This is the set of my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs. Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings. Thus, I'm using the top-12 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
Here is the 40 & Over Mixed 9.0 that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL.
With just 14 teams, there is no chance of five teams finishing undefeated, and in fact there is just a 0.2% chance of four teams at 4-0.
The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:
- Northern Cal - 98%
- Southern Cal - 97%
- Texas - 63%
- Missouri Valley - 57%
- Intermountain - 57%
The top-2 teams separate themselves and are the only teams with a most likely record of 4-0. The three other teams plus Southern are expected to finish 3-1 but several 2-2 teams too.
If the teams predicted make the semis, NorCal would be favored over either MoValley or Intermountain and SoCal over Texas, with SoCal the pick in the final
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-12 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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