Wednesday, January 2, 2013

2013 Sugar Bowl Preview - Florida vs Louisville

On the surface, the Sugar Bowl matchup between Florida and Louisville may look like a slam dunk for the team from the SEC.  Let's take a look at the bowl preview to see if this is indeed the case.

Florida is ranked #3 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 89.798 against a schedule strength of 76.179. Their performance chart from week 14 can be found below and shows they
were quite good all year, particularly mid-season, but did finish a bit down in 4 of their last 5 until they beat FSU.  They did have one of the tougher schedules all year long.



Louisville is ranked #57 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 72.736 against a schedule strength of 66.413.  Yes, you read that right, Louisville's schedule is nearly 10 points lower than Florida's, a key reason they can be 10-2 and only ranked #57.  Their performance chart from week 15 can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, just always around the low to mid 70s, and they did lose 2 of their last 3 games with results in the 50s.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Kentucky whom Louisville beat 32-14 at home and Florida beat 38-0 at home.

The spread has hovered around 13-14 and my computer in a rare occurrence with a line this big says it isn't enough picking Florida by 17.1.

Enjoy!