This is the set of my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs. Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings. Thus, I'm using the top-12 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
Here is the 40 & Over Mixed 6.0 that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL.
There is the full 17 teams and with that, there is a quite high chance of five undefeated teams where one would miss out on the semis. The simulation says a 7% of this and a whopping 37% chance of four undefeated. This event appears to be pretty top heavy.
The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:
- Mid-Atlantic - 99%
- Caribbean - 91%
- Southern - 86%
- Hawaii - 81%
All the above four have a 4-0 record as most likely, but another team, NorCal, has a 40% chance of 4-0 too. A few others with a decent chance to make the semis are Southwest and Northern.
If the teams predicted make the semis, Hawaii would be favored over either Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean over Southern, with Hawaii the pick in the final
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-12 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
No comments:
Post a Comment