An undefeated team does not advance at SoCal 18 & Over Sectionals

A couple weeks ago I wrote about the Southern Cal 18 & Over Sectionals and some scenarios where the use of the un-flighted round-robin format was liable to cause some issues.  Specifically, the use of it with too many teams and/or not enough matches can lead to more teams being undefeated than there are to advance to the semis/final.

I had focused on the 3.5 women, where going into the last match it was possible for six teams to be undefeated and only four would advance.  But the USTA was bailed out by two of the teams losing so it was just four undefeated teams.

What I failed to highlight sufficiently was the 4.5 women where there were only 10 teams, but for this flight they only played three matches and just the top-2 advanced.  My simulation said there was an 18% chance of three undefeated teams, and indeed it did happen.

Here were the standings:

• SD Peninsula TC - 3-0 / 12-3
• SD Barnes TC - 3-0 / 11-4
• SFV Let's Play - 3-0 / 10-5

Note that the team that finished third did, by my ratings, have a tougher schedule than the first place team.  So SFV goes to Sectionals and doesn't lose a match, playing a reasonably hard schedule, and doesn't get to advance.  Meanwhile, the team that finished second had the easiest schedule.

This doesn't seem terribly fair.  What do you think?