Now, doing this prediction does require having the actual dynamic rating, and not just the level the players are playing at, so my Estimated Dynamic NTRP is an excellent way to see how well the "predictions" fare. For our sample, I'm going to use some matches played at the Northern California Sectionals going on this weekend. I've done some analysis for one of the teams playing there so have already been looking at the matches in some detail.
In one team match there were the following results:
- A 4.77 beat a 4.40 6-2, 6-0 - Pretty much on target and expected
- A 4.51 beat a 4.45 6-0, 4-6, 1-0 - Ratings predict a close win and it happened
- A 4.57/4.37 beat a 4.67/4.37 7-6, 6-4 - A close match predicted, but went to the lower rated team
- A 4.47/4.52 beat a 4.30/4.04 6-1, 6-1 - Pretty much expected
- A 4.52/4.64 beat a 4.36/4.40 6-3, 7-6 - Also pretty much expected.
So my estimated ratings went 4-1 and the miss wasn't radically off.
Another team match had the following results:
- A 4.81 beat a 4.09 6-3, 6-3 - Expected a worse beating, but still got it right
- A 4.66 beat a 4.55 7-6, 2-6, 1-0 - Got the win right, not quite like would have been predicted though
- A 4.40/4.69 beat a 5.05/4.15 6-3, 1-6, 1-0 - The lower rated team won so a miss but the higher rated team did win more games so the algorithm was right in a way.
- A 4.61/4.43 beat a 4.49/3.99 6-3, 6-7, 1-0 - As predicted
- A 4.64/4.61 beat a 4.51/4.52 3-6, 6-2, 1-0 - As predicted
Again, my ratings went 4-1, the miss actually being "right" on game differential though. Also, matches with that big a gap are a wildcard as if the more even team can find the weaker player, the advantage is nullified.
Overall, 8-2 in predicting matches. I'll take that.
Look for more on the other matches later.