Sunday, April 5, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 18 & over division?

This is the next in the series of "It's only April but let's handicap Nationals already!" posts and previews.

To do this handicapping, I use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the men's 18 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Men 2.5

Caribbean / Puerto Rico - 2.52
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.52
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.48
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.42
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.41

Yes folks, Birmingham seems to be a hot-bed for 2.5 tennis!  Seriously, 2.5 flights typically have a lot of self-rated players so these numbers can be pretty rough and not complete depending on where a team is in their season.

Men 3.0

Southern / South Carolina / Lexington - 3.01
Southwest / El Paso - 3.01
Southern / Alabama / Huntsville - 2.99
Pacific Northwest / Seattle - 2.97
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 2.97

Southern rules again.

Men 3.5

Northern California / MP - 3.51
Southern / North Carolina / Raleigh - 3.51
Southern / Georgia / COTA - 3.47
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.46
Florida / Region 7 / Collier - 3.46

There is a theme here with Southern showing up.

Men 4.0

Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 4.04
Southern / North Carolina / Lake Norman - 4.00
Southwest / Northern New Mexico - 4.00
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.99
Texas / Austin - 3.97

The theme continues.

Men 4.5

Florida / Region 3 / Hillsborough - 4.43
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.43
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.43
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 4.43
Texas / Austin - 4.42

No comment needed.

Men 5.0+

Northern California / SA - 5.00
Northern California / MA - 4.93
Northern California / LP - 4.92
Northern California / MP - 4.90
Northern California / SF - 4.89

Should we just give the title to NorCal now?

What do you think?