Sunday, April 5, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 18 & over division?

This is the next in the series of "It's only April but let's handicap Nationals already!" posts and previews.

To do this handicapping, I use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the women's 18 & over division and at each level, and identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Women 2.5

Northern California / Lower Peninsula - 2.79
Texas / Fort Worth - 2.77
Texas / San Antonio - 2.75
Northern California / Lower Peninsula - 2.68
Southern / Georgia / EVTA - 2.67

Some high rated "2.5" teams!  Seriously, 2.5 flights typically have a lot of self-rated players so these numbers can be pretty rough and not complete depending on where a team is in their season.

Women 3.0

Southern / Kentucky / Lexington - 3.15
Midwest / Ohio / Dayton - 3.04
Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 3.01
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.01
Midwest / Western Michigan - 3.00

There are some strong "3.0" teams!

Women 3.5

Southern / Georgia / North Georgia - 3.50
Southern / Tennessee / Knoxville - 3.47
Southern / Georgia / EVTA - 3.46
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.45
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.45

More from the south.

Women 4.0

Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 3.97
Southern / Georgia / Columbus - 3.93
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.92
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.92
Northern / Twin Cities - 3.91

Tough to make it out of Sarasota!

Women 4.5

Florida / Region 8 / Broward - 4.39
Southern / Tennessee / Memphis - 4.34
Caribbean / Puerto Rico - 4.34
Southern / Alabama / Mobile - 4.33
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.33

Closely grouped, and some variety, although mostly warm weather locales.

Women 5.0+

Southern / South Carolina / Hilton Head - 4.99
Florida / Region 2 / Duval - 4.85
Mid Atlantic / Washington D.C. - 4.78
Southern / North Carolina / Raleigh - 4.77
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.76

Finally, some variety, although Hilton Head looks like the cream of the crop although they have small perhaps incomplete roster at this point.

What do you think?