Saturday, July 12, 2014

More Interesting USTA League Stats - Strength of players by NTRP level and area - Mid Atlantic 3.5s

I wrote yesterday about the average rating by area in the Mid-Atlantic section for NTRP 4.0 level players.  Today, I add the chart for NTRP 3.5 level players.


We see again that some areas have players that are significantly stronger/weaker than others.  But are they the same as for the 4.0s?  For reference here is that chart again.


They aren't necessarily the same.  Charlottesville for example has among the strongest 4.0s but is weaker for 3.5s.  And going the other way, Forty West had the lowest average of 4.0s but is mid-pack for 3.5s.

Another interesting observation I did not make yesterday is that you'd expect the "average" 4.0 to be at 3.75, but the majority of the area did not have averages around that, several being well below.  This is likely just a reflection of the median player in USTA being closer to a 3.5, so you are going to find more weak 4.0s than strong 4.0s and that will skew the average down from the mid-point.  This is confirmed by the median 3.5 being 3.25 and the averages being a whole lot closer to being right around that number.

Note also that these averages don't mean players that live in the respective areas are stronger/weaker, rather it is just that players that play in those areas.  Many players in Mid-Atlantic play in multiple areas and so a lot show up in multiple of the averages.  So this rather may just be an indication of which areas draw the stronger players to play.  It doesn't mean there can't be strong teams in the other areas, just that there aren't as many higher rated players.

So if you are trying to make Districts or Sectionals, you may want to field a team in one of the areas with the lower average as the road to get there may be easier.

More to come.