Friday, July 24, 2015

Preliminary - Checking the PNW Early Start Ratings against my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings, 96% accurate!

I wrote a bit ago that the PNW Early Start Ratings are out.  I will try to do a more comprehensive analysis soon, but I did a quick check of players from several teams at my club and of the 10 or so that were given bumps, I had all but one correct.  And of the remaining that weren't bumped, I only predicted one that should have been.  So that is roughly 48 for 50 or 96% accurate with no margin of error.

I'm not sure that high rate will hold up when I look across a larger set of players, but I'm pretty pleased with it.  I've always said my estimates aren't perfect, but 96% is not too bad.