Schmidt Computer Ratings: May 2015

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

2015 40 & over 4.5+ women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.5+ women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the four teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
1 - HBSQ-Ferrin	4.40
2 - BC-Strieb	4.39
4 - MI-Stillman	4.39
3 - AYTC-Ogborn	4.28

Given the way the seeds fell, it looks like a 1 vs 2 final should happen and be very close. But upsets happen.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 4.5+ men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.5+ men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the four teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
1 - STC-Rosen	4.52
2 - EDG-Kelly	4.48
1 - MI-Dawson	4.44
2 - CAC/SL-Tinsley	4.42

Interestingly, the top-2 teams play in one semi and the bottom-2 play in the other. Will that first match effectively decide who wins?

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck gentlemen, may the best team win!

Monday, May 25, 2015

2015 40 & over 4.0 men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.0 men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the six teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
1 - PL-McGuire	3.96
3 - PSC-Yasutake	3.93
2 - BELL-Nolan	3.90
4 - HBSQ-Harbor Squarrels-Little	3.90
6 - BELL-Trott	3.84
5 - BETC-Gutierrez	3.83

This one also roughly matches the seeding, and it one of the closer set of teams top to bottom.

The first round matches look like they may follow the seeings, but then the semis could be very close with a 3 favored over a 2.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck gentlemen, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 4.0 women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.0 women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the six teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
1 - AYTC-Wilson	4.00
3 - BETC-Haley	3.94
2 - BELL-Anders	3.93
5 - CP-Keogh	3.86
4 - TCSP-Crites	3.82
6 - MI-Jacoby	3.77

This is about the closest to matching the seeding thus far with the top-3 seeds at the top and the lower 3 seeds at the bottom. And there is some separation between the top-3 and bottom-3.

Since there are six teams, the top-2 seeds get byes so they get that advantage, and it looks like a 5 vs 4 upset could occur and then if form holds, the 2 vs 3 should be very close.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

Sunday, May 24, 2015

2015 40 & over 3.5 women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.5 women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the eight teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
4 - MI-Ko	3.48
3 - CP-Goldberg/Stanford	3.44
8 - PL-Buetow	3.43
7 - CP-Buckingham	3.40
6 - CAC/SL-Caponigro/Rockwell	3.40
1 - HBSQ-Smalley	3.38
5 - MC-Wyer	3.33
2 - EDG-Kainz	3.33

This is quite jumbled with the top two seeds rated 6th and 8th. And with a full quarter finals, any team is going to have to win three rounds.

Right off, an 8 beating a 1 seems possible as does the 7 beating the 2. The others look to follow form but the 3 vs 6 is close and happens to be the third time these two teams are meeting this year.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 3.5 men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.5 men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the eight teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
2 - CP-Ho	3.49
1 - BC-Bingham	3.48
7 - BETC-Fain	3.47
8 - STC-Ferry "Jack"	3.45
5 - AYTC-Diaz	3.45
4 - MI-Mattox	3.43
3 - GC-Moore	3.42
6 - EDG-Lin	3.32

This group of teams is quite close, only one EDG a bit behind the others, so this should be very competitive.

There are some stuff first round match-ups with 1 vs 8 being just 0.03 apart and 2 vs 7 just 0.02 apart. Two good teams will be out after the first round. The others are close too, just the lower 4 rated teams.

Good luck men, may the best team win!

Friday, May 22, 2015

2015 40 & over 3.0 men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.0 men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the four teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
1- MC-Youngblut	3.05
2 - STC-Left Shark-Owen	3.00
1 - CP-Graves	2.98
2 - AYTC-Welland	2.79

Similar to the women's 3.0 preview, there is one team that looks out of place. Welland finished in a 3-way tie for second in their sub-flight and won the tie-breaker so moved on. Note that they have several self-rated players that don't have a full dynamic rating yet so were not included in the average and that likely accounts for them being lower.

This is a straight semis and final draw and MC and CP are the higher seeds as the sub-flight winners, but by these averages STC has an ever so slight edge over CP in their match.

Good luck men, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 3.0 women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31. This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.0 women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players. This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the six teams headed to playoffs. The playoff seed is before the team name.

Team	Average
6 - ETC-Team Fireball-Thornsberry	3.10
1 - CAC/SL-Peters	3.08
3 - BETC-Mansfield	3.02
5 - AYTC-Slice II-Isidro	2.94
2 - RBW-Lee	2.91
4 - AYTC-Team Golden	2.72

The first thing that jumps out is that the order doesn't match the seedings. This isn't entirely surprising as the teams played in three different sub-flights so didn't all play each other.

The second thing that jumps out is the 2.72 average for Team Golden compared to the others. How did they make playoffs? If you look at their record, they went 7-1 and every win was 3-2 and the one loss was 2-3. So they are perhaps not that deep and that affects the average rating of their top-8, but they seem to find a way to win three courts most matches. And yes, there were a bunch of teams with higher top-8 averages that didn't make it to playoffs.

So based on this, ETC and CAC/SL should be the favorites right? Well, with six teams, the top-2 seeds have byes, so ETC will have an extra match to play. So you might say CAC/SL is the favorite as they have nearly the highest top-8 average and get the first round bye so only have to win two matches.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story which we saw with Team Golden, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

Monday, May 18, 2015

2015 PNW Northwest Washington (Seattle) 40+ Local Playoff Previews Coming

I live and play in the Seattle area which in the USTA's organization is the Northwest Washington area/district of the Pacific Northwest section. Since this is a single area district, our local playoffs between sub-flights at each level are effectively our Districts to determine who goes to Sectionals.

For the 40+ division, those playoffs are coming up in less than two weeks May 29 thru June 1. Unfortunately my team fell just short of making playoffs, missing by one on a courts won/lost tie-breaker, but as a result I may spend a little time doing some previews of the playoffs to see how well my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings do at predicting the matches and winning teams.

I may not preview every gender and level, so leave a comment below, like and comment on Facebook, or send me a tweet to let me know what gender and level you'd like to see previewed.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

5/16 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 40 & over division?

This is the second update to my Nationals Previews taking a look at the strongest women's teams by level in the 40 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

I am continuing with using the top-8 average which I did last time.

Here are the new lists:

Women's 3.0

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - PIEDMONT (GSO/HP)	3.20
TEXAS / SAN ANTONIO	3.20
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	3.19
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	3.18
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY	3.17

Women's 3.5

Location	Average
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.65
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.62
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	3.62
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / SOUTH MIAMI/DADE	3.60
SOUTHERN / MISSISSIPPI / MS - JACKSON	3.58

Women's 4.0

Location	Average
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	4.11
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.08
SOUTHERN / LOUISIANA / LA - NEW ORLEANS	4.06
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.05
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / BEACH CITIES	4.05

Women's 4.5+

Location	Average
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	4.56
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.56
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	4.54
SOUTHERN / TENNESSEE / TN - MEMPHIS	4.53
SO. CALIFORNIA / SAN DIEGO	4.53

5/16 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 40 & over division?

This is the second update to my Nationals Previews taking a look at the strongest men's teams by level in the 40 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

I am continuing with using the top-8 average which I did last time.

Here are the new lists:

Men 3.0

Location	Average
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY	3.14
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	3.13
SOUTHERN / SOUTH CAROLINA / SC - COLUMBIA-CTL	3.11
SOUTHERN / LOUISIANA / LA - BATON ROUGE	3.09
SOUTHERN / SOUTH CAROLINA / SC - HILTON HEAD-HH	3.08

Men 3.5

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - CAPITAL AREA (Ral)	3.70
SOUTHERN / SOUTH CAROLINA / SC - BEAUFORT COUNTY- CCTA	3.63
TEXAS / AUSTIN	3.63
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 2015	3.62
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - MONTGOMERY - 2015	3.61

Men 4.0

Location	Average
TEXAS / AUSTIN	4.15
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - PIEDMONT (GSO/HP)	4.13
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.12
SOUTHERN / SOUTH CAROLINA / SC - HILTON HEAD-HH	4.11
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - SAVANNAH - SATA - 2015	4.10

Men 4.5+

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.66
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - UP	4.65
FLORIDA / REGION_3 / PINELLAS	4.65
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.64
HAWAII / OAHU	4.63

5/16 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 18 & over division?

This is the second update to my Nationals Previews taking a look at the strongest women's teams by level in the 18 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

I am continuing with using the top-8 average which I did last time.

Here are the new lists:

Women 2.5

Location	Average
TEXAS / SAN ANTONIO	2.84
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	2.75
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	2.69
SOUTHERN / TENNESSEE / TN - MEMPHIS	2.67
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	2.66

Women 3.0

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LEXINGTON	3.30
TEXAS / SAN ANTONIO	3.21
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LEXINGTON	3.17
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - CHEROKEE - CTA - 2015	3.17
TEXAS / AUSTIN	3.15

Women 3.5

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	3.67
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - PIEDMONT (GSO/HP)	3.67
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	3.66
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - SF - 2	3.65
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - WESTERN NC (Mtn)	3.64

Women 4.0

Location	Average
FLORIDA / REGION_5	4.08
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2015	4.07
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	4.07
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	4.07
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 2015	4.06

Women 4.5

Location	Average
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 2015	4.54
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	4.53
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	4.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.50
MISSOURI VALLEY / HEART OF AMERICA	4.50

Women 5.0

Location	Average
MID ATLANTIC / WASHINGTON D.C.	4.94
FLORIDA / REGION_2 / DUVAL	4.89
NO. CALIFORNIA / MA	4.88
PACIFIC NW / NORTHERN OREGON	4.82
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA	4.81

5/16 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 18 & over division?

This is the second update to my Nationals Previews taking a look at the strongest men's teams by level in the 18 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

I am continuing with using the top-8 average which I did last time.

Here are the new lists.

Men 2.5

Location	Average
CARIBBEAN / PUERTO RICO	2.55
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	2.51
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	2.48
SOUTHERN / LOUISIANA / LA - MANDEVILLE/COVINGTON	2.41
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2015	2.40

Men 3.0

Location	Average
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	3.20
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2015	3.14
MIDWEST / OHIO VALLEY / DAYTON	3.13
SOUTHERN / SOUTH CAROLINA / SC - COLUMBIA-CTL	3.12
SOUTHERN / SOUTH CAROLINA / SC - LOW COUNTRY-LCTA	3.12

Men 3.5

Location	Average
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - MP	3.72
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - CHEROKEE - CTA - 2015	3.70
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	3.66
SOUTHERN / MISSISSIPPI / MS - JACKSON	3.65
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - CAPITAL AREA (Ral)	3.64

Men 4.0

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.14
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - EB	4.13
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.12
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - METRO (Chl)	4.11
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - PIEDMONT (GSO/HP)	4.11

Men 4.5

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - CENTRAL CAROLINA (Cary)	4.60
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.58
FLORIDA / REGION_3 / HILLSBOROUGH	4.58
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.56
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	4.56

Men 5.0

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2015	5.01
NO. CALIFORNIA / SF	5.01
NO. CALIFORNIA / SB	5.00
NO. CALIFORNIA / SA	4.99
NO. CALIFORNIA / LP	4.99

Saturday, May 2, 2015

5/2 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 40 & over division?

This is an update to the post from about a month ago taking a look at the strongest teams by level in the 40 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

In the earlier rendition, I looked at the average rating for the entire roster of a team. As noted before, this has flaws as averages can be pulled down by large rosters that carry lower rated players and who plays in a match is really what matters. This time, I'm now looking at the average of the top-8 players as this may be more indicative of who would play in a meaningful match and thus how strong that team is.

A side-effect of this is that the averages have gone up. Pretty much across the board a top team is going to have a top-8 average that is over the top of their level. This is just the way it is for strong teams as they've recruited the strongest players and put in the effort to improve and so their ratings go up.

Here are the new lists.

Women 3.0
Southwest / Northern New Mexico - 3.19
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.18
Texas / San Antonio - 3.18
Missouri Valley / Oklahoma City - 3.17
Southern / North Carolina / Piedmont - 3.15

Women 3.5
Texas / Dallas - 3.65

Texas / Dallas - 3.62

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.62
Florida / Region 8 / South Miami - 3.60
Southwest / Southern Arizona - 3.60

Women 4.0
Florida / Region 8 / Broward - 4.11
Texas / Dallas - 4.08
New England / Eastern Connecticut - 4.07
Southern / Louisiana / New Orleans - 4.06
Southwest / Southern Arizona - 4.06

Women 4.5+
Mid-Atlantic / Virginia / NOVA - 4.56
Northern California / SA - 4.51
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.50

Hawaii / Oahu - 4.49

Northern California / UP - 4.48

5/2 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 40 & over division?

This is an update to the post from about a month ago taking a look at the strongest teams by level in the 40 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

In the earlier rendition, I looked at the average rating for the entire roster of a team. As noted before, this has flaws as averages can be pulled down by large rosters that carry lower rated players and who plays in a match is really what matters. This time, I'm now looking at the average of the top-8 players as this may be more indicative of who would play in a meaningful match and thus how strong that team is.

A side-effect of this is that the averages have gone up. Pretty much across the board a top team is going to have a top-8 average that is over the top of their level. This is just the way it is for strong teams as they've recruited the strongest players and put in the effort to improve and so their ratings go up.

Here are the new lists.

Men 3.0
Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 3.14
Southern / South Carolina / Columbia - 3.11
Southern / Louisiana / Baton Rouge - 3.10

Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 3.09

Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.09

Men 3.5
Southern / South Carolina / Beaufort - 3.68
Texas / Austin - 3.62

Southern / Alabama / Huntsville - 3.62

Southern / Alabama / Montgomery - 3.61

Northern California / MP - 3.61

Men 4.0
Southern / North Carolina / Piedmont - 4.14
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.13

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.12

Northern / Twin Cities - 4.10

Southern / Georgia / Savannah - 4.10

Men 4.5+
Northern California / UP - 4.67
Florida / Region 3 / Pinellas - 4.65
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.65
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.64
Hawaii / Oahu - 4.63

Update: Corrected 4.5+ list 5/3

5/2 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 18 & over division?

This is an update to the post from about a month ago taking a look at the strongest teams by level in the 18 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

In the earlier rendition, I looked at the average rating for the entire roster of a team. As noted before, this has flaws as averages can be pulled down by large rosters that carry lower rated players and who plays in a match is really what matters. This time, I'm now looking at the average of the top-8 (top-5 for 2.5 and 5.0+) players as this may be more indicative of who would play in a meaningful match and thus how strong that team is.

A side-effect of this is that the averages have gone up. Pretty much across the board a top team is going to have a top-8 average that is over the top of their level. This is just the way it is for strong teams as they've recruited the strongest players and put in the effort to improve and so their ratings go up.

Here are the new lists.

Women 2.5
Southern / Tennessee / Memphis - 2.76
Southern / Tennessee / Memphis - 2.76

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 2.74

Southern / Georgia / EVTA - 2.74

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 2.74

Women 3.0
Southern / Kentucky / Lexington - 3.30
Southern / Kentucky / Lexington - 3.17
Southern / Georgia / Cherokee - 3.17

Southern / Kentucky / Louisville - 3.15

Southern / Georgia / Southern Crescent - 3.15

Women 3.5
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.69

Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.68

Southern / Tennessee / Knoxville - 3.65

Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.63

Southern / North Carolina / Piedmont - 3.63

Women 4.0

Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 4.08
Northern California / UP - 4.08
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 4.08
Southern / Georgia / Columbus - 4.07
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 4.06

Women 4.5
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.54

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.53

New England / Southern Connecticut - 4.53

Florida / Region 8 / Broward - 4.52

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.51

Women 5.0+
Mid Atlantic / Washington D.C. - 4.99
Southern / North Carolina / Raleigh - 4.88
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.86
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.80
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.78

5/2 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 18 & over division?

This is an update to the post from about a month ago taking a look at the strongest teams by level in the 18 & over division of USTA League tennis. Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

In the earlier rendition, I looked at the average rating for the entire roster of a team. As noted before, this has flaws as averages can be pulled down by large rosters that carry lower rated players and who plays in a match is really what matters. This time, I'm now looking at the average of the top-8 (top-5 for 2.5 and 5.0+) players as this may be more indicative of who would play in a meaningful match and thus how strong that team is.

A side-effect of this is that the averages have gone up. Pretty much across the board a top team is going to have a top-8 average that is over the top of their level. This is just the way it is for strong teams as they've recruited the strongest players and put in the effort to improve and so their ratings go up.

Here are the new lists.

Men 2.5
Caribbean / Puerto Rico - 2.62
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.54
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.53
Southern / Georgia / Columbus - 2.53
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.51

Men 3.0
Southern / Georgia / Columbus - 3.14
Midwest / Ohio / Dayton - 3.13
Southern / South Carolina / Columbia - 3.12
Southern / South Carolina / Low Country - 3.12
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.12

Men 3.5
Southern / Georgia / Cherokee - 3.70
Northern California / SB - 3.66
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.63
Northern California / MP - 3.63
Southern / North Carolina / Raleigh - 3.63

Men 4.0
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.14
Southern / Georgia / COTA - 4.12
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.11
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.11
Texas / Dallas - 4.11

Men 4.5
Florida / Region 3 / Hillsborough - 4.58
Texas / Dallas - 4.57
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.57
Northern California / DS - 4.56
Southern / North Carolina / Cary - 4.56

Men 5.0+
Northern California / LP - 5.12
Northern California / SF - 5.09
Northern California / SA - 5.09
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 5.06
Northern California / LP - 5.06