Tuesday, December 7, 2010

2010 Week 13 NFL Projections; Patriots and Falcons #1 seeds

With four games to play, the playoff picture is pretty clear regarding who will make it, but positioning is still important.

This week had a number of important games affecting the seeding and Atlanta and New England now lead the projected records at 13-3 with Pittsburgh close behind at 12-4.  Baltimore and the Jets have an uphill road now with both projected to get the AFC wildcards at 11-5 and New Orleans a wildcard in the NFC at 11-5 as well.

Chicago and Green Bay will go down to the wire it appears as they are projected to both be 11-5 which Chicago holding the tie-breaker today, but if Green Bay wins the finale they'd have split their two games.  My computer gives Chicago the slightly better chance of 11-5 and significantly better chance of 12-4 so they get the nod.

In the NFC East, the Eagles are projected to finish a game ahead of the Giants and in the AFC West Kansas City should be a game ahead of the Chargers.  And right now, in the bringing up the rear NFC West, the Rams have the edge over the Seahawks with a better chance of 8-8 or 9-7, but with both teams having at 27%+ chance of 7-9 there could still be a losing team making the playoffs.


TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Atlanta13-342.842.313.5
New England13-338.917.231.6
Pittsburgh12-446.530.120.9
Baltimore11-542.920.729.1
New Orleans11-542.222.626.3
NY Jets11-538.734.115.7
Chicago11-537.719.930.1
Green Bay11-537.313.034.6
Philadelphia11-535.612.635.2
Kansas City10-638.028.921.1
NY Giants10-637.921.428.6
Tampa Bay9-739.327.522.4
Jacksonville9-738.726.823.1
San Diego9-738.216.632.1
Miami8-843.724.723.5
St Louis8-838.922.927.1
Oakland8-838.422.727.3
Indianapolis8-837.330.020.0
Seattle8-835.315.234.8
Tennessee7-938.322.427.6
Cleveland7-937.827.322.7
Houston7-937.621.628.4
Minnesota7-937.219.031.0
Washington7-936.617.932.1
San Francisco6-1041.021.228.3
Dallas6-1039.525.924.0
Denver5-1137.320.429.6
Arizona4-1235.634.413.5
Cincinnati3-1345.819.732.0
Buffalo3-1342.725.724.6
Detroit3-1336.534.313.6
Carolina2-1453.09.836.6