Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 55+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 55 & over division?

This is the next in the series of "It's only April but let's handicap Nationals already!" posts and previews.

To do this handicapping, I use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the men's 55 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.  Note that in 55+, it is a combined league but I'm still showing averages of individuals.

Men 6.0

Pacific Northwest / Southern Oregon - 3.00
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 2.91
Pacific Northwest / Southern Oregon - 2.88
Pacific Northwest / Seattle - 2.87
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 2.85

PNW Sectionals should be something!

Men 7.0

Southern California / Coachella Valley - 3.61
Texas / North Houston - 3.52
Southwest / Southern Arizona - 3.49
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 3.48
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 3.48

Warmer climate teams rear their heads.

Men 8.0

Texas / North Houston - 3.99
Southwest / Southern Arizona - 3.94
Missouri Valley / Kansas - 3.94
Southern California / Coachella Valley - 3.94
Northern / Twin Cities - 3.94

A very tight group.

Men 9.0

Pacific Northwest / Portland - 4.43
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.42
Southwest / Central Arizona - 4.40
Southern / South Carolina / CCTA - 4.40
Texas / Dallas - 4.38

Southern shows up.

What do you think?