2023 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 4 of USTA League Nationals is finally over, several 7pm matches finally just finished up shortly after 10pm.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men have six 2-0 teams and only two of those play each other, Hawaii and Middle States, so five could finish 2-0.  But the updated simulation says that isn't likely, just 2%.  The teams most likely to advance are Southern, Middle States, Florida, and NorCal with SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest lurking, but if Hawaii can pull the upset, they'll be right there.

The 4.0 women have five 2-0 teams and the simulation says no chance of all five staying unblemished, and only a 1% chance of four doing so.  We are likely to have a big tie at 3-1 with Texas, Southern, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic most likely to advance, but SoCal and New England will be right there.

Moving on to the 40 & Over division, the 3.0 men have five 2-0 teams and none of them play each other so all five getting to 4-0 is possible, and the updated simulation says the chances are a very doable 34%!  Those teams would be NorCal, Middle States, Southern, Texas, and PNW and all five have a 61% chance or better to make the semis.  Something has to give, and it may be the tie-breakers used.  And with this being 40 & Over with 4 courts, we could be deciding winners on tight tie-breakers to boot.

The 3.0 women have five 2-0 teams but no chance of them all remaining that way, in fact just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams, so we'll have a tie at 3-1 in all likelihood.  The simulation says the teams most likely to advance are SoCal, Texas, PNW, and NorCal with Caribbean and Missouri Valley lurking.

On to the first 55 & Over events, the 6.0 men have just four 4-0 teams and the simulation says even just three is likely, so a 3-1 tie-breaker is in the offing.  Right now, NorCal, Eastern, and Southern are favorites, the last spot a very tight race between Missouri Valley, SoCal, and Intermountain.

The 6.0 women have six 2-0 teams and the simulation says a 5% chance of five them remaining so.  SoCal, NorCal, Missouri Valley, and Northern are the favorites, Midwest the most likely to break up the party.

The 8.0 men also have six 2-0 teams, and while five could finish 4-0, the chances are less than 1%.  Southern, SoCal, and New England are favorites, Florida, Midwest, and Texas vying for the last spot.

The 8.0 women have just four 2-0 teams and it is unlikely they remain all perfect (4% chance) with Florida, Intermountain, Midwest, and Texas most likely to advance.

Good luck to all the teams on Saturday!