This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.
I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly. There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer. Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.
Why do these simulations you ask? The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents. This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used. The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen. Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.
Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few. Let me know which you'd like to see!
Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words. Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order. The strengths are based on played averages. Contact me if you want to learn more.
On to the projections from the simulation, first up, the 18 & Over 4.0 men.
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.16 / 3.96
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.11 / 4.03
Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Southern
The simulation likes the top team a lot due to an easy schedule but still just 38% chance of 4-0. But then there is a group of four teams with a 33% to 60% chance of making the semis, and five more with a better than 12% chance. Overall five teams have a most likely record of 3-1 and then eight are at 2-2, so a competitive event it appears so court records and the tie-breakers will be important.
What do you think?
Eastern and Middle states share some top players and the shared players are playing for eastern, does the proejctions account for that?
ReplyDeleteThis doesn't, as I have no way of knowing for sure who will play for who. So your are right one of them, it sounds like Middle States may be weaker, although they were already only in the have a chance category.
DeletePlease do 3.5 women! I'm dying...it's our first time at Nationals (Southern here!)
ReplyDelete18+ 3.5 women? I'll try to get it done before Friday.
DeleteDone! https://computerratings.blogspot.com/2025/10/simulating-2025-usta-league-nationals_8.html
DeleteCan you do 40+ 3.5 men? I’d love to see!
ReplyDeleteProbably when we get closer
DeleteWow! That’s crazy because Southwest is currently in 4th at 2-1 through 3 matches, just beat Mid-Atlantic, and their only match they lost was three 3rd-set breakers. Maybe you should run those numbers again?
ReplyDeleteThat was a nice win, winning those two TBs was huge and gives them a shot, but they have to play Eastern next and they will likely be 2-1 also so both teams still in it. And there are already other 2-1/9-6 teams, so just winning 3-2 in the 4th match may not be enough.
DeleteSo do they have a chance? Sure, but even with the win the simulation says just 16% chance.
Maybe you should’ve listed Southwest as having a chance in your original projections, nerd. Maybe take some accountability for overlooking good teams and do better.
DeleteUmmm, Southwest finished 2-2 and in 11th, so they didn't really contend. Not sure how that qualifies to call me out. But the simulation said their most likely record was 1-3 (43%) but they did have a 28% chance of 2-2 so they did hit that.
DeleteHey Kevin it’s your 21-19 tiebreaker buddy (I know we won but it’s was still an awesome match). I also lost a 13-11 breaker on the show court after both my partner and I having overheads to win our match! Hahaha Sun and wind was pretty crazy here! Let’s hope to see a h other next yr for 40+!! Cheers man!
DeleteEvery team we interacted with at nationals this weekend was such a pleasure, with the exception of southwest.
DeletePrior to the match we were warned by another team about them and a specifically Salvatore DeMuro (bad calling and poor sportsmanship). One of them went on court and just start ripping every ball. Salvatore was just dropshoting everything in the warmup and very early on made multiple bad calls.
The commenter sounds like someone from that team