2009 College Football Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for college football.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no surprise that Florida is given the best chance to be undefeated, but it is a bit of a surprise that they are the only team.  There are 6 teams projected to have 1 loss and 4 of those have a greater than 20% of doing 1 game better so it is likely that one of them might.  And there is a 30% chance that Florida loses a game so that isn't a slam dunk.

And on the opposite side of things, no team is presently projected to go winless.  Washington should appreciate that!

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Florida	12-0	70.0	0.0	25.8
Boise St	12-1	41.3	27.5	23.5
Penn State	11-1	40.8	35.8	18.5
Southern Cal	11-1	38.9	22.9	26.5
Oklahoma	11-1	39.3	21.7	27.3
Alabama	11-1	40.3	19.0	28.5
Texas	11-1	36.3	13.1	33.3
TCU	10-2	32.4	32.2	16.8
Utah	10-2	37.4	31.5	17.9
Mississippi	10-2	32.3	29.5	18.9
Ohio State	10-2	39.6	21.4	25.9
Ball St	10-2	27.8	15.7	27.4
Rutgers	9-3	28.3	23.1	21.5
Texas Tech	9-3	30.8	20.8	24.9
West Virginia	9-3	28.1	20.4	23.6
Missouri	9-3	28.3	20.3	23.8
Georgia	9-3	29.9	17.9	26.9
Iowa	9-3	29.7	17.9	26.9
Oregon	9-3	28.2	17.8	26.1
Pittsburgh	9-3	26.8	17.6	25.0
Oregon St	8-4	29.2	28.0	17.4
Troy	8-4	28.4	26.8	18.2
Oklahoma St	8-4	29.0	26.4	18.8
Northwestern	8-4	31.4	25.5	20.9
Michigan St	8-4	27.0	24.8	18.7
Buffalo	8-4	27.1	24.6	18.9
California	8-4	27.5	24.4	19.4
Virginia Tech	8-4	26.0	23.8	18.8
Cincinnati	8-4	29.5	23.3	21.9
North Carolina	8-4	26.6	23.1	20.0
Arizona	8-4	30.3	22.8	23.0
Tulsa	8-4	27.6	19.6	24.0
Nebraska	8-4	29.3	18.9	26.1
Florida St	8-4	26.4	18.2	24.3
Western Michigan	8-4	25.9	17.5	24.5
Brigham Young	8-4	27.0	17.4	25.4
LSU	8-4	35.0	17.3	28.5
Boston College	8-4	25.9	17.1	25.1
Clemson	8-4	24.4	16.7	23.8
Nevada	8-4	26.0	16.1	25.7
Navy	8-5	29.4	25.7	19.3
Houston	7-5	26.0	25.7	16.7
Southern Miss	7-5	25.8	24.0	18.1
Rice	7-5	26.5	23.8	19.0
Kansas	7-5	29.5	23.5	21.7
Wake Forest	7-5	24.8	22.9	18.2
Northern Illinois	7-5	26.2	22.0	20.4
Connecticut	7-5	26.3	21.8	20.8
Air Force	7-5	30.8	21.5	24.5
South Florida	7-5	27.2	21.5	21.9
Wisconsin	7-5	26.1	21.2	21.2
Temple	7-5	27.3	19.9	23.4
Georgia Tech	7-5	24.2	19.8	20.8
Notre Dame	7-5	25.8	18.4	23.6
East Carolina	7-5	26.1	18.3	23.9
Hawaii	7-6	24.8	21.9	19.2
Bowling Green	6-6	26.7	26.3	16.8
Louisiana-Lafayette	6-6	26.0	25.3	17.1
Arkansas St	6-6	26.7	24.9	18.1
Akron	6-6	28.2	24.8	19.3
Tennessee	6-6	30.1	24.7	20.9
Fresno St	6-6	28.6	24.3	20.0
South Carolina	6-6	27.2	23.6	19.7
Florida Atlantic	6-6	27.3	23.0	20.5
Arizona St	6-6	30.5	22.8	23.1
North Carolina St	6-6	26.7	21.7	21.2
Kentucky	6-6	32.1	21.4	25.2
Vanderbilt	6-6	28.6	20.9	23.8
Colorado St	6-6	26.5	18.9	23.8
Miami FL	6-6	27.2	18.7	24.7
Virginia	6-6	24.6	18.6	22.3
Louisiana Tech	6-6	29.2	18.0	26.9
UTEP	6-6	24.7	17.8	23.2
Arkansas	6-6	30.3	17.5	28.0
Stanford	6-6	27.1	17.3	25.9
Marshall	6-6	25.2	16.9	24.6
Kansas St	5-7	26.7	26.6	16.3
Baylor	5-7	29.0	26.0	18.5
Auburn	5-7	27.3	25.3	17.9
Illinois	5-7	28.1	24.2	19.8
Central Michigan	5-7	32.5	24.0	22.5
Maryland	5-7	23.5	23.4	16.1
Duke	5-7	25.7	23.0	18.8
New Mexico	5-7	26.2	22.1	20.4
Florida Int'l	5-7	27.6	21.4	22.4
Purdue	5-7	25.6	21.4	20.5
Middle Tennessee St	5-7	26.3	20.9	21.8
Minnesota	5-7	27.1	20.7	22.6
Louisiana-Monroe	5-7	29.4	20.5	24.7
Colorado	5-7	27.6	20.0	23.6
Utah St	5-7	26.7	18.9	24.1
Memphis	5-7	26.1	17.4	25.2
Ohio U.	5-7	28.1	17.0	27.4
Central Florida	5-7	25.8	16.5	25.8
Michigan	4-8	29.7	29.3	15.5
UCLA	4-8	28.7	24.1	20.2
San Jose St	4-8	29.8	22.4	23.1
San Diego St	4-8	28.0	22.3	21.7
Army	4-8	31.3	21.8	24.4
Louisville	4-8	30.1	21.4	24.3
UNLV	4-8	29.3	21.4	23.7
Kent St	4-8	29.5	21.2	24.2
Alabama-Birmingham	4-8	26.3	20.7	22.0
Texas A&M	4-8	29.7	20.3	25.0
Iowa St	4-8	29.0	19.8	25.2
New Mexico St	4-9	28.3	18.3	26.7
Mississippi St	3-9	30.3	25.9	19.4
Toledo	3-9	27.6	23.8	19.7
SMU	3-9	32.7	20.2	27.4
Indiana	3-9	29.7	18.0	28.6
Eastern Michigan	3-9	27.8	17.6	27.1
Wyoming	3-9	27.9	17.3	27.5
Syracuse	2-10	30.0	28.9	15.6
Tulane	2-10	30.0	25.6	19.5
Washington St	2-10	32.0	25.1	21.5
North Texas	2-10	31.9	23.1	24.0
Western Kentucky	2-10	31.4	22.8	24.1
Idaho	2-10	30.9	19.2	28.6
Washington	2-10	44.1	16.1	31.2
Miami OH	1-11	40.6	25.1	24.5