Thursday, January 31, 2013

Superbowl Preview - 49ers vs Ravens

Here is a preview of the Superbowl using my computer's ratings.

San Francisco is rated #1 by my computer so they are the pick to win the game on a neutral field.  But let's look deeper.

First, here is the 49ers performance chart.

This shows that in the majority of their games, they have been quite consistent, right around the low 90s with a few games a bit higher and a few a bit lower.  Their losses and tie appear as aberrations but the fact they happened means one could happen again.  To be fair though, the 2 losses in the last 9 games were both on the road and they just had a great road result in their last game.

If there is a "good" and "bad" 49er team, in their wins they averaged 93.1 rating points while in their losses they averaged 73.7.  And if you look at just their last 4 wins they average a slightly higher 93.7.

Here is Baltimore's chart.

They haven't had quite as clear a disparity between good and bad, with some fairly consistent results in their wins in the mid to upper 80s through much of the season, then some poor results in losses, but then have been very strong in the playoffs.  And you might throw out the Bengals game as meaningless so they've really had 4 strong results in a row recently.

If we look at just Baltimore's last 4 wins, they average 95.7.

So, looking at the entirety of the season, my computer would pick the 49ers by 3.  With Vegas having the line originally at 5 and closer to 3.5 or 4 now, that would make the pick the Ravens to cover.

And if you assume the teams are both going to show up with their best games, one could make the argument that the Ravens best is actually a bit better than the 49ers, around 2 points, so that would seem to reinforce the pick of the Ravens plus the points and even give hope to those that are picking the upset.

Here is hoping for an exciting and competitive game.