Sunday, December 30, 2012

Early 2012/13 NFL Playoffs Superbowl Odds

We now know who will be in the playoffs and who will play who.  With that, it is time to run through the scenarios of how the playoffs could play out, and what that means to the chances of each team making it to and winning the Superbowl.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
Denver0.3780.205
New England0.3230.174
San Francisco0.2920.148
Atlanta0.2920.138
Seattle0.1280.066
Green Bay0.1300.064
Houston0.1020.048
Baltimore0.0910.041
Minnesota0.0770.035
Washington0.0800.035
Cincinnati0.0600.027
Indianapolis0.0460.019

While Denver is not the highest rated team by my computer, they do have home field advantage through the playoffs and thus have the edge over the Patriots to get to the Superbowl as well as win it.  The Patriots are the 2nd pick though and not that far behind.

In the NFC, the 49ers and Falcons are nearly equals to both get to and win the Superbowl, the edge going to the 49ers because of Atlanta's slide the past few weeks of the season.  The highest rated team in the NFC is Seattle and because they have to play an extra round as compared with the 1st four mentioned, and thus the slot in at the 5th pick.

The chances fall out after that somewhat as expected with the Colts have the worst chance at just under 5% of making it to the Superbowl and less than 2% of winning.