With the Adult Nationals (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) complete, I thought I'd take a look at how often each of the sections make the semis.
I'll probably end up slicing this data by gender and division, but to start we'll just look at the total across both genders and all three divisions over the past three years (2021-2023).
We see that Southern and SoCal are well ahead of the rest with 41 and 35 appearances respectively, but Midwest, Florida, and Texas make a good showing each with 25 or more semi-final appearances.
All of the sections do show up, although 2022 was the only one of the three years were every section wasn't represented with Southwest missing out.
In the above, i used 2021 thru 2023 as that is post-COVID. If we look at the three years pre-COVID it is similar, but not the same.
We see Southern still leads with nearly the same total, but Texas and Florida on close behind, SoCal drops down to mid-pack and PNW moves up some.
Still, there is a clear trend of the same handful of Sections consistently making the semis more than the rest, and Southern has been at the top throughout this period.
What do you think? Is this expected? Southern is by far the largest section and teams have to go through more playoffs that most other areas to get to Nationals, are they more battle tested?
Or do warm weather sections have an advantage in that players can more easily play year-round and continue to improve or be sharp come Nationals?
Should the USTA do something to give the smaller sections a better chance at making the semis more regularly?
I think its a combo of weather & court availability that makes those areas more likely to make it. Even thinking of SoCal specifically you can get players that improve dramatically in a matter of 6 months-1 year bc of the amt of matches/practice they can play and they seem to love tennis in this section. There is also a larger pick of player levels too
ReplyDeleteThose areas have a larger population higher level players for ppl to meet and improve with. I kind of hold the belief that getting better isn't about you really but more of whose team you're on.
ReplyDeleteI’d like to see a bar chart where you standardize by the size of the Section (I guess active players, or number of teams)
ReplyDeleteAsk and you shall receive https://computerratings.blogspot.com/2023/06/a-preliminary-look-at-some-usta-league_22.html
DeleteIf one section has 2 or 3 times (or 10 times) as many players as another section, it stands to reason the bigger section will have a similar advantage in players at (or above) the top of their level. A larger pool makes it easier to collect players who are at the top of their level and create a super-team.
ReplyDeleteI think this is accurate, but it isn't at the section level but instead the area level. You need a large number of players in a given area for a team to form that pulls from the best available of that larger population. Southern is 9 states and that mere fact is going to make their size larger than every other section, but it is the large playing population in many of their areas that allows "super teams" to form.
DeleteRelated to the weather factor, there is definitely something to be said for indoor vs. outdoor tennis. I learned to play tennis while living in the Pacific Northwest (living in Texas now) and the vast majority of all tennis facilities are indoors there. One can still play as often as they like (maybe more than ‘warm weather’ sections because rain won’t get your playing session cancelled). However, indoor players have never had to deal with the wind, sun, or other elements in a tennis match. Most indoor PNW players hate playing outside. So I’d say the fact that nationals are outdoors really puts those traditional indoor players at a disadvantage. Seems a large section combined with outdoor comfort provides a solid recipe for national success.
ReplyDeleteExcellent point, but interestingly PNW has done reasonably well at Nationals and had a very good run for several years a few years ago.
DeleteAm from Georgia and in our 4.0 league player levels are at 4.0, /8.0, my understanding in California and other areas you can have a 4.5 player + a 3.5 player, as long as their overall is 8.0. If true, this definitely makes a significant advantage. Either change the rules for consistency or this will continue.
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