In a game that could have been the BCS Championship game except for one fateful Saturday, Oregon and K-State face off in the Fiesta Bowl this Thursday night.
Oregon is ranked #2 by my computer with an 11-1 record and a rating of 91.369 against a schedule strength of 70.861. Their performance chart through week 14 can be found below and shows they were highly ranked almost all year, but had a very weak scheduled until late in the season and that is when they had their one loss.
Kansas State is ranked #6 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 87.704 against a schedule strength of 73.604. Their performance chart from week 15 can be found below and shows
they were also highly ranked all year and had a stronger schedule than Oregon, but had a worse loss than Oregon did.
The teams are not separated by 2 degrees at all, and by 3 degrees through Arizona/Oklahoma State and Arkansas State/North Texas.
The spread is Oregon by 8 to 8.5 and the computer agrees but has Oregon by only 3.7 after their rating has dropped with some of the bowl results. So Kansas plus the points is the pick.