Sunday, May 19, 2013

USTA Dynamic NTRP Accuracy Part 3

I posted some entries on looking at how accurate my Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings are in predicting matches uses some matches from Northern California Districts.  To dig a little deeper, I took a look at another flight at the same Districts to see how my ratings did at predicting.  Here is the first round of match for the team that won the flight:

  • A 4.76 beat a self-rated 5.0 3-6, 6-1, 1-0 - Self-rated so no prediction
  • An unrated 4.5 beat a 4.56 7-5, 6-4 - No prediction
  • A 4.60/4.32 beat a 4.25/4.12 6-2, 6-4 - Accurate prediction
  • A 4.52/4.57 beat a 3.96/4.37 6-2, 6-1 - Accurate prediction
  • A 4.49/4.47 beat a 4.40/4.36 6-3, 6-4 - Accurate prediction
So 3-0 here.  The first two matches are odd in that the players were self-rated and hadn't played a match all year, and another had a C rating but hadn't played a match all year.  So I can't make a prediction in those.


In the second round:
  • A 4.76 beat a 4.56 4-6, 6-1, 1-0 - Accurate prediction
  • A 4.40 beat a 4.56 6-7, 6-2, 1-0 - Missed
  • A 4.52/4.28 beat a 4.34/4.26 6-7, 6-2, 1-0 - Accurate prediction
  • A 4.56/4.52 beat a 4.35/4.01 6-4, 6-4 - Accurate prediction
  • Last court was a default
So 3-1 here.


In the third round:
  • A 4.78 beat a 4.22 6-1, 6-1 - Accurate prediction
  • This court was a default
  • A 4.57/4.32 beat a 4.33/4.52 6-1, 4-6, 1-0 - Accurate prediction
  • A 4.46/4.36 beat a 4.24/4.14 6-3, 7-5 - Accurate prediction
  • Last court was a default
So 3-0 again, and 9-1 overall.  The very good trend of being a pretty accurate predictor continues.