Saturday, April 4, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 40 & over division?

Yes, it is only April, but I'm previewing 2015 Nationals already.

This is the second in a series of posts that use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the women's 40 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Women 3.0

Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.05
Southern / Louisiana / Mandeville - 2.98
New England / So. CT / E CT - 2.97
Southern / North Carolina / Piedmont - 2.96
Northern Cal / DN - 2.95

Pretty close other than Alabama, and Southern represents well.

Women 3.5

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.48
Southern / Tennessee / Knoxville - 3.45
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.45
Texas / Dallas - 3.45
Texas / Dallas - 3.44

Southern and Texas come on down!

Women 4.0

Southern / South Carolina / Hilton Head - 3.95
Southern Cal / Beach Cities - 3.95
Southern / South Carolina - Greenville - 3.94
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.94
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 3.93

Do women's 4.0 play anywhere other than Southern?

Women 4.5+

Florida / Region 4 / Orange - 4.51
Texas / Dallas - 4.42
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 4.42
Southern / Tennessee / Memphis - 4.42
Northern Cal / SA - 4.41

What do you think?