Monday, August 31, 2009

2009 College Football Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for college football.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no surprise that Florida is given the best chance to be undefeated, but it is a bit of a surprise that they are the only team.  There are 6 teams projected to have 1 loss and 4 of those have a greater than 20% of doing 1 game better so it is likely that one of them might.  And there is a 30% chance that Florida loses a game so that isn't a slam dunk.

And on the opposite side of things, no team is presently projected to go winless.  Washington should appreciate that!

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Florida12-070.00.025.8
Boise St12-141.327.523.5
Penn State11-140.835.818.5
Southern Cal11-138.922.926.5
Oklahoma11-139.321.727.3
Alabama11-140.319.028.5
Texas11-136.313.133.3
TCU10-232.432.216.8
Utah10-237.431.517.9
Mississippi10-232.329.518.9
Ohio State10-239.621.425.9
Ball St10-227.815.727.4
Rutgers9-328.323.121.5
Texas Tech9-330.820.824.9
West Virginia9-328.120.423.6
Missouri9-328.320.323.8
Georgia9-329.917.926.9
Iowa9-329.717.926.9
Oregon9-328.217.826.1
Pittsburgh9-326.817.625.0
Oregon St8-429.228.017.4
Troy8-428.426.818.2
Oklahoma St8-429.026.418.8
Northwestern8-431.425.520.9
Michigan St8-427.024.818.7
Buffalo8-427.124.618.9
California8-427.524.419.4
Virginia Tech8-426.023.818.8
Cincinnati8-429.523.321.9
North Carolina8-426.623.120.0
Arizona8-430.322.823.0
Tulsa8-427.619.624.0
Nebraska8-429.318.926.1
Florida St8-426.418.224.3
Western Michigan8-425.917.524.5
Brigham Young8-427.017.425.4
LSU8-435.017.328.5
Boston College8-425.917.125.1
Clemson8-424.416.723.8
Nevada8-426.016.125.7
Navy8-529.425.719.3
Houston7-526.025.716.7
Southern Miss7-525.824.018.1
Rice7-526.523.819.0
Kansas7-529.523.521.7
Wake Forest7-524.822.918.2
Northern Illinois7-526.222.020.4
Connecticut7-526.321.820.8
Air Force7-530.821.524.5
South Florida7-527.221.521.9
Wisconsin7-526.121.221.2
Temple7-527.319.923.4
Georgia Tech7-524.219.820.8
Notre Dame7-525.818.423.6
East Carolina7-526.118.323.9
Hawaii7-624.821.919.2
Bowling Green6-626.726.316.8
Louisiana-Lafayette6-626.025.317.1
Arkansas St6-626.724.918.1
Akron6-628.224.819.3
Tennessee6-630.124.720.9
Fresno St6-628.624.320.0
South Carolina6-627.223.619.7
Florida Atlantic6-627.323.020.5
Arizona St6-630.522.823.1
North Carolina St6-626.721.721.2
Kentucky6-632.121.425.2
Vanderbilt6-628.620.923.8
Colorado St6-626.518.923.8
Miami FL6-627.218.724.7
Virginia6-624.618.622.3
Louisiana Tech6-629.218.026.9
UTEP6-624.717.823.2
Arkansas6-630.317.528.0
Stanford6-627.117.325.9
Marshall6-625.216.924.6
Kansas St5-726.726.616.3
Baylor5-729.026.018.5
Auburn5-727.325.317.9
Illinois5-728.124.219.8
Central Michigan5-732.524.022.5
Maryland5-723.523.416.1
Duke5-725.723.018.8
New Mexico5-726.222.120.4
Florida Int'l5-727.621.422.4
Purdue5-725.621.420.5
Middle Tennessee St5-726.320.921.8
Minnesota5-727.120.722.6
Louisiana-Monroe5-729.420.524.7
Colorado5-727.620.023.6
Utah St5-726.718.924.1
Memphis5-726.117.425.2
Ohio U.5-728.117.027.4
Central Florida5-725.816.525.8
Michigan4-829.729.315.5
UCLA4-828.724.120.2
San Jose St4-829.822.423.1
San Diego St4-828.022.321.7
Army4-831.321.824.4
Louisville4-830.121.424.3
UNLV4-829.321.423.7
Kent St4-829.521.224.2
Alabama-Birmingham4-826.320.722.0
Texas A&M4-829.720.325.0
Iowa St4-829.019.825.2
New Mexico St4-928.318.326.7
Mississippi St3-930.325.919.4
Toledo3-927.623.819.7
SMU3-932.720.227.4
Indiana3-929.718.028.6
Eastern Michigan3-927.817.627.1
Wyoming3-927.917.327.5
Syracuse2-1030.028.915.6
Tulane2-1030.025.619.5
Washington St2-1032.025.121.5
North Texas2-1031.923.124.0
Western Kentucky2-1031.422.824.1
Idaho2-1030.919.228.6
Washington2-1044.116.131.2
Miami OH1-1140.625.124.5