How did the Bears and Giants rank in the top-10 but not make the playoffs?

We all know that a record doesn't tell you everything about a team, and looking at my week 17 ratings and rankings and comparing to who made the playoffs, this is evident on several levels.

First, Indianapolis is ranked #21 but is one of the 12 teams making the playoffs.  This is due to  2 things, a very weak schedule based in part on having the worst record last year, and winning a lot of close games.  Their performance chart is telling.  You can see how their wins are mostly just above their rating while several of their losses are well below their rating.



But what about the teams that were "left out"?

Chicago is ranked #7 by my computer but lost the wildcard tie-breaker to Minnesota on division record.  To be fair, my computer has Minnesota #8 just over 0.1 points behind, and Chicago is not ahead of any other non-division winner in the NFC.  Their chart shows a clear decline in the second  half of their year where they went 5-8, although all those losses were to playoff teams.  Their rating is fairly high because of this tough schedule (#7) with only 3 playoff teams having a tougher schedule.



The Giants are ranked #10 by my computer but were a game out of the tie-breaker with Chicago and Minnesota.  Had they won one more game, they would have had the conference record advantage over both of them and been in the playoffs.  But losing 3 of their last 5 hurt them, although they too were to playoff teams.  And losing early in the year to 3 teams that didn't make the playoffs didn't help.

Early 2012/13 NFL Playoffs Superbowl Odds

We now know who will be in the playoffs and who will play who.  With that, it is time to run through the scenarios of how the playoffs could play out, and what that means to the chances of each team making it to and winning the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Denver	0.378	0.205
New England	0.323	0.174
San Francisco	0.292	0.148
Atlanta	0.292	0.138
Seattle	0.128	0.066
Green Bay	0.130	0.064
Houston	0.102	0.048
Baltimore	0.091	0.041
Minnesota	0.077	0.035
Washington	0.080	0.035
Cincinnati	0.060	0.027
Indianapolis	0.046	0.019

While Denver is not the highest rated team by my computer, they do have home field advantage through the playoffs and thus have the edge over the Patriots to get to the Superbowl as well as win it.  The Patriots are the 2nd pick though and not that far behind.

In the NFC, the 49ers and Falcons are nearly equals to both get to and win the Superbowl, the edge going to the 49ers because of Atlanta's slide the past few weeks of the season.  The highest rated team in the NFC is Seattle and because they have to play an extra round as compared with the 1st four mentioned, and thus the slot in at the 5th pick.

The chances fall out after that somewhat as expected with the Colts have the worst chance at just under 5% of making it to the Superbowl and less than 2% of winning.

NFL Playoff Team Performance Charts

With the completion of the NFL regular season, it is interesting to take a look at the performance charts for the playoff teams to see how they are entering the post-season.  Here they are with a few comments.



The Patriot's rating was remarkably consistent, even if they had a few up and down games.



Denver started the season a bit lower, and started 2-3, but then went on  a streak and have been in the top-4 the last 8 weeks.



Seattle benefited from a win over Green Bay early, but finished the season very strong and moving up to #3.



The 49ers have had the lowest lows of any of the top-4 teams, but also some pretty high highs.



The Packers have been a bit up and down, but finished pretty strong until the loss to the Vikings who they get to play again.



Atlanta was strong early, but wasn't as good late, some questions entering the post-season.



Minnesota was the last team in, but finished strong in their last 4 to get there.



Houston is a bit like Atlanta, not finishing strong at all.



Washington had a worse start than Denver, 3-6, but have had a similar strong finish.



Baltimore has a similar profile to Houston and somewhat Atlanta, not finishing that strong.



Cincinnati also finished strong, just the lone loss to Dallas, to get into the playoffs.



The Colts had a very weak schedule and made the most of it, being #21 in the league but being amongst the 12 teams making the playoffs.  A lot of close wins is what didn't impress the computer.

NFL Week 17 Ratings and Rankings - New England finished #1

The ratings after week 17 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England moves back ahead of Denver based primarily on Denver having to play the worst team in the league while the Patriots got to play now 7-9 Miami.  They are only a half point apart so it really is very close.

Behind them, Seattle stays ahead of San Francisco, despite San Francisco beating them out for the NFC West.  Atlanta falls more with their loss than Green Bay does leaving the Packers at #5 and the Falcons at #6.

It will be no solace to Chicago that they are #7 and ahead of Minnesota at #8 because they lost out on tie-breakers to them.  Houston's losing streak dropped them all the way to #9.

The Giants are another team that missed the playoffs but is ranked ahead of teams that made it.  The worst team in the playoffs?  The Colts way down at #21.

We are now on to the playoffs.  Look for more posts shortly.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.523	12-4	80.320	+1, +0.357
2	Denver	88.081	13-3	79.177	-1, -0.169
3	Seattle	87.650	11-5	81.924	+0, -0.056
4	San Francisco	87.099	11-4-1	82.150	+0, +0.050
5	Green Bay	85.896	11-5	81.290	+1, -0.274
6	Atlanta	84.958	13-3	79.527	-1, -1.216
7	Chicago	84.060	10-6	81.363	+1, -0.064
8	Minnesota	83.946	10-6	81.484	+1, +0.269
9	Houston	83.794	12-4	79.902	-2, -1.170
10	NY Giants	83.602	9-7	80.989	+0, +0.179
11	Washington	83.021	10-6	80.597	+1, +0.274
12	Baltimore	82.519	10-6	80.111	-1, -0.376
13	Cincinnati	82.382	10-6	78.799	+0, +0.214
14	St Louis	81.614	7-8-1	82.785	+0, +0.136
15	Carolina	81.549	7-9	80.928	+1, +0.627
16	New Orleans	80.560	7-9	81.131	-1, -0.667
17	Tampa Bay	80.338	7-9	80.695	+3, +0.990
18	Pittsburgh	80.311	8-8	79.178	+1, +0.382
19	Dallas	80.100	8-8	81.347	-2, -0.382
20	Miami	79.731	7-9	80.485	-2, -0.357
21	Indianapolis	79.525	11-5	78.955	+2, +1.010
22	San Diego	78.938	7-9	79.111	-1, -0.333
23	Arizona	78.491	5-11	82.889	-1, -0.221
24	Buffalo	77.661	6-10	80.197	+2, +0.931
25	Detroit	77.635	4-12	81.987	+0, -0.145
26	NY Jets	77.269	6-10	81.018	-2, -0.952
27	Cleveland	76.327	5-11	79.939	+0, -0.365
28	Tennessee	75.700	6-10	80.204	+0, +0.503
29	Philadelphia	73.826	4-12	81.157	+0, -0.405
30	Oakland	73.267	4-12	79.700	+0, +0.301
31	Jacksonville	71.327	2-14	80.526	+0, -0.634
32	Kansas City	70.582	2-14	80.419	+0, +0.208

NFL Week 16 Ratings and Rankings - Denver the new #1

The ratings after week 16 are now posted and listed below as well.

Denver moves to #1 ahead of New England, and Seattle moves to #3 ahead of the 49ers.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Denver	88.250	12-3	80.022	+2, +0.282
2	New England	88.166	11-4	80.648	-1, -0.662
3	Seattle	87.706	10-5	82.157	+2, +1.147
4	San Francisco	87.049	10-4-1	82.646	-2, -1.201
5	Atlanta	86.174	13-2	79.659	+1, +0.303
6	Green Bay	86.170	11-4	80.981	+1, +0.384
7	Houston	84.964	12-3	79.729	-3, -1.683
8	Chicago	84.124	9-6	81.431	+1, +0.928
9	Minnesota	83.677	9-6	81.377	+2, +1.624
10	NY Giants	83.423	8-7	81.751	-2, -1.162
11	Baltimore	82.895	10-5	79.819	+1, +0.951
12	Washington	82.747	9-6	80.887	-2, +0.096
13	Cincinnati	82.168	9-6	78.862	+0, +0.378
14	St Louis	81.478	7-7-1	82.219	+3, +0.933
15	New Orleans	81.227	7-8	81.329	+0, +0.300
16	Carolina	80.922	6-9	80.856	+0, +0.046
17	Dallas	80.482	8-7	81.083	-3, -0.625
18	Miami	80.088	7-8	79.719	+2, +0.214
19	Pittsburgh	79.929	7-8	79.665	-1, -0.412
20	Tampa Bay	79.348	6-9	80.291	-1, -0.900
21	San Diego	79.271	6-9	79.733	+3, +1.013
22	Arizona	78.712	5-10	82.518	+0, -0.615
23	Indianapolis	78.515	10-5	78.954	+0, -0.055
24	NY Jets	78.221	6-9	81.001	-3, -1.221
25	Detroit	77.780	4-11	82.187	+0, -0.213
26	Buffalo	76.730	5-10	80.692	+0, -0.766
27	Cleveland	76.692	5-10	79.603	+0, -0.118
28	Tennessee	75.197	5-10	81.072	+0, -0.513
29	Philadelphia	74.231	4-11	80.849	+0, -0.304
30	Oakland	72.966	4-11	79.662	+0, +0.110
31	Jacksonville	71.961	2-13	80.616	+0, +0.200
32	Kansas City	70.374	2-13	79.622	+0, -0.003

NFC East Playoff Scenarios as of 12/13 2:40pm Pacific

After the early games today, we have a situation where 6 teams could be tied at 9-7 in the NFC, one winning the NFC East and the other 5 vying for the 2 wildcard spots.

First, let's take a look who would win the NFC East.  In this scenario, Dallas beats Washington and the Giants go 1-1 in their last 2 games.  Dallas would win the division on the common opponent tie-breaker over Washington with the Giants having fallen by the wayside on the division record tie-breaker.

That would leave Washington, the Giants, Minnesota, Chicago, and Seattle as the other teams.  Seattle would have to go 0-2, Chicago 1-1, and Minnesota 1-1.

Washington would get the first wildcard, first by beating the Giants on division record, then beating the other 3 teams on conference record.

Then the wildcard tie-breakers are done again, this time with the Giants included again and now the Giants beat the other teams on conference record.

There are certainly many other scenarios, but this one was pretty interesting so thought I'd write it up.  More perhaps later.

What if the NFL used the BCS?

Thankfully the NFL doesn't and we have normal playoffs, but Alex at the Bleacher Report went through the effort the use one human poll, my computer ratings, and three other computers to come up with "BCS" standings for the NFL.  Take a look here.

NFL Week 15 Projected Records - Atlanta and Houston top the conferences

The projected records after week 15 are now posted and listed below as well.

The top 4 teams are all projected to win out, Denver convincingly, and if this happens, New England will be left out of the first round byes.

Baltimore is expected to win the AFC North, and Indianapolis and now Cincinnati instead of Pittsburgh the wildcards.

The NFC has gotten interesting with the NFC East up for grabs and now a race for the 2 wildcard spots.  Washington is given the edge being projected to finish 10-6 ahead of the Giants and Cowboys both at 9-7.  But those two teams still have a shot at the wildcard given Chicago's fall as they are also projected at 9-7 with Minnesota being there too.  It could come down to which teams are at that record and thus which tie-breakers come into play, but the Giants then Vikings have the better conference record of the group.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Atlanta	14-2	51.1	0.0	40.9
Houston	14-2	48.9	0.0	42.3
Denver	13-3	92.8	0.0	7.1
New England	12-4	64.7	0.0	31.6
San Francisco	11-4-1	51.6	35.5	12.9
Green Bay	11-5	48.3	43.5	8.2
Indianapolis	10-6	55.8	22.7	21.5
Baltimore	10-6	50.2	21.1	28.7
Washington	10-6	48.8	0.0	42.1
Seattle	10-6	48.6	38.4	13.0
Dallas	9-7	54.2	18.7	27.1
Cincinnati	9-7	50.9	26.1	23.0
NY Giants	9-7	50.6	40.5	8.9
Chicago	9-7	49.7	29.9	20.4
Minnesota	9-7	48.8	12.5	38.7
Pittsburgh	8-8	47.1	42.5	10.3
St Louis	7-8-1	46.6	11.7	41.8
Miami	7-9	58.2	14.4	27.4
Tampa Bay	7-9	53.8	14.6	31.6
New Orleans	7-9	51.9	22.9	25.2
NY Jets	7-9	50.6	29.0	20.4
Tennessee	6-10	62.0	11.8	26.3
San Diego	6-10	55.9	29.2	14.9
Carolina	6-10	55.3	33.5	11.3
Buffalo	6-10	50.8	18.6	30.6
Arizona	6-10	48.9	11.6	39.5
Cleveland	5-11	73.0	25.9	0.0
Detroit	5-11	47.3	13.5	39.2
Oakland	4-12	61.1	34.2	0.0
Philadelphia	4-12	58.1	36.7	0.0
Kansas City	2-14	66.1	33.2	0.0
Jacksonville	2-14	56.8	37.9	0.0

NFL Week 15 Ratings and Rankings - New England hangs on to #1

The ratings after week 15 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England hangs on to #1 despite losing to San Francisco at home, but it is a lot closer now than it was last week.  Denver and Houston swap spots and Atlanta and the Giants swap as well.

Farther back, Minnesota makes a big move up to #11 trying to stay in the playoff hunt and New Orleans also moves up but alas probably too late.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.828	10-4	81.376	+0, -1.321
2	San Francisco	88.250	10-3-1	81.940	+0, +1.169
3	Denver	87.968	11-3	80.434	+1, +1.024
4	Houston	86.647	12-2	79.717	-1, -0.354
5	Seattle	86.559	9-5	82.150	+0, +0.784
6	Atlanta	85.871	12-2	79.680	+2, +1.936
7	Green Bay	85.786	10-4	81.543	+0, +0.738
8	NY Giants	84.585	8-6	81.639	-2, -0.847
9	Chicago	83.196	8-6	81.264	+0, -0.450
10	Washington	82.651	8-6	81.158	+1, +0.799
11	Minnesota	82.053	8-6	80.842	+5, +1.134
12	Baltimore	81.944	9-5	79.951	-2, -1.299
13	Cincinnati	81.790	8-6	78.563	-1, +0.270
14	Dallas	81.107	8-6	81.323	+0, -0.083
15	New Orleans	80.927	6-8	81.313	+8, +1.772
16	Carolina	80.876	5-9	81.600	+5, +1.507
17	St Louis	80.545	6-7-1	82.359	-4, -0.961
18	Pittsburgh	80.341	7-7	79.713	-1, -0.502
19	Tampa Bay	80.248	6-8	80.276	-4, -0.887
20	Miami	79.874	6-8	80.516	-1, +0.311
21	NY Jets	79.442	6-8	81.615	-3, -0.743
22	Arizona	79.327	5-9	82.453	+5, +1.348
23	Indianapolis	78.570	9-5	79.505	+1, -0.503
24	San Diego	78.258	5-9	79.576	-4, -1.279
25	Detroit	77.993	4-10	81.913	-3, -1.189
26	Buffalo	77.496	5-9	80.823	-1, -0.999
27	Cleveland	76.810	5-9	78.732	-1, -1.403
28	Tennessee	75.710	5-9	80.691	+0, +0.063
29	Philadelphia	74.535	4-10	81.113	+0, -0.631
30	Oakland	72.856	4-10	79.179	+1, +0.620
31	Jacksonville	71.761	2-12	80.474	-1, -0.795
32	Kansas City	70.377	2-12	79.750	+0, -0.901

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for Mixed Doubles in Northwest Washington

USTA year-end ratings came out a few weeks ago and everyone is now busy forming teams for the 2013 season that begins for some sections and leagues right away in January.

However, in the Pacific Northwest, our 2013 Mixed season is just wrapping up.  As such, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what players' ratings would be if just their mixed matches were used to calculate their rating.  I've just posted the list for Northwest Washington on the site.  Given that the USTA doesn't include mixed matches in calculating ratings for players that play enough gender specific matches, these mixed ratings may or may not be close to what one's actual dynamic rating is.  But, it does represent a good estimate of what one's mixed exclusive rating might be.

Because the USTA calculates year-end ratings in November and I believe uses matches played through the end of October, the ratings list I've posted is for all play since 11/1 and includes matches played last weekend.  This is effectively a glimpse into what a 2013 mixed exclusive rating might be as of right now.

So, take a look and let me know what you think.

And even though the 2012 year-end ratings are out, I'm still getting requests for and creating Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports.  If you'd still like one, let me know.

2012/13 College Football Bowl Game Predictions

Here is a summary of my computer's predictions for this years bowl games.  I'll likely do more detailed prediction reports for the bigger games later.

Favorite	Margin	Underdog
Favorite	Margin	Underdog
Arizona	12.7	Nevada
Utah St	11.9	Toledo
Brigham Young	4.6	San Diego St
Central Florida	2.7	.Ball St
Louisiana-Lafayette	6.5	East Carolina
Washington	0.0	Boise St
Fresno St	11.3	.SMU
Western Kentucky	6.3	Central Michigan
San Jose St	9.9	Bowling Green
Cincinnati	8.6	Duke
Baylor	1.2	UCLA
Louisiana-Monroe	7.0	Ohio U.
Rutgers	3.8	Virginia Tech
Texas Tech	9.9	Minnesota
Rice	1.6	Air Force
West Virginia	3.6	.Syracuse
Arizona St	12.4	Navy
Oregon St	3.6	Texas
TCU	2.6	Michigan St
Vanderbilt	9.9	North Carolina St
Southern Cal	10.8	Georgia Tech
Iowa St	4.8	Tulsa
LSU	5.4	Clemson
Northwestern	0.6	Mississippi St
Oklahoma St	13.8	Purdue
Georgia	8.1	.Nebraska
South Carolina	6.9	Michigan
Stanford	5.3	Wisconsin
Florida St	4.9	Northern Illinois
Florida	17.3	Louisville
Oregon	5.5	.Kansas St
Texas A&M	2.5	.Oklahoma
Mississippi	5.2	Pittsburgh
Arkansas St	1.3	Kent St
Alabama	3.5	.Notre Dame

NFL Week 14 Projected Records

The projected records after week 14 are now posted and listed below as well.

No big changes from last week's projections, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly Denver and Houston are projected to get the byes in the AFC despite them both losing to the Patriots this year and New England being #1 in the rankings this week.  This is in large part because they host the 49ers next week while Denver does have to go to Baltimore but then gets Cleveland and Kansas City.

The wildcards in the AFC are projected to be Indianapolis and then one of Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.  The latter two are both projected at 9-7 but the nod presently goes to the Steelers based on the better chance of 9-7 and 10-6, although if they both finish 9-7 and Cincy gets there by beating Pittsburgh, they could have the tie-breaker advantage.

There is presently no drama in the NFC with both Seattle and Chicago being clear of Dallas and Washington and the Giants as well being at 10-6 ahead of them.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Denver	13-3	48.0	0.0	47.7
Atlanta	13-3	44.6	23.6	26.8
Houston	13-3	43.2	41.3	14.0
New England	12-4	43.1	43.1	12.6
San Francisco	11-4-1	41.1	12.6	38.0
Green Bay	11-5	45.5	19.9	29.9
Indianapolis	10-6	48.9	28.9	17.9
NY Giants	10-6	45.5	18.4	31.8
Seattle	10-6	44.3	23.4	27.0
Chicago	10-6	41.2	17.2	32.9
Baltimore	10-6	38.6	36.4	13.6
Dallas	9-7	44.6	15.3	32.9
Pittsburgh	9-7	44.3	15.7	33.2
Washington	9-7	44.1	22.7	27.6
Cincinnati	9-7	39.9	13.9	35.9
Minnesota	8-8	45.6	24.5	26.1
NY Jets	8-8	40.1	15.0	35.0
St Louis	7-8-1	43.2	33.5	15.7
San Diego	7-9	47.1	19.9	28.8
Miami	7-9	46.5	9.2	37.0
Tampa Bay	7-9	43.0	33.6	16.1
Cleveland	6-10	47.9	14.2	37.1
Buffalo	6-10	42.4	32.0	17.8
Carolina	6-10	41.7	12.7	38.7
New Orleans	6-10	39.9	37.5	12.8
Philadelphia	5-11	45.5	18.4	34.0
Tennessee	5-11	44.9	34.5	14.8
Arizona	5-11	44.6	30.8	18.8
Detroit	5-11	41.9	31.7	18.5
Oakland	4-12	53.1	20.6	24.0
Kansas City	3-13	45.4	13.2	41.1
Jacksonville	3-13	43.0	13.5	42.2

NFL Week 14 Ratings and Rankings - New England Stays #1

The ratings after week 14 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 and extends their lead over new #2 San Francisco.  Houston and Denver both drop while Seattle and the Giants move up 2 spots each.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	90.149	10-3	81.315	+0, +1.229
2	San Francisco	87.081	9-3-1	81.184	+2, +0.330
3	Houston	87.001	11-2	80.451	-1, -1.569
4	Denver	86.944	10-3	80.072	-1, -0.470
5	Seattle	85.775	8-5	82.061	+2, +0.992
6	NY Giants	85.432	8-5	80.816	+2, +0.880
7	Green Bay	85.048	9-4	81.191	-1, -0.024
8	Atlanta	83.935	11-2	79.028	-3, -1.509
9	Chicago	83.646	8-5	80.944	+0, -0.602
10	Baltimore	83.243	9-4	80.080	+0, -0.394
11	Washington	81.852	7-6	81.219	+3, +0.304
12	Cincinnati	81.520	7-6	79.085	+1, -0.639
13	St Louis	81.506	6-6-1	82.386	+2, +0.533
14	Dallas	81.190	7-6	81.760	+2, +0.910
15	Tampa Bay	81.135	6-7	79.491	-4, -1.156
16	Minnesota	80.919	7-6	80.677	+1, +0.725
17	Pittsburgh	80.843	7-6	79.807	-5, -1.398
18	NY Jets	80.185	6-7	82.056	+1, +0.187
19	Miami	79.563	5-8	81.525	+1, -0.249
20	San Diego	79.537	5-8	79.644	+4, +0.682
21	Carolina	79.369	4-9	81.352	+5, +1.153
22	Detroit	79.182	4-9	81.722	+0, +0.194
23	New Orleans	79.155	5-8	81.227	-5, -0.930
24	Indianapolis	79.073	9-4	79.139	-3, -0.122
25	Buffalo	78.495	5-8	81.029	-2, -0.489
26	Cleveland	78.213	5-8	79.213	+1, +0.547
27	Arizona	77.979	4-9	82.931	-2, -0.363
28	Tennessee	75.647	4-9	81.541	+0, -0.201
29	Philadelphia	75.166	4-9	81.209	+0, +1.396
30	Jacksonville	72.556	2-11	80.464	+0, -0.588
31	Oakland	72.236	3-10	80.144	+0, -0.432
32	Kansas City	71.278	2-11	80.089	+0, -1.004

NFL Week 13 Projected Records

The projected records after week 13 are now posted and listed below as well.

Things are getting a bit more interesting.

In the NFC, Green Bay is now projected as the division winner and the NFC East is getting closer with the Giants and Redskins now both projected at 9-7 and Dallas just one game back at 8-8 and the loser of all that won't get a wildcard, those going to Chicago and Seattle.

The AFC is only interesting with Cincinnati chasing Pittsburgh and Indianapolis for the last wildcard, presently falling short in the projections.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	45.9	20.5	27.3
Atlanta	14-2	40.4	21.1	28.6
New England	12-4	42.0	22.7	27.3
Denver	12-4	47.7	42.9	8.9
Green Bay	11-5	41.3	16.5	32.4
Baltimore	11-5	37.6	23.7	26.3
San Francisco	10-5	38.0	34.7	15.1
Seattle	10-6	42.0	20.6	28.9
Indianapolis	10-6	41.9	17.2	31.6
Pittsburgh	10-6	40.8	17.0	31.8
Chicago	10-6	36.3	31.5	18.5
NY Giants	9-7	38.7	35.8	13.7
Cincinnati	9-7	37.2	32.6	17.5
Washington	9-7	36.0	13.8	34.2
Tampa Bay	8-8	42.3	32.4	17.2
Dallas	8-8	38.9	20.4	29.5
St Louis	7-8	37.6	17.1	33.0
Miami	7-9	42.9	20.0	28.8
New Orleans	7-9	39.6	21.0	28.9
Minnesota	7-9	38.6	33.0	15.8
Buffalo	7-9	37.7	21.6	28.3
NY Jets	7-9	37.3	29.7	20.3
San Diego	6-10	42.2	26.4	22.8
Tennessee	6-10	37.9	15.8	34.3
Cleveland	5-11	44.1	40.5	7.5
Arizona	5-11	42.0	33.0	15.4
Detroit	5-11	40.9	29.4	20.2
Carolina	5-11	39.5	18.8	31.9
Oakland	4-12	47.0	26.7	20.3
Philadelphia	4-12	43.2	17.2	36.9
Kansas City	3-13	45.2	20.7	31.1
Jacksonville	3-13	41.8	27.1	23.1

NFL Week 13 Ratings and Rankings - New England moves to #1

The ratings after week 13 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England moves to #1 and Denver moves ahead of San Francisco to #3.  Seattle also moves up to #7.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.920	9-3	81.164	+1, +0.401
2	Houston	88.570	11-1	79.678	-1, -0.253
3	Denver	87.414	9-3	80.882	+1, +0.075
4	San Francisco	86.751	8-3-1	81.433	-1, -0.880
5	Atlanta	85.444	11-1	78.820	+1, +0.087
6	Green Bay	85.072	8-4	81.652	+1, -0.004
7	Seattle	84.783	7-5	82.316	+3, +0.752
8	NY Giants	84.552	7-5	80.985	+0, -0.300
9	Chicago	84.248	8-4	80.501	-4, -1.294
10	Baltimore	83.637	9-3	79.777	-1, -0.731
11	Tampa Bay	82.291	6-6	79.979	+0, -0.428
12	Pittsburgh	82.241	7-5	80.098	+2, +1.032
13	Cincinnati	82.159	7-5	79.291	+0, +0.847
14	Washington	81.548	6-6	81.230	-2, +0.160
15	St Louis	80.973	5-6-1	82.296	+3, +0.770
16	Dallas	80.280	6-6	81.207	-1, -0.559
17	Minnesota	80.194	6-6	80.766	-1, -0.491
18	New Orleans	80.085	5-7	80.813	-1, -0.380
19	NY Jets	79.998	5-7	82.608	+1, +0.136
20	Miami	79.812	5-7	80.870	+1, +0.284
21	Indianapolis	79.195	8-4	79.668	+3, +0.479
22	Detroit	78.988	4-8	81.062	-3, -0.889
23	Buffalo	78.984	5-7	81.287	+2, +0.758
24	San Diego	78.855	4-8	79.933	-2, -0.633
25	Arizona	78.342	4-8	82.139	+1, +0.490
26	Carolina	78.216	3-9	81.582	-3, -1.271
27	Cleveland	77.666	4-8	80.178	+0, +0.314
28	Tennessee	75.848	4-8	81.810	+0, -0.233
29	Philadelphia	73.770	3-9	80.940	+1, +0.031
30	Jacksonville	73.144	2-10	81.141	-1, -0.714
31	Oakland	72.668	3-9	80.419	+0, -0.141
32	Kansas City	72.282	2-10	80.404	+0, +1.292

College Football Week 14 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon stays #1 ahead of Alabama

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Oregon stays #1 this week with Alabama and Florida unchanged behind them.  Kansas State moves up 2 spots to #4 moving ahead of Texas A&M and Notre Dame.

Why didn't Alabama move up after their win over Georgia?  Simply put, as rated last week, Alabama was expected to win by more than they did resulting in their rating actually dropping slightly.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, and Alabama does move ahead of Oregon to #4.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	93.708	11-1	72.868	+0, -0.275
2	Alabama	91.036	12-1	72.287	+0, -0.636
3	Florida	88.747	11-1	75.401	+0, -0.541
4	Kansas St	88.095	11-1	74.068	+2, +0.726
5	Texas A&M	87.736	10-2	73.392	-1, -0.657
6	Notre Dame	87.725	12-0	73.827	-1, -0.252
7	Georgia	86.710	11-2	72.920	+0, -0.369
8	South Carolina	85.911	10-2	73.382	+1, -0.457
9	Stanford	85.575	11-2	76.986	-1, -0.844
10	Oklahoma	85.443	10-2	73.981	+1, +0.218
11	LSU	85.129	10-2	73.698	-1, -0.580
12	Oregon St	84.245	9-3	75.103	+0, -0.153
13	Ohio State	83.134	12-0	69.399	+1, -0.220
14	Oklahoma St	82.856	7-5	73.151	-1, -0.881
15	Southern Cal	82.578	7-5	76.202	+0, -0.253
16	Utah St	82.077	10-2	65.887	+0, +0.141
17	Florida St	80.671	11-2	64.763	+0, -0.804
18	Baylor	80.597	7-5	76.201	+5, +0.509
19	Texas	80.465	8-4	75.754	-1, -0.763
20	Wisconsin	80.313	8-5	72.124	+9, +1.936
21	Arizona St	79.907	7-5	73.756	+0, -0.269
22	Arizona	79.844	7-5	74.752	+0, -0.294
23	Clemson	79.835	10-2	67.413	-3, -0.393
24	UCLA	79.676	9-4	74.599	+1, -0.001
25	Michigan	79.205	8-4	72.371	-1, -0.570