2009 NFL Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for the NFL.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no real surprise that Pittsburgh is projected to have the best record at 12-4.  And there is an 18.6% chance they finish 13-3.  And if you are wondering about an undefeated season, the computer gives that a 0.5% chance.  It is a bit of a surprise that the best record from the NFC is only 10-6 and that is for Philly and the Giants.

Detroit should be glad that they (and no other team) are projected to be winless.  In fact Detroit is projected to have 3 wins.  This is indicative of the NFL's scheduling giving Detroit an easier schedule.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Pittsburgh	12-4	23.1	18.6	20.5
Baltimore	11-5	22.3	20.9	17.5
Tennessee	10-6	20.9	20.7	15.9
Philadelphia	10-6	20.7	20.2	16.2
Indianapolis	10-6	21.1	19.3	17.6
NY Giants	10-6	20.7	18.1	18.2
Minnesota	9-7	20.8	20.8	15.7
San Diego	9-7	20.6	20.3	16.0
Arizona	9-7	20.0	20.0	15.5
New England	9-7	20.1	19.0	16.6
Atlanta	9-7	20.2	16.6	19.0
Green Bay	9-7	20.4	16.0	19.9
Carolina	9-7	19.8	15.7	19.4
Chicago	9-7	20.2	15.5	20.1
New Orleans	8-8	20.0	19.5	15.9
Dallas	8-8	19.9	19.2	16.1
Houston	8-8	20.4	19.1	16.8
Washington	8-8	20.9	16.2	20.4
NY Jets	8-8	19.8	15.8	19.3
Tampa Bay	8-8	19.7	15.8	19.1
Miami	8-8	19.9	15.7	19.6
San Francisco	7-9	21.4	19.1	18.0
Seattle	7-9	20.5	16.1	20.0
Cincinnati	6-10	21.3	20.3	16.7
Jacksonville	6-10	21.1	20.0	16.8
Cleveland	6-10	20.6	20.0	16.0
Oakland	6-10	20.9	19.5	17.0
Buffalo	6-10	20.6	19.4	16.7
Denver	6-10	21.1	18.5	18.3
St Louis	5-11	21.5	18.1	19.3
Kansas City	5-11	22.0	17.9	20.3
Detroit	3-13	24.5	22.6	17.8

2009 College Football Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for college football.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no surprise that Florida is given the best chance to be undefeated, but it is a bit of a surprise that they are the only team.  There are 6 teams projected to have 1 loss and 4 of those have a greater than 20% of doing 1 game better so it is likely that one of them might.  And there is a 30% chance that Florida loses a game so that isn't a slam dunk.

And on the opposite side of things, no team is presently projected to go winless.  Washington should appreciate that!

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Florida	12-0	70.0	0.0	25.8
Boise St	12-1	41.3	27.5	23.5
Penn State	11-1	40.8	35.8	18.5
Southern Cal	11-1	38.9	22.9	26.5
Oklahoma	11-1	39.3	21.7	27.3
Alabama	11-1	40.3	19.0	28.5
Texas	11-1	36.3	13.1	33.3
TCU	10-2	32.4	32.2	16.8
Utah	10-2	37.4	31.5	17.9
Mississippi	10-2	32.3	29.5	18.9
Ohio State	10-2	39.6	21.4	25.9
Ball St	10-2	27.8	15.7	27.4
Rutgers	9-3	28.3	23.1	21.5
Texas Tech	9-3	30.8	20.8	24.9
West Virginia	9-3	28.1	20.4	23.6
Missouri	9-3	28.3	20.3	23.8
Georgia	9-3	29.9	17.9	26.9
Iowa	9-3	29.7	17.9	26.9
Oregon	9-3	28.2	17.8	26.1
Pittsburgh	9-3	26.8	17.6	25.0
Oregon St	8-4	29.2	28.0	17.4
Troy	8-4	28.4	26.8	18.2
Oklahoma St	8-4	29.0	26.4	18.8
Northwestern	8-4	31.4	25.5	20.9
Michigan St	8-4	27.0	24.8	18.7
Buffalo	8-4	27.1	24.6	18.9
California	8-4	27.5	24.4	19.4
Virginia Tech	8-4	26.0	23.8	18.8
Cincinnati	8-4	29.5	23.3	21.9
North Carolina	8-4	26.6	23.1	20.0
Arizona	8-4	30.3	22.8	23.0
Tulsa	8-4	27.6	19.6	24.0
Nebraska	8-4	29.3	18.9	26.1
Florida St	8-4	26.4	18.2	24.3
Western Michigan	8-4	25.9	17.5	24.5
Brigham Young	8-4	27.0	17.4	25.4
LSU	8-4	35.0	17.3	28.5
Boston College	8-4	25.9	17.1	25.1
Clemson	8-4	24.4	16.7	23.8
Nevada	8-4	26.0	16.1	25.7
Navy	8-5	29.4	25.7	19.3
Houston	7-5	26.0	25.7	16.7
Southern Miss	7-5	25.8	24.0	18.1
Rice	7-5	26.5	23.8	19.0
Kansas	7-5	29.5	23.5	21.7
Wake Forest	7-5	24.8	22.9	18.2
Northern Illinois	7-5	26.2	22.0	20.4
Connecticut	7-5	26.3	21.8	20.8
Air Force	7-5	30.8	21.5	24.5
South Florida	7-5	27.2	21.5	21.9
Wisconsin	7-5	26.1	21.2	21.2
Temple	7-5	27.3	19.9	23.4
Georgia Tech	7-5	24.2	19.8	20.8
Notre Dame	7-5	25.8	18.4	23.6
East Carolina	7-5	26.1	18.3	23.9
Hawaii	7-6	24.8	21.9	19.2
Bowling Green	6-6	26.7	26.3	16.8
Louisiana-Lafayette	6-6	26.0	25.3	17.1
Arkansas St	6-6	26.7	24.9	18.1
Akron	6-6	28.2	24.8	19.3
Tennessee	6-6	30.1	24.7	20.9
Fresno St	6-6	28.6	24.3	20.0
South Carolina	6-6	27.2	23.6	19.7
Florida Atlantic	6-6	27.3	23.0	20.5
Arizona St	6-6	30.5	22.8	23.1
North Carolina St	6-6	26.7	21.7	21.2
Kentucky	6-6	32.1	21.4	25.2
Vanderbilt	6-6	28.6	20.9	23.8
Colorado St	6-6	26.5	18.9	23.8
Miami FL	6-6	27.2	18.7	24.7
Virginia	6-6	24.6	18.6	22.3
Louisiana Tech	6-6	29.2	18.0	26.9
UTEP	6-6	24.7	17.8	23.2
Arkansas	6-6	30.3	17.5	28.0
Stanford	6-6	27.1	17.3	25.9
Marshall	6-6	25.2	16.9	24.6
Kansas St	5-7	26.7	26.6	16.3
Baylor	5-7	29.0	26.0	18.5
Auburn	5-7	27.3	25.3	17.9
Illinois	5-7	28.1	24.2	19.8
Central Michigan	5-7	32.5	24.0	22.5
Maryland	5-7	23.5	23.4	16.1
Duke	5-7	25.7	23.0	18.8
New Mexico	5-7	26.2	22.1	20.4
Florida Int'l	5-7	27.6	21.4	22.4
Purdue	5-7	25.6	21.4	20.5
Middle Tennessee St	5-7	26.3	20.9	21.8
Minnesota	5-7	27.1	20.7	22.6
Louisiana-Monroe	5-7	29.4	20.5	24.7
Colorado	5-7	27.6	20.0	23.6
Utah St	5-7	26.7	18.9	24.1
Memphis	5-7	26.1	17.4	25.2
Ohio U.	5-7	28.1	17.0	27.4
Central Florida	5-7	25.8	16.5	25.8
Michigan	4-8	29.7	29.3	15.5
UCLA	4-8	28.7	24.1	20.2
San Jose St	4-8	29.8	22.4	23.1
San Diego St	4-8	28.0	22.3	21.7
Army	4-8	31.3	21.8	24.4
Louisville	4-8	30.1	21.4	24.3
UNLV	4-8	29.3	21.4	23.7
Kent St	4-8	29.5	21.2	24.2
Alabama-Birmingham	4-8	26.3	20.7	22.0
Texas A&M	4-8	29.7	20.3	25.0
Iowa St	4-8	29.0	19.8	25.2
New Mexico St	4-9	28.3	18.3	26.7
Mississippi St	3-9	30.3	25.9	19.4
Toledo	3-9	27.6	23.8	19.7
SMU	3-9	32.7	20.2	27.4
Indiana	3-9	29.7	18.0	28.6
Eastern Michigan	3-9	27.8	17.6	27.1
Wyoming	3-9	27.9	17.3	27.5
Syracuse	2-10	30.0	28.9	15.6
Tulane	2-10	30.0	25.6	19.5
Washington St	2-10	32.0	25.1	21.5
North Texas	2-10	31.9	23.1	24.0
Western Kentucky	2-10	31.4	22.8	24.1
Idaho	2-10	30.9	19.2	28.6
Washington	2-10	44.1	16.1	31.2
Miami OH	1-11	40.6	25.1	24.5

Final 2008 NFL Ratings

Before we start the 2009 NFL season, let's take a look back at 2008.

Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl last year but my ratings insist that Baltimore was the best team due to a strong finish to the season and their loss to Pittsburgh in the playoffs being on the road. It doesn't pass my gut check but the computer's performance against the spread (see below) is hard to argue with.

For those interested in such things, my computer was a very good 152-107-5 against the spread in all the games I had spreads for.  Those games matching my best pick criteria were an outstanding 38-18-3.  And while only 9 games matched my "lock" criteria last year, those games did go 7-2.

Projections for 2009 based on these ratings coming soon.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule
1	Baltimore	88.752	13-6-0	83.337
2	Pittsburgh	88.686	15-4-0	83.027
3	Philadelphia	87.558	11-7-1	82.823
4	Tennessee	86.798	13-4-0	81.314
5	NY Giants	86.759	12-5-0	82.292
6	Indianapolis	86.135	12-5-0	82.296
7	New England	85.018	11-5-0	80.165
8	San Diego	84.204	9-9-0	81.310
9	Carolina	84.121	12-5-0	81.130
10	Atlanta	83.894	11-6-0	80.937
11	Arizona	83.514	12-8-0	81.506
12	Minnesota	83.324	10-7-0	81.711
13	Dallas	82.902	9-7-0	82.385
14	New Orleans	82.778	8-8-0	80.842
15	Tampa Bay	82.006	9-7-0	80.783
16	Miami	81.971	11-6-0	80.575
17	Chicago	81.782	9-7-0	81.117
18	Green Bay	81.480	6-10-0	81.114
19	Houston	81.357	8-8-0	81.964
20	NY Jets	80.845	9-7-0	80.034
21	Washington	80.705	8-8-0	82.076
22	San Francisco	78.649	7-9-0	80.330
23	Buffalo	78.481	7-9-0	79.769
24	Jacksonville	77.907	5-11-0	82.170
25	Cincinnati	77.586	4-11-1	83.457
26	Cleveland	77.511	4-12-0	83.489
27	Oakland	77.291	5-11-0	81.305
28	Denver	77.174	8-8-0	80.401
29	Seattle	76.968	4-12-0	81.124
30	Kansas City	74.450	2-14-0	81.302
31	St Louis	72.968	2-14-0	81.761
32	Detroit	71.369	0-16-0	82.345

Final 2008 College Football Ratings

Before we start the 2009 college football season, let's take a look back at 2008.

Florida won the national championship and my computer ultimately rated them #1, but there was plenty of fodder for those that felt USC or Texas deserved a shot in the championship game.  In fact, before the bowl games Oklahoma was my computer's clear #1 with Texas #2.  By the time of the BCS Championship game Florida was a close #2 and proved themselves the better team in the game.

For those interested in such things, my computer was 332-271-10 against the spread in all the games I had spreads for.  Those games matching my best pick criteria were an even better 51-25-1.

The ratings below will serve as the starting point for this coming season and for the sake of not having over 700 lines of teams, I've listed just the division I-A teams.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule
1	Florida	96.620	13-1	75.935
2	Oklahoma	94.802	12-2	76.260
3	Southern Cal	93.011	12-1	74.821
4	Texas	92.284	12-1	76.186
5	Penn State	88.831	11-2	71.759
6	Texas Tech	86.171	11-2	74.839
7	Alabama	85.982	12-2	73.488
8	Utah	85.714	13-0	71.052
9	TCU	85.566	11-2	70.557
10	Boise St	85.296	12-1	67.043
11	Ohio State	84.752	10-3	73.539
12	Mississippi	83.909	9-4	74.412
13	Oregon	83.839	10-3	74.133
14	Oklahoma St	82.892	9-4	73.682
15	Missouri	82.629	10-4	73.631
16	Georgia	81.998	10-3	75.391
17	Florida St	81.966	9-4	72.291
18	Iowa	81.018	9-4	71.045
19	Virginia Tech	80.692	10-4	73.800
20	Oregon St	80.498	9-4	75.851
21	North Carolina	80.311	8-5	74.552
22	California	80.285	9-4	73.659
23	Arizona	80.232	8-5	70.608
24	Nebraska	80.191	9-4	73.860
25	Clemson	79.533	7-6	73.581
26	Kansas	78.737	8-5	73.824
27	Georgia Tech	78.482	9-4	73.041
28	Boston College	78.432	9-5	73.519
29	LSU	78.166	8-5	73.001
30	West Virginia	78.097	9-4	71.934
31	Pittsburgh	77.971	9-4	73.802
32	Wake Forest	77.872	8-5	76.005
33	Rutgers	77.711	8-5	69.954
34	Michigan St	77.393	9-4	73.301
35	South Carolina	76.862	7-6	76.301
36	Brigham Young	76.779	10-3	69.479
37	Miami FL	76.638	7-6	75.450
38	Tulsa	76.401	11-3	65.488
39	Cincinnati	76.315	11-3	71.261
40	Connecticut	75.610	8-5	72.109
41	Northwestern	75.374	9-4	70.477
42	North Carolina St	74.970	6-7	75.656
43	Virginia	74.910	5-7	77.459
44	Vanderbilt	74.809	7-6	75.307
45	Maryland	74.723	8-5	73.437
46	Baylor	74.436	4-8	75.847
47	Rice	74.386	10-3	67.841
48	South Florida	74.356	8-5	70.339
49	Ball St	73.978	12-2	63.590
50	Notre Dame	73.914	7-6	72.127
51	Navy	73.486	8-5	69.642
52	Houston	73.316	8-5	67.531
53	Tennessee	73.108	5-7	73.299
54	Wisconsin	73.101	7-6	72.574
55	Arizona St	73.054	5-7	72.744
56	Duke	72.769	4-8	76.088
57	Troy	72.686	8-5	65.148
58	Arkansas	72.400	5-7	76.517
59	Nevada	72.312	7-6	68.549
60	Air Force	72.303	8-5	69.335
61	Auburn	72.233	5-7	72.924
62	Stanford	72.219	5-7	75.319
63	East Carolina	72.194	9-5	70.620
64	Southern Miss	71.748	7-6	68.492
65	Kentucky	71.371	7-6	70.880
66	Illinois	70.546	5-7	71.554
67	Minnesota	70.305	7-6	70.283
68	Buffalo	70.123	8-6	68.308
69	Colorado	69.541	5-7	75.375
70	Kansas St	69.434	5-7	71.767
71	Purdue	68.874	4-8	72.917
72	Western Michigan	68.835	9-4	65.216
73	Colorado St	68.814	7-6	70.812
74	Bowling Green	68.697	6-6	66.909
75	Fresno St	68.596	7-6	68.133
76	Temple	67.960	5-7	67.948
77	New Mexico	67.883	4-8	71.432
78	Hawaii	67.760	7-7	70.075
79	Louisiana Tech	67.687	8-5	66.005
80	UCLA	67.152	4-8	74.301
81	UTEP	67.033	5-7	69.363
82	Mississippi St	66.939	4-8	72.572
83	Northern Illinois	66.860	6-7	64.166
84	Central Michigan	66.839	8-5	66.182
85	Texas A&M	66.537	4-8	75.003
86	Michigan	66.311	3-9	73.223
87	Louisville	66.285	5-7	68.127
88	Louisiana-Lafayette	65.703	6-6	65.584
89	Akron	65.701	5-7	67.028
90	Arkansas St	65.681	6-6	63.834
91	Marshall	65.474	4-8	69.757
92	Florida Atlantic	65.096	7-6	67.304
93	Memphis	65.002	6-7	66.043
94	Iowa St	64.881	2-10	72.442
95	UNLV	64.737	5-7	70.619
96	San Jose St	64.288	6-6	67.005
97	Central Florida	64.248	4-8	68.651
98	Utah St	64.223	3-9	70.668
99	Ohio U.	63.596	4-8	66.704
100	Syracuse	63.320	3-9	73.546
101	Florida Int'l	63.226	5-7	66.287
102	Alabama-Birmingham	63.055	4-8	66.933
103	Middle Tennessee St	62.072	5-7	65.369
104	Wyoming	61.712	4-8	69.996
105	Army	61.391	3-9	68.017
106	Louisiana-Monroe	61.019	4-8	64.288
107	Kent St	60.585	4-8	65.669
108	Indiana	60.476	3-9	69.312
109	Toledo	60.382	3-9	66.971
110	San Diego St	60.190	2-10	70.217
111	Eastern Michigan	58.882	3-9	66.220
112	Washington	58.374	0-12	77.283
113	New Mexico St	58.200	3-9	66.079
114	Washington St	57.614	2-11	74.407
115	SMU	57.402	1-11	70.816
116	Tulane	56.357	2-10	69.612
117	Miami OH	55.493	2-10	66.734
118	Western Kentucky	53.809	2-10	65.709
119	Idaho	52.807	2-10	66.955
120	North Texas	51.885	1-11	67.807

My New Computer Ratings Blog

As we get close to the start of the 2009 football season, it is time to get my computer ratings primed and going again, and this year I've decided to create this blog to use to publish the ratings and share some insights from the ratings each week.

To start, I'll post the final College and NFL ratings from last year, and for historical purposes may get prior years posted too. Using last years final ratings I'll also provide projections for season ending records for the upcoming year. Of course, since most teams, college and pro, change significantly, these will probably not be that accurate, but it gives a decent basis to start from and you can apply if you think a team has improved or not. The key thing in my projections is that they do take each teams individual schedule into account.

Then each week of the season, I'll post the ratings for the week along with updated projections and predictions for the upcoming week. As I do use the final ratings from last season as the starting point for this season, the first few weeks are a bit iffy on the projections and predictions, but I've found that is a much better starting point than treating each team as equal to start the year. And by mid-season what each team started the season at is pretty much full dampened out. But I'll also give an explanation for why the ratings do what they do.

In the past I've offered a service where I provide some additional details on trends against the spread that folks can use for "entertainment purposes" and I'll get that going again if there is interest.

I welcome comments and feedback so leave comments and I'll read them all.