Drilling in to what sections make USTA League Nationals semi-finals the most - Counts by division

USTA League Nationals are over for the Adult leagues and I took a look at how many times each section made the semi-finals overall, now it is time to break it down by division.

First we look at the 18 & Over division.

Southern led the overall totals and leads for 18 & Over too, and Intermountain isn't far behind despite making only one semi this year.  They made a whopping 7 of 11 semi-finals in 2021.

Next, 40 & Over.

Southern leads here too, but Texas is second and three sections are tied behind them.  Texas made the semis in 75% (6 of 8) of the events this year.

Last, 55 & Over.

Southern Cal leads here also going to 75% (6 of 8) of the semis this year, but went to 7 of 8 in 2021!  Southern falls all the way to second.

What sections make the semis at USTA League Nationals the most often? Southern and SoCal lead!

With the Adult Nationals (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) complete, I thought I'd take a look at how often each of the sections make the semis.

I'll probably end up slicing this data by gender and division, but to start we'll just look at the total across both genders and all three divisions over the past three years (2021-2023).

We see that Southern and SoCal are well ahead of the rest with 41 and 35 appearances respectively, but Midwest, Florida, and Texas make a good showing each with 25 or more semi-final appearances.

All of the sections do show up, although 2022 was the only one of the three years were every section wasn't represented with Southwest missing out.

In the above, i used 2021 thru 2023 as that is post-COVID.  If we look at the three years pre-COVID it is similar, but not the same.

We see Southern still leads with nearly the same total, but Texas and Florida on close behind, SoCal drops down to mid-pack and PNW moves up some.

Still, there is a clear trend of the same handful of Sections consistently making the semis more than the rest, and Southern has been at the top throughout this period.

What do you think?  Is this expected?  Southern is by far the largest section and teams have to go through more playoffs that most other areas to get to Nationals, are they more battle tested?

Or do warm weather sections have an advantage in that players can more easily play year-round and continue to improve or be sharp come Nationals?

Should the USTA do something to give the smaller sections a better chance at making the semis more regularly?

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Recap - 9 new champions crowned

Week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is over, and with all of the Adult (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) are complete.  We only have a couple weekends of Mixed Nationals left on the calendar the next two weekends.

You can see prior recaps here.

This weekend had 9 events going on, the busiest of the year.

The 40 & Over division wrapped up this weekend with the 4.0 level in San Diego.

The women's event saw two 3-1 wins with Southern beating Florida and Midwest beating SoCal in the semis, and then Southern swept the final 4-0.

For the men Texas beat Mid-Atlantic 3-1 and Middle States swept Midwest 4-0 before a tight 2-2 final with Middle States taking it losing 4 fewer games.

The 55 & Over division also wrapped up but with two levels, 7.0 and 9.0 in Orlando.

The 7.0 women had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Midwest over Hawaii and SoCal over Southwest, and then a 2-1 win for SoCal in the final.

The 7.0 men also had 2-1 wins in each semi and the final with Southern beating Eastern and SoCal beating Caribbean with Southern taking the final.

At the 9.0 level, the women's event had Eastern beat New England and Florida beat SoCal, both by 2-1 margins, before Florida won the final 3-0.

The 9.0 men had two 3-0 wins in the semis, SoCal over Middle States and NorCal over Eastern, and NorCal took battle of California 2-1.

Then, Mixed 18 & Over got going in Arizona with three levels playing.

The 6.0 event had Southern beat PNW 3-0 and NorCal take out Middle States 2-1 with Southern winning the final 2-1.

At 8.0, New England and SoCal both won 2-1 over PNW and Florida respectively, with SoCal winning the final by a 2-1 score.

And at 10.0, the semis were both won 2-1 by SoCal over NorCal and PNW over Mid-Atlantic and then SoCal won the final 3-0.

Congratulations to the new National Champions!

What ties did we have for week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The round-robin of this weekend's USTA League Nationals is complete (or nearly so) and we have 9 sets of semi-finalists.

The 55 & Over 7.0 was played in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Midwest and Southwest, then a huge 6-way tie at 3-1 for two spots.  SoCal and Hawaii were 9-3 on courts so got the spots ahead of Southern and Texas (both 8-4), Eastern (7-5) and PNW (6-6).  PNW is probably a little bummed as they went 3-1 and beat Hawaii, but had to play 4-0 / 11-1 Midwest and lost 3-0.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The men also had two 4-0 teams in Southern and SoCal, then a 5-way tie at 3-1.  Caribbean got the 3rd spot at 9-3 on courts, then Eastern and Middle States were 8-4 and Eastern lost fewer sets to take the last spot.  Southern was a surprise, but the other three were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 9.0 was also in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Eastern and SoCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Florida and New England both 9-3 on courts to take the spots over 8-4 Southern and 7-5 Middle States.  Three of those were favorites and another one a contender in the simulation!

The men had a 6-way tie at 3-1!  SoCal, Eastern, NorCal, and Middle States were all 3-1 or better to take the spots over 7-5 Missouri Valley and 6-6 Texas.  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The 40 & Over 4.0 was in San Diego and the women had three 4-0 teams in Southern, Midwest, and SoCal and then just two teams at 3-1, Florida being 11-5 on courts to beat out 10-6 Middle States.  Two of these teams were favorites and one was a contender in the simulation.

The men had one 4-0 team in Texas, then a 6-way tie at 3-1.  Midwest was 12-4 and then 11-5 teams Middle States and Mid-Atlantic rounded out the semi-finalists ahead of NorCal and Southern (10-6) and SoCal (9-7).  NorCal was 3-1 / 10-6 and beat Midwest 3-1 head to head, but they were a court back so didn't get the spot.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of the semi-finalsts were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 18 & Over Mixed got started in Arizona and the 6.0 level had a nice and tidy four 4-0 teams in Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW.  The simulation nailed this one, these teams being the top-4 teams expected to make the semis!

The 8.0 level had two 4-0 teams in New England and SoCal and then three 3-1 teams for two spots.  Florida was 9-3 getting one spot, and PNW at 8-4 beat out Southern with the same record due to beating them head to head.  Three of the semi-finalists were in the top-6 of the simulation.

Last, the 10.0 level had five 3-1 teams for the four spots and SoCal, PNW, Mid-Atlantic, and NorCal were all 8-4 or better to beat out Eastern at 6-6.  Eastern did beat NorCal head to head but had to play Mid-Atlantic which hurt their court record.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of those teams were the top-3 in the simulation, and the other was a contender.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 5 of USTA League Nationals is in the books, here are some observations.

The last 40 & Over event of the year is the 4.0 men and women.

The women have only four 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and New England, and the simulation now says it won't stay that way with just a 13% chance of even three 4-0 teams.  Look for Middle States, Eastern, and Florida to be the most likely to break up those top-4.

The men have five 2-0 teams in Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, and Southern, and just a 10% chance of four 4-0 teams.  The four semi-finalists are likely to come from those five, but SoCal will try to insert themselves into the mix.

The 55 & Over 7.0 women have five 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, Southwest, and PNW and just a 3% chance of four 4-0 teams.  Look for NorCal and Texas as the most likely to get in the mix.

The 7.0 men have just four 2-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and PNW, and it is very unlikely we have four or even three remain 4-0.  Carribean and Eastern are most likely to join in.

The 9.0 women have Florida, NorCal, Eastern, SoCal, and Intermountain all 2-0 but just an 8% of four 4-0 teams.  New England is most likely to try to break things up.

The men have have SoCal, Southern, Middle States, and NorCal all 2-0, and a decent 28% chance of three 4-0 at the end.  It is very likely those four are the semi-finalists.

18 & Over Mixed is going on with three levels in play.

The 6.0 has six 2-0 teams, but some play each other and just a 15% chance four remain that way.  The current top-4 of Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW are the ones likely to advance.

The 8.0 also has six 2-0 teams, but just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.  New England, SoCal, Southern, and Florida are the ones likely to advance.

And the 10.0 has just two 2-0 teams due to just 10 teams there, New England and PNW, and those teams play each other and there will be five teams vying for four spots, NorCal, New England, PNW, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic.

It should be an exciting finish to the round-robin on Saturday.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 10.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 10.0 mixed.

Teams: 10

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 54% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.95 / 4.56

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.86 / 4.68

Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Middle States, PNW

Just 10 teams, but not as competitive as you might think due to the schedule and a few really strong teams.  With just 10, you might think a 2-2 record has a shot in some scenarios, and it does, a decent 34%.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 6.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 6.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.28 / 2.98

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.15 / 3.03

Favorites: Middle States, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, PNW

Another competitive event with little chance of a lot of undefeated teams and a lot of contenders.  3-1 almost certainly makes the semis, question is how many will be there and what will break the tie.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 8.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 8.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 8%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 83% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.09 / 3.87

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.05 / 3.96

Favorites: Hawaii, NorCal
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, Northern, SoCal, Southern

This appears to be a very competitive event with just two favorites, but they aren't stand out favorites, and a long list of contenders.  Being a three court format, just a few points here and there could be the difference between semis and 10th.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 9.0 Women

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 9.0 women.

Teams: 14

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.35 / 4.10

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.32 / 4.22

Favorites: Eastern, Florida, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, PNW

This appears to be very competitive with little chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, due to having just 14 teams there.  The schedules aren't quite as even as the men, and while I list four favorites a couple of the contenders are very close, a big tie at 3-1 is very possible.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 9.0 Men

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 9.0 men.

Teams: 15

Chance of 3 undefeated: 4%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 79% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.48 / 4.23

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.37/ 4.32

Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Intermountain, Northern, Texas

This appears to be very competitive with little chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, due to having just 15 there, and the closeness of the teams on paper.  The schedules are very even 4.32 to 4.37, but a few teams do stand out as  more likely to get to 4-0 or 3-1.  There is even a 5% chance the last spot goes to a 2-2 team!

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 7.0 Women

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 7.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 36%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 13%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 2%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 80% / 3

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.40 / 3.29

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.46 / 3.35

Favorites: Midwest, Southern, SoCal
Contenders: Caribbean, Missouri Valley, Middle States, Texas

Three teams have most likely records of 4-0, an interestingly just one has a 3-1 most likely record, but there are still a lot of iterations where there is a tie for the last spot.  It could be competitive for that spot.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 7.0 Men

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 7.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 14%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.57 / 3.35

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.52 / 3.40

Favorites: Caribbean, Eastern, Missouri Valley
Contenders: Hawaii, Middle States, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

Most likely records of 3-1 could occur for the top-7 teams leading to a big tie-breaker.  But three teams have >20% chances of 4-0 so at least one could very well do it.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 48%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 25%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 5%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 3

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.01 / 3.77

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.97     / 3.82

Favorites: Middle States, Midwest, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Pacific Northwest

Fringe: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic

A very broad range here across the team strength, a full 0.24, so there are some definite favorites and just five Favorites/Contenders.  I added a Fringe category as the drop off after those two is big.  Because of all this, a relatively high chance of five undefeated (5%) and very good chance of four (25%), so a loss early may really knock a team out.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and there is one team with a high score, Southwest, at 0.94 due to a lot of 4.5s in the past, but they aren't listed even as a Fringe team.  Will they surprise because of past strong players?  Other teams are in the 0.6s and lower led by Hawaii and Missouri Valley, also not even Fringe teams.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 33%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 9%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.10 / 3.88

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.03 / 3.93

Favorites: Intermountain, SoCal, Texas
Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, Southern

The range of strong to weak is pretty big, and the strongest teams got reasonably easy schedules, so three favorites and just four contenders.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and there are some high scores!  Three teams, led by Texas at 1.1 are over 1.0, with Middle States and New England nearly matching them.  Each is largely driven by having players above 4.0 in the past.  This isn't uncommon in 40+, but each has double digits in this category.  Intermountain and Midwest are in the 0.8s and a full four more in the 0.7s.  Even if everything isn't by the book, the teams appear to be equally matched by this measure.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

How often are 2-2 ties happening at 2023 USTA League Nationals?

We've had three weekends of play at Nationals where the 40 & Over division has had events, and with the 4-court format used for 40 & Over, that means 2-2 "ties" are happening.  There are established tie-breakers when the team match ends in a 2-2 tie so that all works, but I still think it is silly that the 4-court format exists and thankfully it appears to be going away next year!

But since it is used this year, it is always interesting to look to see how many matches end in 2-2 ties, and how far down the tie-breaker rules matches go to be decided.

As background, see my prior analysis on 2021 and 2022 matches using this format where we see a pretty consistent trend of around 26% of team matches ending in 2-2 ties, around 10% of all of them being tied on sets, and around 1% of all matches being tied on games and being decided by the court one winner.

So far, the 3.0, 3.5, and 4.5 levels of 40 & Over have played with the 4.0 level to be played this coming weekend.

Overall there have been 226 team matches played, and 62 (27%) have ended in 2-2 ties.  Of those 62, 43 were decided by the sets lost tie-breaker leaving 19 (8.4%) to be decided by the games lost tie-breaker, and 18 of those were, with just one (0.44%) having to be decided by the winner of court one doubles.  These numbers are generally consistent with past years, although the number having to be decided by the court one doubles winner is a little lower than past years.

One level/gender stands out as the one with the most ties this year and that was the 4.5 women round-robin where 14 of the 34 team matches (41%) were tied 2-2, five were tied on sets (15%) and the one tied on games  (3%) happened here.

Interestingly none of the 2-2 ties for the 4.5 women were in the semis/3rd-4th/final, but the other levels/genders had some:

• 3.0 women - The final was a 2-2 tie decided on sets.
• 3.0 men - Each semi and the final were 2-2 ties!  Each one decided on sets.
• 3.5 women - One semi, the 3rd-4th, and final were 2-2 ties, the final decided on sets.
• 3.5 men - Both semis and the 3rd-4th were 2-2 ties.
• 4.5 men - 3rd-4th and the final were 2-2 ties, the final decided by 2 games!

 That is 12 of 24 or 50%, so the matches are more closely matched than regular season for sure, but also round-robin matches it appears.

We'll see how this weekend's matches go!

What do you think, are you sorry to see the 4-court format go?  Did you like the excitement of counting sets and games? 🤣

How to fix the USTA League Nationals format so an undefeated team isn't sent home

The USTA has been using an un-flighted round-robin format at Nationals for a number of years now, and for regular readers of my blog, you know I've written about a number of things that are issues with the format.  There are some positives of the format too of course, but it would be great if some steps were taken to mitigate the issues.

One of the big issues is that the format inherently allows for there to be more than four 4-0 teams, but just four teams advance to the semis, so it is possible for a 4-0 team to be sent home.  All teams should know this going in and take steps to give themselves the best chance at winning the standings tie-breaker between the 4-0 teams, but it would still be really tough if a team goes 4-0 and doesn't advance.

While the chances of it happening are usually very very small, it is always possible and in fact has happened at least twice.  Earlier this year at the 55 & Over National Invitational, the 7.0 flight had five 4-0 teams and Eastern was tied with Southern and Midwest at 4-0 and 8-4 on courts, but lost more sets and missed out on the semis.

Then this weekend at 40 & Over 3.0 Nationals it happened again with Texas being 4-0 and 12-4 on courts, but PNW at 4-0 and 13-3 on courts beat them out for 4th.

And just a few weeks ago it very nearly happened and came down to the last match where Southern lost a 2-2 match where winning a match tie-break or a few more games would have resulted in five 4-0 teams.

You might say, it has only happened twice, what is the big deal?  But tell that to that Eastern and Texas teams it happened to.  And it has very nearly happened several other times and only upsets prevented it from happening.  And it has happened numerous times at Sectionals events (also here and here), although this is largely on the section for implementing the format poorly.

What is the solution?  There are several that could be considered.

One would be to go back to four flights where just the flight winners advance.  By definition, you can only have one undefeated team in a full round-robin flight, but doing this would lose all the benefits of the un-flighted round-robin format, namely not having flights with different numbers of teams, all teams getting an equal number of matches (four), and a team that loses early still having a real chance to advance.  I don't think I'd recommend doing this.

Two would be to introduce quarterfinals so you could take the top-8 teams in the standings.  There is no way you can have nine 4-0 teams with the format, so this would guarantee an undefeated team gets to advance.  It would also address some of the inequities with the standings tie-breakers that are used, as they really don't work well when the teams being compared may not have played any common opponents can have significantly different strengths of schedule.

The challenge with this is it is adding a match to the schedule meaning teams would have to play three matches on one of the days, or the final is played on a 4th day (Monday) of the event.  Now, I'm guessing teams would prefer to play an extra match or stay an extra day to avoid the scenario of an undefeated team being sent home.  And many teams may stay through Monday and not rush out on Sunday anyway.

Three would be a variation of quarter finals where instead of taking a full 8 teams, there is a provision to have a play-in game between the 4th and 5th 4-0 teams if necessary to determine the 4th seed to go to the semis.  This would only be done if required, so would only add a match on the off chance this occurs, and while it would put these teams at a disadvantage having to play an extra match, I think it is still more equitable than sending a 4-0 team home.  Teams would know in advance they don't want to be in the 4th/5th game and try to take steps to avoid it.

A fourth option would be to redo the schedule after three matches in order to ensure undefeated teams play each other so it is decided on the court.  For example, in the case that happened this weekend, with five 3-0 teams and none of them playing each other, the schedule gets modified so at least the 4th and 5th teams in the standings play each other so you are guaranteed no more than four 4-0 teams.  Logistically this might be hard to do, but it would address the issue without adding days or matches.  One could also debate the fairness of only doing this for the 4th/5th teams and letting the other 4-0 teams play potentially weaker opponents so perhaps the redoing of the schedule need to include all the teams.

A fifth option would be to construct the schedule in a way to minimize the chance of it happening.  Today, the schedule is seemingly random which is great in that there is no bias, but given the large variation in team strength at Nationals it means some teams can end up with easy schedules and others with hard schedules which is not terribly fair when the teams are ultimately compared in standings using wins, courts, sets, games.  And in fact, we can see that this weekend where the five 4-0 teams happened, my simulation said there was a very good chance of it happening for this very reason, five strong teams got some of the easiest schedules, which greatly increased the chances of it happening.

If instead of a random schedule the teams were seeded or a strength identified like my simulations do, and then the round-robin schedule done in a way to have as equal schedule strength as possible, the chances of more than four 4-0 teams would go way down.  There would still be a chance of course, but if this was done then perhaps just the third play-in option could be used in the rare case it happens.

Sixth and last, like the fifth option this doesn't completely solve it but would reduce the chances of it happening, and that is to implement some of my suggestions to get rid of wildly out of level teams at Nationals.  As noted in the fifth option, the chances of more than four 4-0 teams is high because some teams are head and shoulders better than others, and if they get favorable schedules it is likely they all win.  Well, why are some teams head and shoulders better?  It is a combination of things that my suggestions would address by lowering strike thresholds, making more players subject to strikes, preventing tanking, and more.  If the teams are simply more similar, it becomes less likely a lot of teams go 4-0.

What would I do?  I personally think several of my suggestions in the sixth option need to be done regardless and that would help.  That alone may help make fairer schedules, but I think my fifth option needs to be done too to make the schedules more even.  After that, I'd vote for having quarterfinals, but would also support doing the play-in game.

What do you think?  What is the solution to this problem?  Or do you think it isn't a problem?

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Recap - A self-rated team wins, a 4-0 team misses the semis

Week 4 of USTA League Nationals is complete, here is a recap.  You can also see my recap after day 2 here.

This was the busiest week so far with 8 events going on.  And there were some notable events!

The most notable was that we had a team that went 4-0, didn't lose a match, and didn't advance to the semis!  This happened because five teams in the 40 & Over 3.0 men's event went 4-0 and only four can go to the semis.  The original simulation said it was a real possibility, then after the first day the chances went way up, and then it happened.  The team that got the short-end of the stick was Texas who finished in 5th.  In the semis we had two 2-2 ties, errr wins, with PNW beating Middle States due to one fewer set lost, and Southern beat NorCal also with one fewer set lost.  The final went to PNW in yet another 2-2 tie/win where they also lost one fewer set.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women was not quite as exciting until the final as Texas beat SoCal 4-0 and PNW beat NorCal 4-0, but in the final we had another 2-2 tie/win with Texas losing one fewer set.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women had its own form of excitement as Texas beat New England in one semi and Florida beat Mid-Atlantic in the other.  The final had Texas win 4-1.  What was the excitement?  Texas had a small roster, just 10, but the interesting thing is that 9 of those were self-rated.  Self-rated players at Nationals are not uncommon, but large numbers of them are usually at lower levels, not 4.0.  Everything could have been by the book and fair, but a team with that many self-rates winning Nationals makes you scratch your head.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men was relatively normal with Middle States beating Eastern and Southern taking out Florida to meet in the final where Southern won it all 3-2.  What is semi interesting is Southern has a fairly high shenanigans score indicating they had a lot of self-rates and/or players who had been 4.5s in the past.

[Update: Upon reviewing the Southern team, while the score was reasonably high, I saw no indication of any tanking, and self-rates didn't appear to manage scores, i.e. no shenanigans.  It appears to be a team that did it by the book.]

The 55 & Over events got going this weekend the 6.0 women saw MOValley beat SoCal and Northern beat Midwest, before MOValley won the final.

The 6.0 men was interesting in that they show SoCal in 4th, but 5th place Midwest in the semis.  Looking at the matches SoCal defaulted a court every match so must have been ruled ineligible to advance for that reason.  Normally teams must bring the minimum number of players, but I've heard of extenuating circumstances causing the shortage of players being a reason a team is allowed to play but they aren't eligible to advance.  The teams that did play had Midwest beat Eastern and Northern beat NorCal before Northern won it all.

The 8.0 women saw Texas beat Middle States and Florida beat Midwest before Florida won it all, all the matches 2-1 results.

Last, the 8.0 men saw Mid-Atlantic beat Southern and SoCal beat Florida with SoCal winning it all, again all the results were 2-1 so very close.

Congratulations to all the new champs!

What ties did we have for week 4 of 2023 USTA League Nationals? A 4-0 team sent home!

The round-robin for week 4 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is complete and we have eight sets of semi-finalists.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women had two 4-0 teams in Texas and Florida, then a 5-way tie at 3-1 for two spots.  Mid-Atlantic and New England went 14-6 and 13-7 on courts which was better than Southern and Middle States both at 12-8.  I noted in the preview/simulation that Texas had 9 self-rates and they came through to be the #1 seed perhaps bringing into question the validity of those self-ratings.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men also had two 4-0 teams in Middle States and Southern, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Florida and Eastern getting the spots with better court records than SoCal and Hawaii.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women also had two 4-0 teams in Texas and NorCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with PNW and SoCal having better court records over Florida and Midwest.

The 40 & Over 3.0 men is where things got interesting with five 4-0 teams and Texas being sent home without a loss with the worse court record despite having a tougher schedule than those who did advance.  The teams going on are Middle States, NorCal, Southern, and PNW.  See this for some suggestions on how to fix this.

The 55 & Over 6.0 women continued the trend of two 4-0 teams in MOValley and Midwest, then a 5-way tie at 3-1.  Northern had the best court record, but then SoCal and NorCal were both 9-3 on courts and SoCal got the spot having lost fewer sets.

The 55 & Over 6.0 men is an odd one as yet again there were two 4-0 teams in Eastern and NorCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Northern and SoCal listed as in 4th due to better court records than Midwest and PNW, but SoCal is not listed in the semis draw!  Instead Midwest is listed.  Looking at SoCal's matches, I see they defaulted a court every match (and still were in 4th!) which Nationals tries to avoid, so I have to think something happened due to that.

The 55 & Over 8.0 women also had two 4-0 teams!  Here it was Texas and Midwest, then Florida and Middle States were 3-1 with better court records than SoCal and Southern.

The 55 & Over 8.0 men broke the trend and had three 4-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, and Florida.  Four teams were tied at 3-1 for one spot, and Mid-Atlantic got it over NorCal despite both being 3-1 / 8-4 / 18-10.  This tie-breaker came down to games lost where Mid-Atlantic was better.

Congratulations to all the teams, good luck on Sunday

Well, it happened - An undefeated team misses the semis at USTA League Nationals!

Ever since the new format for USTA League Nationals came out, I've written about the possibility of more than four undefeated teams leading to a team without a loss missing out on the semis and being sent home.  It very nearly happened two weeks ago, an upset in the last match prevented it, and it has nearly happened several times at prior year's Nationals.

And in fact it has happened at a "National" event in the past, it was just 55 & Over Mixed 7.0 in April of 2022 at what is technically an "Invitational", but it uses the same format of Nationals so it effectively is a Nationals.  At that event, Eastern was 4-0 and tied on courts with two teams ahead of them, but lost more sets so lost the tie-breaker.

Well, it happened again, and this time at "real" Nationals, the 40 & Over 3.0 men's event.

I wrote in my simulation of the event that there was perhaps the largest chance of it occurring we'd seen, 16%, and after one day my updated simulation said the chances were now 34% as the five 2-0 teams didn't play each other on Saturday, so if they all just won, it would happen.

Each team won their 3rd match and each one faced an 0-3 or 1-2 team in their final match, so there was a strong probability it would happen at this point and it did.

The final standings were:

Middle States - 4-0 / 15-1
NorCal - 4-0 / 14-2
Southern - 4-0 / 14-2
PNW - 4-0 / 13-3
Texas - 4-0 / 12-4

The tie-breakers were clear, the 4-0 teams that were 13-3 or better on courts advanced, which mean Texas who won each of their matches 3-1 would not go the semis.

There are a few unfortunate things here.  The main one is that the format allows for a team to go to Nationals and not lose a team match, but not advance.  That has to be tough for the team and I hope they knew it was a possibility and this wasn't a surprise.

But another is that the criteria used to determine which team doesn't advance isn't exactly equitable.  Yes, Texas had the worst individual court record of the five teams, but the format used for Nationals doesn't have teams play the same opponents, and it is even possible that the teams tied at 4-0 don't play any common opponents.

This means one team could have a really tough schedule and eke by going 4-0 while another has a really easy schedule on their way to 4-0.  The team with the tough schedule will likely have more close wins and a worse individual court record, and as a result fare worse in the tie-breaker and not advance.

In this case, Texas played 1-3 Southwest, 2-2 Intermountain, 1-3 New England, and 1-3 Midwest, a combined 5-11.

PNW just ahead of them played 1-3 New England, 3-1 Caribbean, 2-2 Florida, and 1-3 Eastern, a combined 7-9, perhaps a tougher schedule.

But Southern got 0-4 Hawaii, 1-3 Midwest, 0-4 SoCal, and 1-3 Southwest, a combined 2-14!  This is clearly an easier schedule than Texas and likely contributed to Southern's individual court record being 14-2 to Texas' 12-4.

And NorCal got 0-4 SoCal, 2-2 Florida, 0-4 MOvalley, and 0-4 Hawaii, also a combined 2-14, a very weak schedule.

Middle States opponents were 4-12, so a bit tougher than Southern's and NorCal's, but not exactly tough.

My preview highlighted the schedule strengths to be:

• Middle States - 3.05
• NorCal - 3.05
• Southern - 3.08
• PNW - 3.05
• Texas - 3.07

So NorCal, Middle States, and PNW had easier schedules than Texas.

If we look at who actually played, the played schedule strengths were:

• Middle States - 2.99
• NorCal - 2.99
• Southern - 3.03
• PNW - 3.05
• Texas - 3..05

Here Texas had the toughest schedule, NorCal and Middle States the easiest.  So there is something to the theory that Texas may have missed out on the semis simply because they had the toughest schedule.

This makes it especially tough for a team to lose out by one court when they had one of the two toughest schedules and the other teams they were in a tie with had easier schedule.

With a random round-robin schedule, it is hard to create similar schedules, but I'm not sure any attempt is made to make more of an equitable schedule and perhaps there should be.

To be fair, I've written about this for years and I have to hope everyone involved knew of this possibility going in, so everyone knew the rules and the possibility of this and what they may need to do to win the tie-breaker.  If so, them is the rules everyone is playing by so you have to accept it.

Stay tuned, I'll be posting my suggestions on how to fix this soon.  But what do you think?  Is it a problem that a 4-0 team can miss out on the semis?  Are the unequal schedules an issue?  Or everyone knows the rules going in so it is what it is?

Update: See my suggestions on how to avoid this happening again.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 4 of USTA League Nationals is finally over, several 7pm matches finally just finished up shortly after 10pm.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men have six 2-0 teams and only two of those play each other, Hawaii and Middle States, so five could finish 2-0.  But the updated simulation says that isn't likely, just 2%.  The teams most likely to advance are Southern, Middle States, Florida, and NorCal with SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest lurking, but if Hawaii can pull the upset, they'll be right there.

The 4.0 women have five 2-0 teams and the simulation says no chance of all five staying unblemished, and only a 1% chance of four doing so.  We are likely to have a big tie at 3-1 with Texas, Southern, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic most likely to advance, but SoCal and New England will be right there.

Moving on to the 40 & Over division, the 3.0 men have five 2-0 teams and none of them play each other so all five getting to 4-0 is possible, and the updated simulation says the chances are a very doable 34%!  Those teams would be NorCal, Middle States, Southern, Texas, and PNW and all five have a 61% chance or better to make the semis.  Something has to give, and it may be the tie-breakers used.  And with this being 40 & Over with 4 courts, we could be deciding winners on tight tie-breakers to boot.

The 3.0 women have five 2-0 teams but no chance of them all remaining that way, in fact just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams, so we'll have a tie at 3-1 in all likelihood.  The simulation says the teams most likely to advance are SoCal, Texas, PNW, and NorCal with Caribbean and Missouri Valley lurking.

On to the first 55 & Over events, the 6.0 men have just four 4-0 teams and the simulation says even just three is likely, so a 3-1 tie-breaker is in the offing.  Right now, NorCal, Eastern, and Southern are favorites, the last spot a very tight race between Missouri Valley, SoCal, and Intermountain.

The 6.0 women have six 2-0 teams and the simulation says a 5% chance of five them remaining so.  SoCal, NorCal, Missouri Valley, and Northern are the favorites, Midwest the most likely to break up the party.

The 8.0 men also have six 2-0 teams, and while five could finish 4-0, the chances are less than 1%.  Southern, SoCal, and New England are favorites, Florida, Midwest, and Texas vying for the last spot.

The 8.0 women have just four 2-0 teams and it is unlikely they remain all perfect (4% chance) with Florida, Intermountain, Midwest, and Texas most likely to advance.

Good luck to all the teams on Saturday!

Week 4 team/player shenanigans from USTA League Nationals

Getting to Nationals is hard, particularly if you follow the rules.  To get there you need players at the very top of your level, and frankly a number of them that are on their way to a bump up, and even then you may run into teams that have formed their teams a little more successfully.

One would like to think there is a limit to what you'd see at Nationals, but competition makes people do interesting things and sometimes things are taken what most would consider to be too far.  I like to write about some of the scenarios I see when doing my analysis and simulations of Nationals, and folks will share with me some interesting cases too that I look into and sometimes write about.

With that said, here is a sample of a few from this weekend.  I hinted at a few in this week's simulations, but more detail is shared here.

This is by no means a comprehensive accounting of every suspect player or team, nor is it intended to accuse all of them of cheating in some way.  It is merely observations of what is at a minimum interesting situations that have occured.

First up is a team with a lot of self-rates.  Players that self-rate are not necessarily wrong or bad, but it is something that we've seen abused from time to time.  Many self-rated players remain the same level at year-end and some are even bumped down, but those that get bumped up, especially if they fill a team at Nationals, make you go hmmm.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women's team from Texas has small roster of just 10, and 9 of those players are self-rated!  Again, that isn't necessarily bad, but the fact they won Sectionals and as I write this won their first match at Nationals 4-1, one might think they had at least a few players that should have been 4.5s from the start.

The Southern team in the 18 & Over 4.0 men's event has a player who was a 4.5 in the past then didn't play, and then it appears self-rated as a 4.5 but got an appeal down to 4.0 granted.  What has he done?  He went 12-1 through Sectionals, the one loss a huge outlier to say the least, and he probably barely avoided a DQ.  As I write this, he is 1-0 at Nationals probably accruing another strike (but it doesn't matter at Nationals).  Was this perhaps an inappropriate appeal down granted?

The 18 & Over 4.0 men's team from Texas has a player that isn't eligible because they were DQ'd and promoted to 4.5 mid-year, but they were a 2022 year-end 4.0C, so how did that happen?  It appears the player was a 5.0C in the past, then didn't play so had to self-rate.  Instead of self-rating under their existing account, they created a new one and self-rated as a 4.0!  They played in 2022 going 3-0 to start, perhaps on their way to a 4.5 year-end rating, then suddenly couldn't win going 0-4 to close the year, all lopsided scores, leading to the 4.0C.  Apparently someone figured this out at 40 & Over Sectionals and the USTA DQ'd him to 4.5 and merged the accounts.

Yes, Southern and Texas have the highest Shenanigans Scores for the 4.0 men's event.

How might some of these shenanigans, whether deliberate or innocent, be addressed?  See my lengthy write-up of suggestions on how to address grossly out of level teams at Nationals.  Several of the items discussed there likely would have addressed the scenarios above.

Now, one can always argue that someone has to be the best at a level, and people will complain about whoever that happens to be, and that if you eliminate them, it then just leaves someone else for everyone to complain about.  That may be true, and is the shortcoming of arbitrary level based play, but I also think some actions that are taken to try to be the best at a level do go too far and should be cracked down on.

What interesting scenarios have you seen at this year's Nationals?

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 6.0 Men

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 6.0 men.

Teams: 16 (no Hawaii)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 16%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.21 / 2.89

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.12 / 3.01

Favorites: Midwest, Missouri Valley, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Middle States, Northern, PNW, Southern

The range of strong to weak is pretty big, so three favorites and just five contenders.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and as you might expect, 55+ isn't too bad.  New England leads at 4 / 0.50 with four self-rates, SoCal and Caribbean also in the 0.4s.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.