307
28	Connecticut	76.000	8-5	69.291	-2, -0.035
29	Georgia	75.719	8-5	73.011	+1, -0.138
30	North Carolina	75.707	8-5	70.071	-3, -0.317
31	Oregon St	75.574	8-5	69.945	+0, +0.060
32	Arizona	74.827	8-5	71.635	+2, +0.236
33	Wisconsin	74.447	10-3	67.553	+4, +0.474
34	Air Force	74.358	8-5	65.617	-2, -0.262
35	Florida St	74.277	7-6	73.475	-2, -0.329
36	Mississippi St	74.031	5-7	73.274	+0, -0.057
37	Oklahoma St	73.987	9-4	68.852	-2, -0.155
38	West Virginia	73.893	9-4	69.886	+0, -0.059
39	Kentucky	73.700	7-6	70.102	+0, -0.026
40	South Carolina	73.666	7-6	73.878	+0, -0.052
41	Rutgers	72.994	9-4	62.510	+0, -0.052
42	Navy	72.358	10-4	65.951	+0, +0.038
43	California	72.216	8-5	70.534	+1, +0.102
44	Boston College	71.964	8-5	69.295	-1, -0.171
45	Notre Dame	71.919	6-6	69.853	+3, +0.135
46	Central Michigan	71.909	12-2	61.036	+1, +0.089
47	South Florida	71.867	8-5	66.893	-2, -0.060
48	Wake Forest	71.568	5-7	71.021	-2, -0.285
49	East Carolina	71.034	9-5	67.694	+0, -0.079
50	Washington	70.970	5-7	71.449	+0, +0.155
51	Houston	70.638	10-4	64.332	+0, -0.101
52	Texas A&M	70.496	6-7	69.760	+0, -0.127
53	UCLA	70.488	7-6	70.790	+0, +0.103
54	Michigan St	70.464	6-7	68.892	+1, +0.416
55	Missouri	70.323	8-5	68.511	-1, -0.058
56	Minnesota	68.794	6-7	70.605	+1, +0.388
57	Troy	68.567	9-4	63.203	-1, +0.049
58	Northwestern	68.458	8-5	64.899	+3, +0.528
59	Nevada	68.265	8-5	64.583	+1, +0.260
60	Kansas	68.133	5-7	69.145	-2, -0.159
61	Arizona St	67.958	4-8	68.416	+1, +0.121
62	Purdue	67.797	5-7	68.440	+2, +0.359
63	Middle Tennessee St	67.733	10-3	60.467	+0, -0.084
64	Virginia	67.658	3-9	73.181	-5, -0.382
65	Fresno St	67.452	8-5	65.474	+1, +0.362
66	Iowa St	67.277	7-6	66.550	-1, +0.094
67	Kansas St	66.786	6-6	67.097	+0, -0.067
68	Central Florida	66.638	8-5	65.081	+0, -0.117
69	SMU	66.562	8-5	64.428	+1, -0.056
70	Southern Miss	66.445	7-6	62.616	+1, -0.092
71	Temple	66.386	9-4	61.461	+2, +0.101
72	Duke	66.295	5-7	67.978	-3, -0.341
73	Louisiana Tech	66.239	4-8	65.693	+2, +0.405
74	North Carolina St	66.228	5-7	67.399	-2, -0.249
75	Baylor	65.849	4-8	70.544	-1, -0.147
76	Ohio U.	65.387	9-5	62.178	+0, +0.081
77	Syracuse	65.340	4-8	69.131	+0, +0.089
78	Bowling Green	65.060	7-6	63.452	+0, +0.222
79	Marshall	64.732	7-6	66.156	+0, -0.031
80	Wyoming	64.425	7-6	68.329	+0, -0.230
81	Michigan	64.334	5-7	65.254	+1, +0.380
82	Illinois	64.096	3-9	69.115	+1, +0.343
83	Maryland	63.883	2-10	70.812	-2, -0.225
84	Northern Illinois	63.504	7-6	59.863	+1, +0.146
85	UNLV	63.213	5-7	66.983	-1, -0.150
86	Alabama-Birmingham	63.200	5-7	65.686	+1, -0.056
87	Colorado	63.186	3-9	69.745	-1, -0.107
88	Indiana	63.026	4-8	66.935	+2, +0.381
89	Vanderbilt	62.976	2-10	71.299	-1, -0.158
90	Louisville	62.833	4-8	68.509	-1, -0.051
91	Tulsa	62.401	5-7	63.396	+0, +0.023
92	Utah St	62.399	4-8	66.521	+0, +0.324
93	Idaho	62.310	8-5	64.211	+0, +0.293
94	Buffalo	61.846	5-7	62.019	+1, +0.079
95	Hawaii	61.765	6-7	63.406	+1, +0.334
96	San Diego St	61.690	4-8	66.127	-2, -0.157
97	UTEP	61.375	4-8	63.061	+0, -0.052
98	Colorado St	60.439	3-9	67.665	+0, -0.119
99	Florida Atlantic	58.551	5-7	61.882	+0, -0.052
100	Kent St	58.510	5-7	59.925	+0, +0.081
101	Western Michigan	58.090	5-7	60.490	+0, +0.155
102	Louisiana-Monroe	57.806	6-6	60.987	+0, -0.023
103	Toledo	57.143	5-7	62.068	+0, +0.120
104	Memphis	56.525	2-10	66.101	+0, -0.052
105	Army	55.590	5-7	60.558	+0, -0.038
106	Arkansas St	55.405	4-8	59.314	+0, -0.075
106	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.405	6-6	60.609	+1, -0.031
108	Ball St	54.263	2-10	61.830	+0, +0.091
109	Washington St	54.241	1-11	72.134	+0, +0.132
110	Tulane	54.054	3-9	65.043	-1, -0.055
111	Akron	53.577	3-9	62.090	+1, +0.139
112	New Mexico	53.416	1-11	68.766	-1, -0.047
113	Miami OH	53.096	1-11	67.032	+0, +0.143
114	North Texas	52.929	2-10	60.853	+0, -0.017
115	Rice	52.851	2-10	66.969	+0, -0.066
116	San Jose St	52.815	2-10	67.009	+0, +0.237
117	Florida Int'l	52.340	3-9	65.020	+0, -0.015
118	New Mexico St	50.934	3-10	64.241	+0, +0.150
119	Western Kentucky	45.936	0-12	61.805	+0, -0.020
120	Eastern Michigan	45.385	0-12	63.218	+0, +0.101

NBA Rankings Through January 3rd

I've updated the NBA rankings on the Schmidt Computer Ratings website through yesterday's games.

The top 3 stay the same but Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers are all within about 1.5 ratings points so they are close.  Orlando and San Antonio move up a bit this week and are nipping at the heels of the Lakers.

I haven't spent the time to try to track the spreads for all the games and tune the computer to maximize the performance there, but am starting to and in the games I tracked last week the computer went 5-2 against the spread.  The picks for tonight's games are:

• Miami +1.5 over Atlanta
• Ok City +2.5 over Chicago
• New Orleans +8 over Utah
• Portland +4 over the Clippers

While it is picking underdogs in each of these games, 5 of the 7 last week it picked favorites.

Enjoy

Superbowl Odds

With the playoff teams finally nailed down and week 17 complete, the computer can now run its calculations to identify the chance of each team getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Interestingly, despite the Colts being ranked #8 now after the 2 losses, they are still the AFC favorite to get to the Superbowl and the #2 pick to win it.  The getting to the Superbowl is due to having home field advantage throughout the playoffs and New Orleans benefits from that too with even a higher chance of getting to the Superbowl than the Colts.

As you might expect, the other teams with first round byes also are the other 2 with the best chance those being the Chargers and Vikings.  The best of the rest are the Patriots and Dallas and the rest are pretty slim.  But the chances for Arizona were pretty slim last year too.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
New Orleans	0.440	0.249
Indianapolis	0.352	0.163
San Diego	0.298	0.145
Minnesota	0.242	0.117
New England	0.153	0.079
Dallas	0.140	0.077
NY Jets	0.093	0.044
Green Bay	0.080	0.040
Philadelphia	0.052	0.026
Baltimore	0.050	0.022
Cincinnati	0.053	0.020
Arizona	0.044	0.018

Wildcard Weekend Preview

I'll likely post another entry as the lines get published and settle in, but I've posted early picks for wildcard weekend here.

In what I believe is a first, three of the four games are rematches of the final week of the season, two of those three even at the same location.

Green Bay goes back to Arizona where they just won 33-7 and based in large part on that win the computer picks them by 0.5.  As Arizona sat starters, the 33-7 is probably not indicative of the real Arizona team, but did sitting starters ruin whatever momentum they had?

Philly goes back to Dallas where they just got hammered 24-0 and the computer likes Dallas to win again by 4.3.  Philly had been moving up, so was this loss an aberation or is this the real Philly when playing at Dallas?

The Jets play Cincy again, but this time at the Bengals.  The Bengals clearly didn't go all out so the 37-0 score isn't indicative, but that score does lead the computer to pick the Jets to pull the upset by a narrow 0.3.  If the Bengals can pull it back together, clearly that isn't the right pick.

And in the only non-repeat game, Baltimore visits New England and the computer likes the home team by 5.4.

More to come later.

End of Regular Season NFL Ratings/Ranking and Review

The regular season is now complete, and none too soon given the way some good teams packed it in the last few weeks.  Teams resting starters wreaked havoc with the computer's picks the last few weeks, but the question now is if those teams can go back to where they were?

The latest rankings are below but always found here.  And there are some changes.  New Orleans somehow manages to stay #1 even though they lost over 1.2 ratings points as they had a big enough lead, and many of the other top teams also did poorly and dropped.  New England was one of those dropping nearly a full ratings point but benefited by the Colts dropping over 2 points to stay #2, and Dallas jumps up to #3 with San Diego close behind at #4.

The question now is if the teams are rated where they should be.  Indianapolis seems low at #8, but history shows that when they've rested folks they've been unable to get it back.  Dallas and San Diego are finishing strong and getting rewarded for it.  The Jets even with their finish have jumped to #7.

The whacky end of season games did result in the computer only going 8-8 against the spread.  Here's hoping it does better in the playoffs more in line with the season record of 148-102-6.  Full prediction performance shown here.

Look for an upcoming entry on wildcard weekend picks as well as Superbowl chances for each team.  If you are interested in detailed playoff games previews, subscribe to the newsletter.  See the bowl game previews for examples of what you'll get.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	87.593	13-3	80.858	+0, -1.208
2	New England	86.684	10-6	82.069	+0, -0.908
3	Dallas	86.594	11-5	80.982	+3, +0.984
4	San Diego	85.721	13-3	79.851	+1, -0.569
5	Philadelphia	85.259	11-5	81.155	-1, -1.176
6	Green Bay	85.158	11-5	78.809	+3, +1.494
7	NY Jets	85.114	9-7	81.758	+0, +0.722
8	Indianapolis	84.925	14-2	80.356	-5, -2.149
9	Minnesota	84.673	12-4	78.875	+1, +1.178
10	Baltimore	84.332	9-7	80.390	-2, +0.207
11	Atlanta	83.990	9-7	82.562	+0, +0.502
12	Carolina	83.967	8-8	82.992	+0, +1.116
13	Houston	82.618	9-7	80.137	+1, +0.346
14	Pittsburgh	82.156	9-7	80.025	+5, +0.976
15	Cincinnati	81.782	10-6	80.467	+0, -0.482
16	Arizona	81.692	10-6	78.647	-3, -1.139
17	San Francisco	81.196	8-8	79.010	+3, +0.068
18	Miami	80.933	7-9	83.173	-1, -0.590
19	Tennessee	80.479	8-8	81.110	+2, -0.267
20	NY Giants	80.477	8-8	82.180	-2, -0.890
21	Denver	80.388	8-8	81.155	-5, -1.739
22	Buffalo	80.351	6-10	82.443	+0, +1.648
23	Chicago	78.332	7-9	79.968	+2, +0.628
24	Tampa Bay	77.777	3-13	83.521	-1, -0.344
25	Washington	77.371	4-12	80.887	+1, +0.301
26	Jacksonville	77.247	7-9	80.523	-2, -0.572
27	Cleveland	76.213	5-11	80.529	+0, +0.825
28	Kansas City	75.812	4-12	80.851	+2, +1.801
29	Oakland	74.811	5-11	81.610	-1, -0.021
30	Seattle	74.288	5-11	79.568	-1, -0.220
31	St Louis	70.037	1-15	80.137	+0, -0.625
32	Detroit	69.438	2-14	80.812	+0, -0.189

2009/2010 Week 18 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 18 (games played thru 2-Jan).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

30 games down, only 4 to go!  And while there have been upsets and surprises in the games of the last week and there have been some big movers farther down in the rankings, the top-6 remain the same.

Alabama easily remains #1 although Florida did narrow the gap after dismantling Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU stays #3 after moving to that spot last week after the early success of the Mountain West Conference in the bowls and in fact extends the lead over Texas.  Virginia Tech and Arkansas both won their bowl games and keep their rankings, although VT did so impressively and improved their rating while Arkansas eked out their win and actually lost ratings points but narrowly stayed ahead of Boise State who moved up to #7 thanks to Cincinnati and Oregon both falling out of the top-10.  Georgia Tech and Ohio State also benefited from those teams dropping.

The computer has continued the good performance against the spread and is now 19-11.  A nice summary of the picks and performance is here.  Full prediction performance for the year is here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	92.063	13-0	71.945	+0, -0.012
2	Florida	88.347	13-1	71.694	+0, +1.074
3	TCU	87.631	12-0	66.649	+0, +0.598
4	Texas	85.906	13-0	69.109	+0, -0.783
5	Virginia Tech	83.960	10-3	73.302	+0, +1.227
6	Arkansas	80.753	8-5	72.532	+0, -1.073
7	Boise St	80.607	13-0	61.621	+3, -0.126
8	Georgia Tech	80.402	11-2	72.999	+4, +0.271
9	LSU	80.353	9-4	72.886	+0, -0.677
10	Ohio State	80.308	11-2	67.802	+7, +2.257
11	Oklahoma	80.153	8-5	70.858	+0, -0.529
12	Cincinnati	80.053	12-1	68.407	-4, -1.172
13	Oregon	79.947	10-3	72.073	-6, -1.561
14	Nebraska	79.313	10-4	69.191	+2, +1.057
15	Clemson	78.804	9-5	71.330	+0, +0.077
16	Texas Tech	78.553	9-4	67.803	-2, -0.696
17	Miami FL	78.538	9-4	72.317	-4, -0.818
18	Mississippi	78.378	9-4	70.066	+0, +0.364
19	Penn State	78.181	11-2	65.999	+5, +1.504
20	Brigham Young	77.938	11-2	68.155	+2, +0.567
21	Pittsburgh	77.858	10-3	69.074	-2, +0.151
22	Stanford	76.822	8-5	70.128	-1, -0.614
23	Auburn	76.517	8-5	72.235	+0, -0.843
24	Utah	76.426	10-3	67.206	+3, +0.369
25	Tennessee	76.313	7-6	71.687	-5, -1.265
26	Connecticut	76.035	8-5	69.325	+9, +1.233
27	North Carolina	76.024	8-5	70.356	+3, +0.396
28	Iowa	76.019	10-2	68.283	+6, +0.865
29	Southern Cal	75.978	9-4	70.688	-3, -0.315
30	Georgia	75.857	8-5	73.111	+1, +0.576
31	Oregon St	75.514	8-5	69.872	-3, -0.519
32	Air Force	74.620	8-5	65.889	+13, +2.520
33	Florida St	74.606	7-6	73.780	+6, +1.659
34	Arizona	74.591	8-5	71.385	-9, -1.800
35	Oklahoma St	74.142	9-4	69.003	-6, -1.881
36	Mississippi St	74.088	5-7	73.272	+0, -0.356
37	Wisconsin	73.973	10-3	67.132	+10, +2.196
38	West Virginia	73.952	9-4	69.928	-6, -1.279
39	Kentucky	73.726	7-6	70.058	-2, -0.294
40	South Carolina	73.718	7-6	73.855	-7, -1.445
41	Rutgers	73.046	9-4	62.546	-3, -0.002
42	Navy	72.320	10-4	65.906	+12, +2.178
43	Boston College	72.135	8-5	69.459	+3, +0.298
44	California	72.114	8-5	70.437	-3, -0.395
45	South Florida	71.927	8-5	66.944	+6, +0.819
46	Wake Forest	71.853	5-7	71.331	+2, +0.307
47	Central Michigan	71.820	11-2	60.331	-3, -0.346
48	Notre Dame	71.784	6-6	69.710	+2, +0.455
49	East Carolina	71.113	9-5	67.771	+3, +0.160
50	Washington	70.815	5-7	71.288	-1, -0.515
51	Houston	70.739	10-4	64.413	-11, -1.988
52	Texas A&M	70.623	6-7	69.883	-10, -1.852
53	UCLA	70.385	7-6	70.694	+0, -0.187
54	Missouri	70.381	8-5	68.579	-11, -1.857
55	Michigan St	70.048	6-7	68.487	+0, +0.719
56	Troy	68.518	9-3	62.468	+0, -0.297
57	Minnesota	68.406	6-7	70.203	+5, +0.821
58	Kansas	68.292	5-7	69.324	-1, -0.426
59	Virginia	68.040	3-9	73.669	+2, +0.246
60	Nevada	68.005	8-5	64.240	+0, +0.169
61	Northwestern	67.930	8-5	64.487	+12, +1.523
62	Arizona St	67.837	4-8	68.313	-4, -0.568
63	Middle Tennessee St	67.817	10-3	60.557	-4, -0.206
64	Purdue	67.438	5-7	68.094	+7, +0.868
65	Iowa St	67.183	7-6	66.431	-2, -0.370
66	Fresno St	67.090	8-5	65.070	+2, +0.417
67	Kansas St	66.853	6-6	67.163	-3, -0.635
68	Central Florida	66.755	8-5	65.226	-3, -0.485
69	Duke	66.636	5-7	68.286	+3, +0.138
70	SMU	66.618	8-5	64.614	-3, -0.120
71	Southern Miss	66.537	7-6	62.703	-5, -0.349
72	North Carolina St	66.477	5-7	67.613	+2, +0.245
73	Temple	66.285	9-4	61.351	-4, -0.378
74	Baylor	65.996	4-8	70.709	-4, -0.616
75	Louisiana Tech	65.834	4-8	65.280	+2, +0.393
76	Ohio U.	65.306	9-5	62.103	+0, -0.327
77	Syracuse	65.251	4-8	69.023	+2, +0.295
78	Bowling Green	64.838	7-6	63.169	-3, -0.812
79	Marshall	64.763	7-6	66.197	-1, -0.331
80	Wyoming	64.655	7-6	68.695	+0, +0.359
81	Maryland	64.108	2-10	71.030	+1, +0.236
82	Michigan	63.954	5-7	64.803	+5, +0.928
83	Illinois	63.753	3-9	68.793	+3, +0.670
84	UNLV	63.363	5-7	67.259	+5, +0.562
85	Northern Illinois	63.358	7-6	59.706	-4, -0.863
86	Colorado	63.293	3-9	69.907	-3, -0.566
87	Alabama-Birmingham	63.256	5-7	65.736	-3, -0.365
88	Vanderbilt	63.134	2-10	71.420	-3, -0.152
89	Louisville	62.884	4-8	68.557	-1, +0.025
90	Indiana	62.645	4-8	66.518	+4, +0.867
91	Tulsa	62.378	5-7	63.243	-1, -0.316
92	Utah St	62.075	4-8	66.200	+1, +0.258
93	Idaho	62.017	8-5	63.832	+2, +0.624
94	San Diego St	61.847	4-8	66.408	+2, +0.506
95	Buffalo	61.767	5-7	61.953	-4, -0.317
96	Hawaii	61.431	6-7	63.009	+1, +0.632
97	UTEP	61.427	4-8	63.175	-5, -0.432
98	Colorado St	60.558	3-9	67.963	+0, +0.506
99	Florida Atlantic	58.603	5-7	61.940	+0, -0.196
100	Kent St	58.429	5-7	59.857	+0, -0.288
101	Western Michigan	57.935	5-7	60.320	+1, -0.064
102	Louisiana-Monroe	57.829	6-6	61.085	-1, -0.228
103	Toledo	57.023	5-7	61.920	+0, -0.239
104	Memphis	56.577	2-10	66.145	+0, -0.419
105	Army	55.628	5-7	60.596	+2, +0.142
106	Arkansas St	55.480	4-8	59.176	-1, -0.169
107	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.436	6-6	60.630	-1, -0.207
108	Ball St	54.172	2-10	61.739	+0, -0.278
109	Tulane	54.109	3-9	65.103	+0, -0.337
109	Washington St	54.109	1-11	71.987	+1, -0.262
111	New Mexico	53.463	1-11	69.115	+3, +0.339
112	Akron	53.438	3-9	61.931	-1, -0.179
113	Miami OH	52.953	1-11	66.688	-1, -0.316
114	North Texas	52.946	2-10	60.764	+1, -0.176
115	Rice	52.917	2-10	67.045	-2, -0.271
116	San Jose St	52.578	2-10	66.617	+1, +0.326
117	Florida Int'l	52.355	3-9	64.922	-1, -0.221
118	New Mexico St	50.784	3-10	63.850	+0, +0.308
119	Western Kentucky	45.956	0-12	61.825	+0, -0.139
120	Eastern Michigan	45.284	0-12	63.060	+0, -0.173

New Years Day 2010 Bowl Previews

Happy New Year and welcome to 2010.  While television has saddled us with only 5 games (same as last year but down from 6 the few years before that and more in the "olden days"), there are a few good ones.  The full previews newsletter subscribers got earlier this week will be posted around game time, but here is a short synopsis on each game.

The day kicks off with the Outback Bowl and Auburn favored big over Northwestern.  Even with the line growing to 8 or 9, the computer says it isn't enough picking Auburn by over 10.

Next up is LSU and Penn State in the Capital One Bowl where PSU was favored by 3 early but now it appears as a pick'em or even LSU by 1.  The computer liked LSU from the start, having the margin over 4 so I hope you got the early +3!

Florida State and West Virginia go at it in the Gator Bowl with WVU the 2 to 3 point pick and the computer agrees, the margin having been predicted to be right around 2.5 the whole bowl season.

In the grandaddy of them all, Oregon and Ohio State go head to head and Oregon is the Vegas pick by around 4 and early that was the computer's pick too, but with the Pac-10 underachieving a bit the pick is now down under 3.

And in the Sugar Bowl, Cincinnati tries to stay undefeated against a Florida team with a whole host of emotions in play and the Vegas line of 13 is way too high according to the computer, it pegging it at around 6.  But how will Cincinnati play with an acting head coach?

That's it for now.  Follow @computerratings on Twitter for more tidbits throughout the day.