Saturday, May 2, 2015

5/2 Update - Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 40 & over division?

This is an update to the post from about a month ago taking a look at the strongest teams by level in the 40 & over division of USTA League tennis.  Strength of a team is based on taking an average of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings I calculate for each team.

In the earlier rendition, I looked at the average rating for the entire roster of a team.  As noted before, this has flaws as averages can be pulled down by large rosters that carry lower rated players and who plays in a match is really what matters.  This time, I'm now looking at the average of the top-8 players as this may be more indicative of who would play in a meaningful match and thus how strong that team is.

A side-effect of this is that the averages have gone up.  Pretty much across the board a top team is going to have a top-8 average that is over the top of their level.  This is just the way it is for strong teams as they've recruited the strongest players and put in the effort to improve and so their ratings go up.

Here are the new lists.

Men 3.0
Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 3.14
Southern / South Carolina / Columbia - 3.11
Southern / Louisiana / Baton Rouge - 3.10
Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 3.09
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.09

Men 3.5
Southern / South Carolina / Beaufort - 3.68
Texas / Austin - 3.62
Southern / Alabama / Huntsville - 3.62
Southern / Alabama / Montgomery - 3.61
Northern California / MP - 3.61

Men 4.0
Southern / North Carolina / Piedmont - 4.14
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.13
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.12
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.10
Southern / Georgia / Savannah - 4.10

Men 4.5+
Northern California / UP - 4.67
Florida / Region 3 / Pinellas - 4.65
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.65
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.64
Hawaii / Oahu - 4.63

Update: Corrected 4.5+ list 5/3