Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Free Schmidt Computer Alamo Bowl Preview

Newsletter Subscribers gets these previews for all the games as part of their subscription, but I'll post a couple of these here for all to see over the next few days.  If you want them all, subscribe!

The Alamo Bowl will take place on 12/29 pitting Oklahoma State against Arizona.

Oklahoma State is ranked #14 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 79.609 against a schedule strength of 68.486.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down in wins and losses, their worst game being against Troy and best game being against Tulsa.  They are 8-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-5-1 picking their games against the spread and 9-3 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=30,110&chtt=14 Oklahoma_St 79.609&chd=t:-1,85.776,61.836,90.284,-1,79.308,72.511,86.072,67.810,83.991,87.958,84.567,81.514,72.466,-1,-1,-1,-1|73.987,75.056,71.876,76.325,76.381,76.133,76.078,78.348,75.645,77.341,79.916,79.669,80.578,79.324,79.138,79.150,79.339,79.609|-1|-1|68.852,50.172,57.570,60.130,60.022,62.967,62.115,63.639,64.607,65.455,66.586,66.402,66.612,67.738,67.710,67.719,68.225,68.486|-1,64.329,61.825,70.897,-1,79.297,50.978,69.391,80.798,70.980,70.034,67.810,60.040,81.455,-1,-1,-1,-1&chxl=0:||WSU|Troy|Tulsa|bye|TAMU|@LaLaf|@TTU|Nebraska|@KanSt|Baylor|@Texas|@Kansas|Okla|bye|bye|bye|bye|1:|30|50|70|90|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,25,1|o,00FF00,0,02,22,1|o,00FF00,0,03,31,1|o,00FF00,0,05,40,1|o,00FF00,0,06,17,1|o,00FF00,0,07,36,1|o,FF0000,0,08,43,1|o,00FF00,0,09,37,1|o,00FF00,0,10,30,1|o,00FF00,0,11,34,1|o,00FF00,0,12,26,1|o,FF0000,0,13,43,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t34,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t43,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t21,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t26,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t26,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t29,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t22,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t26,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t18,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t10,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t15,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t15,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t15,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t15,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t14,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t89,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t83,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t91,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t98,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t76,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t92,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t77,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t64,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t54,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t41,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t39,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|t47,00FFFF,4,12,15,1|t49,00FFFF,4,13,15,1|h,000000,0,0.62,1,1

Arizona is ranked #21 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 76.452 against a schedule strength of 71.898.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were more consistent but had a streak of not bad losses to end the season, their worst game being against The Citadel and best game being against Washington.  They are 4-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-3 picking their games against the spread and 7-4 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=30,110&chtt=21 Arizona 76.452&chd=t:-1,85.571,68.769,79.597,72.001,-1,69.836,81.102,89.889,79.006,69.788,70.255,-1,76.331,73.540,-1,-1,-1|74.827,76.378,79.209,82.618,84.474,85.236,82.199,80.395,81.082,81.272,79.036,76.628,77.508,76.821,76.289,76.319,76.514,76.452|-1|-1|71.635,58.592,57.198,64.799,67.844,67.080,68.622,66.866,66.663,67.188,69.221,68.602,69.787,71.562,71.881,71.841,71.955,71.898|-1,65.132,-1,75.586,73.990,-1,74.825,64.329,71.712,67.994,87.148,76.244,-1,91.478,77.528,-1,-1,-1&chxl=0:||@Toledo|TheCitadel|Iowa|Cal|bye|OrSt|@WSU|Wash|@UCLA|@Stanford|USC|bye|@Oregon|ASU|bye|bye|bye|1:|30|50|70|90|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,35,1|o,00FF00,0,02,6,1|o,00FF00,0,03,39,1|o,00FF00,0,04,38,1|o,FF0000,0,06,43,1|o,00FF00,0,07,34,1|o,00FF00,0,08,35,1|o,00FF00,0,09,38,1|o,FF0000,0,10,29,1|o,FF0000,0,11,43,1|o,FF0000,0,13,25,1|o,FF0000,0,14,43,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t19,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t16,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t11,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t13,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t16,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t12,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t11,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t20,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t18,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t21,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t21,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t21,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t21,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t21,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t66,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t88,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t57,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t34,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t40,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t33,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t44,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t42,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t33,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t17,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t18,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|t12,00FFFF,4,12,15,1|t9,00FFFF,4,13,15,1|h,000000,0,0.58,1,1

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through WSU and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Kansas_St-->UCLA-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Nebraska-->Washington-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Texas-->UCLA-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Arizona_St-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->California-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Oregon-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Oregon_St-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Southern_Cal-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Stanford-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->UCLA-->Arizona
3 Oklahoma_St-->Washington_St-->Washington-->Arizona

Against WSU, Oklahoma State thumped them at home and Arizona beat them 24-7 on the road.

The spread is Oklahoma State by as many as 6.5 but now more 4.5 to 5.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by just 2.8.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Arizona               +6.5 over  *          Oklahoma State  2.8  3.7 0.616 0.648

Enjoy!

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