But what about predicting the individual matches? Here is what I found from today's matches. The table below shows the ratings gap between the players/pairs and how often the favored team won vs upset.
Probably no big surprises here, the smaller the gap, the more likely it is that there might be an upset. In fact, when the teams were nearly dead even, the lower rated player/pair won 60% of the time. Now this is a small sample so don't read too much into it.
It is a little surprising to see there were more upsets when the gap was 0.35-0.55 than 0.25-0.35, but again, this is a small sample.
To compare, here is the same analysis for the 18 & over 4.0 Men played a few weeks ago.
In the 18 & over division, the higher rated player/pair seems to have won slightly more often.
What do you think? Is this close to what you'd expect?