On the surface, the Sugar Bowl matchup between Florida and Louisville may look like a slam dunk for the team from the SEC. Let's take a look at the bowl preview to see if this is indeed the case.
were quite good all year, particularly mid-season, but did finish a bit down in 4 of their last 5 until they beat FSU. They did have one of the tougher schedules all year long.
Louisville is ranked #57 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 72.736 against a schedule strength of 66.413. Yes, you read that right, Louisville's schedule is nearly 10 points lower than Florida's, a key reason they can be 10-2 and only ranked #57. Their performance chart from week 15 can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, just always around the low to mid 70s, and they did lose 2 of their last 3 games with results in the 50s.
The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Kentucky whom Louisville beat 32-14 at home and Florida beat 38-0 at home.
The spread has hovered around 13-14 and my computer in a rare occurrence with a line this big says it isn't enough picking Florida by 17.1.