Friday, June 26, 2015

I went 1-3 and got disqualified from my USTA League NTRP level! Correctly predicting NTRP DQ's

Ok, it wasn't me, but I was told about a situation where a player played four matches, winning just one, and was 3-strike DQ'd and promoted up a level.

On the surface, it wouldn't seem like a 1-3 record should result in any more than one strike let alone three, but unexpected DQs can happen like I've written about before.  If we take a closer look at this one, it appears it is another as my ratings agree with and would have predicted the strikes and DQ.

In this case, the player was a self-rated 4.5 and playing in a 4.5+ league.  That alone can increase the chances of getting strikes because the player may end up playing against 5.0s, so it is similar to playing up which is often a sure fire recipe for getting strikes.  But what do my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say about these four matches?

The first match was indeed played against two 5.0s, and with a 4.5 partner.  The 4 & 2 loss was considered more than respectable in this case and the computer says it generated a rating well into the range for a 5.0.  Strike 1.

The second match was a match tie-break loss but not against any 5.0s this time, but one opponent was a 4.5 that had appealed down so a strong one.  This match did not generate a strike, but still resulted in a very high 4.5 match rating.

The third match was a 1 & 1 win against a good and very good 4.5 playing with a so-so 4.5.  The computer looks at that and says the self-rated player had to be the reason for such a lopsided score and resulted in another very high rating.  Strike 2.

The last match was a 1 & 3 loss against some good 4.5s and resulted in a high in the range for a 4.5 match rating, but the way the algorithm works the dynamic rating is calculated from the prior ratings too and the result was a dynamic rating still over the threshold for a strike despite the match itself not being over.  Strike 3.

That is what my ratings say, what did the USTA say?  I received a copy of the DQ letter and it indeed identified the three matches I did as the strikes.

So another DQ that my ratings got right.  If you'd heard of or seen a strange DQ, let me know about it and I'll take a look.