Friday, April 3, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 40 & over division?

I've used my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to handicap and do previews for flights and sub-flights, but since it is now April, many sections have been playing for awhile or at least have their teams formed, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

To start, I'll be looking at the men's 40 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Men 3.0

Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 3.14
Florida / Region 1 / Leon - 3.04
Southern / South Carolina / Hilton Head - 3.01
Southern / Louisiana / Baton Rouge - 2.98
Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 2.98

Yes, there are 3.0 teams with average ratings well over 3.0.  And it looks like making it out of the SoCal and Southern sections may be tough and the San Gabriel Valley team could be the big favorite.

Men 3.5

Southern / South Carolina / Beaufort - 3.48
Southern / Kentucky / Louisville - 3.48
Texas / Austin - 3.47
Northern Cal / South Bay - 3.47
Southern / Alabama / Anniston - 3.46

This looks a lot tighter, but Southern is well represented again.  But no teams are already above 3.5.

Men 4.0

Florida / Region 3 / Pinellas - 4.06
Southern / Georgia / Savannah - 4.01
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.01
Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 4.01
Southern / North Carolina / Lake Norman - 4.01

Also very tight, the top-5 all above 4.0, and Southern represented well again.

Men 4.5+

Florida / Region 4 / Orange - 4.52
Northern Cal / East Bay - 4.50
Northern Cal / Upper Peninsula - 4.49
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.48
Northern Cal / Lower Peninsula - 4.48

Also close, Northern Cal making its presence known.

What do you think?  I'll do women and the 18 & over division soon.