As I understand it, rain did arrive in the Phoenix area causing some delays in the morning and perhaps briefly in the afternoon, but the move to short sets actually allowed some events to get ahead of schedule to guard against more delays today when more rain is forecast. I heard of some grumbling that they could have gotten everything in under the normal format, but we'll see if getting ahead was a good idea based on today's weather.
On the courts themselves, the 2.5 women saw the top-5 teams in the simulation remain the top-5 forecast teams after day one, but with the ordered juggled somewhat. Caribbean, Northern, and MO Valley should be locks, and be joined by Southern, or maybe Midwest or upstart PNW in the semis. There is a 13% chance of four 4-0 teams.
The 3.5 men saw favorites NorCal, Texas, and Florida struggle, but NorCal still could make the semis with SoCal, PNW, and Midwest being minor surprises. Look out for New England and Middle States too. The simulation called for a very competitive event and that appears to be happening with virtually no chance of four 4-0 teams, just a 5% chance of three, and a likely 5-way tie for the last spot.
The 3.5 women has the simulation's top-4 picks all still in the top-6 projected finishers, but they are not locks with a full 7 teams having between a 22% and 42% chance of taking the last two semi-finalist spots. Look for Southern and Texas to be there, but then, who knows, but PNW and Southwest perhaps have the inside track. Also very competitive though with no chance of four 4-0 teams and just an 8% chance of three.
Unaffected by whether were the 4.0 events in San Diego where the 4.0 men has the top-4 favorites all still in the top-5, but a few already played each other and more do today. Still, look for Texas, Florida, Eastern, and MO Valley to move on with Mid-Atlantic and NorCal lurking. But look for perhaps three 3-1 teams and tie-breakers to be important.
The 4.0 women has the simulation's top-3 favorites nearly locked in for the semis in the same order, and contender Florida looking good for a spot as well. Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, MO Valley, and Texas are lurking though. There is a 5% chance of four 4-0 teams and 32% chance of three.
Back in Arizona, the 5.0 men had projected mid-pack Southwest leap to the favorite category joining favorites PNW, NorCal, and Intermountain as most likely to advance. Mid-Atlantic and Midwest will try to have a say though. There is likely a bit tie at 3-1 for the last spot, probably 5 teams but a 26% chance of six of them being tied.
Last, the 5.0 women has four teams running away with it with PNW, SoCal, Midwest, and Intermountain basically locked in to the semis already, due in part to everyone but Florida having played three matches already. Just Mid-Atlantic has a small shot at playing spoiler. There may be a tie at 3-1 for the last spot, but Mid-Atlantic is behind on the courts tie-breaker and even with a sweep could be left out.
I hope the rain stays away today, good luck everyone!
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