This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.
I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly. There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer. Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.
Why do these simulations you ask? The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents. This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used. The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen. Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.
Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few. Let me know which you'd like to see!
Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words. Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order. The strengths are based on played averages. Contact me if you want to learn more.
On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 men.
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.68 / 3.39
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.65 / 3.49
Favorites: Caribbean, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Northern, PNW
I list just three favorites, but two of the contenders are a fraction away from being favorites, and the other two are nipping at their heels. So it feels like 7 teams vying for 4 spots. All 7 have a better than 11% chance of going 4-0, so it should be very competitive.
There are some ways for there to be five 4-0 teams but it seems pretty slim.
What do you think?
Not often enough, it seems.
ReplyDeleteI think you were a touch off with your predictions.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Southern and Texas are both in the semis already, so those picks weren't bad. Middle States is in with a win which would give me three of the four semi-finalists, which is pretty good I'd say.
DeleteWho are you looking at that you consider a miss?
So the semifinalists are Southern, Texas, Middle States, and Midwest. Two of those were favorites and one was a contender, so pretty good there.
DeleteWhere did Midwest come from. Tennis record has them low.
ReplyDeleteA lot of players on the MW team were 4.0 in 24 and got bumped down. Limited match reps and weaker opponents kept their tr numbers low. Very solid team (clearly).
ReplyDelete