Monday, August 31, 2009

2009 NFL Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for the NFL.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no real surprise that Pittsburgh is projected to have the best record at 12-4.  And there is an 18.6% chance they finish 13-3.  And if you are wondering about an undefeated season, the computer gives that a 0.5% chance.  It is a bit of a surprise that the best record from the NFC is only 10-6 and that is for Philly and the Giants.

Detroit should be glad that they (and no other team) are projected to be winless.  In fact Detroit is projected to have 3 wins.  This is indicative of the NFL's scheduling giving Detroit an easier schedule.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Pittsburgh12-423.118.620.5
Baltimore11-522.320.917.5
Tennessee10-620.920.715.9
Philadelphia10-620.720.216.2
Indianapolis10-621.119.317.6
NY Giants10-620.718.118.2
Minnesota9-720.820.815.7
San Diego9-720.620.316.0
Arizona9-720.020.015.5
New England9-720.119.016.6
Atlanta9-720.216.619.0
Green Bay9-720.416.019.9
Carolina9-719.815.719.4
Chicago9-720.215.520.1
New Orleans8-820.019.515.9
Dallas8-819.919.216.1
Houston8-820.419.116.8
Washington8-820.916.220.4
NY Jets8-819.815.819.3
Tampa Bay8-819.715.819.1
Miami8-819.915.719.6
San Francisco7-921.419.118.0
Seattle7-920.516.120.0
Cincinnati6-1021.320.316.7
Jacksonville6-1021.120.016.8
Cleveland6-1020.620.016.0
Oakland6-1020.919.517.0
Buffalo6-1020.619.416.7
Denver6-1021.118.518.3
St Louis5-1121.518.119.3
Kansas City5-1122.017.920.3
Detroit3-1324.522.617.8