Saturday, August 31, 2013

More interesting USTA League stats - Which court does the winning team win most often?

Continuing on in my effort to share interesting stats from the data I collect for the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating reports I generate, I took a look at how often the winning team in a match wins the different courts.

Specifically, I took a look at all team matches that were 2 singles and 3 doubles.  Here is the percent of the time the winning team wins each court.

CourtWinning %
1S72.9
2S73.8
1D74.9
2D76.2
3D75.5

It isn't a huge margin, but pretty clearly the winning team is going to win court 2 doubles more often than any other court.  And court 1 singles is won the least often.  And interestingly, all of the doubles courts are won more often than either of the singles courts.

What can we take away from this?

First, it appears that the key to winning is having good doubles teams and not singles guys.  This goes against intuition a bit (IMHO) that the easiest way to having a strong team is to have 2 lock-down singles guys and 1 great doubles team (this requires the fewest strong players to win a team match, just 4).

Second, you need depth at doubles.  Whether it is because captains flip-flop and play their best doubles team on court 2, or just because the better team is deeper and their second best doubles team is better than the opponent's, the winning team wins court 2 doubles most often and court 3 doubles next most often.

Third, and this one probably isn't a surprise, it looks like the most likely court to be thrown when juggling line-ups is court 1 singles with the winning team losing it more often than court 2 singles.  And court 1 doubles also suffers from this too.

What do you think?  What other interesting stats are you interested in seeing?  Let me know.