Thursday, July 16, 2015

Another interesting USTA League Dynamic NTRP disqualification correctly predicted by my ratings

I've written about interesting disqualifications I've come across before, and I recently learned about one that I thought was worthwhile writing about.

This player was DQ'd despite having a losing record, but I've see this happen before with a 1-3 record and another with a 2-4 record.  What is unique about this new one is it was in just 3 matches with a 1-2 record.  So there is no guessing as to which matches were strikes!

So how can a player go 1-2 and get DQ'd?

Using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings, here is the player's chart.

The chart shows the self-rated 4.0 had ratings well into the 4.5 range for each match, each being a strike.  So my ratings agree with/correctly predict the strikes and DQ yet again.

The player played doubles the first two matches losing both but by close scores.  That alone isn't going to generate a strike though, otherwise a lot more self-rated players would get strikes.  What caused these matches to be rated so high is that the opponents were high rated 4.0s, but more importantly the partner was a pretty low rated 4.0.  This is a recipe for a strike as the computer looks at the ratings of the players involved and figures the self-rate has to be really good to have carried a low rated partner to such a close loss against strong opponents.

Then the third match was a lopsided singles win that was high rated and would seem to confirm that the self-rate really was that good and carried the partner in the doubles losses.

So yes, it is possible to get strikes and be DQ'd with a losing record in just 3 matches.

If you are aware of any other strange or unexpected DQ's, let me know.