Saturday, November 8, 2014

2014 USTA League 40 & over 4.0 Men's Nationals Semifinals Preview

The semifinalist have been decided at the 40 & over 4.0 Nationals with three of the favorites advancing.  If the ratings were pretty good predicting the flights, what about for the semis?

In the first semi, Texas faces Pacific Northwest.  Texas went 4-0/14-6 in their flight while PNW went 3-0/13-2.  So it would seem PNW did better, but perhaps they just had an easier road which is backed up by the original preview.  What about their ratings?

At the start of Nationals, Texas' top-8 averaged 4.19 while PNW's was 4.17, so edge to Texas.  But after their play in their flights, Texas stayed at 4.19 and PNW also stayed the same at 4.17.  However, one of Texas' top-8 hasn't played at Nationals so appears to not be there, so taking them out drops their average to 4.18.  Same for PNW and their average drops to 4.16.

Now, Texas has played more of their lower rated players during Nationals, so if this continues they may lose their advantage, so who wins will come down to who plays and the match-ups, but it appears on paper Texas has a slight advantage.

The second semi is Mid-Atlantic vs Hawaii.  Both teams went 3-0, Mid-Atlantic winning each match 3-2 and finishing 9-6 on courts while Hawaii went 11-4 on courts.  What about their ratings?

At the start of Nationals, Mid-Atlantic's top-8 averaged 4.17 while Hawaii, the unexpected member of the final 4 was at 4.02.  But through their flight play, Mid-Atlantic fell to 4.13 while Hawaii jumped up to 4.11.  But again both teams are missing one of their top-8 and without them they fall to 4.09 and 4.07 respectively.

Mid-Atlantic seems to have a slight advantage in this semi but it is close enough that it could certainly go the other way and Hawaii has been winning matches they shouldn't have on paper already.

In either case, it appears the Texas/PNW winner should be favored in the final.