Handicapping 2017 USTA League Nationals - 18 & over 5.0+ Men

Nationals for the 2017 USTA League 18 & over division gets started this coming weekend, and it wouldn't feel right to let it pass without a little preview and prediction.

For all my previews, I'll be using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and comparing teams using the top-8 (for 5 court levels) or top-5 (for 3 court levels) averages which gives an idea of who the best teams are, if they play their best players.  Who actually plays and the match-ups a captain is able to get obviously go a long way to determining who will win, but it is still interesting to compare "best" vs "best".  The actual detailed numbers along with full roster averages and by court played averages are available as part of a Flight Report which can still be purchased for any Nationals flight.  Contact me if interested.

First out of the gate are the 5.0+ levels being played at the National Campus in Orlando.  There are 14 teams and three flights, two with five teams and one with four, so the flight winners and one of the second place teams will advance to the semis.

The favorites in the three flights are Northern California, Texas, and Intermountain, all rated very closely.  The wildcard typically goes to the team with the best games won/lost percentage so it really depends on who is in a tough/weak flight, but Florida is the next highest rated team.

Ratings will clearly change as a result of the matches played, but right now, it is a virtual tie amongst the top-4 teams with just 0.03 covering them all, but Texas is the narrow favorite at this point.

Good luck to all!