Analyzing 2025 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Bump rates by level and gender

The 2025 year-end NTRP ratings have been published and that means we get to take a look at how ratings have changed.

In this post I'll take a look at bump rates by level and gender.

First, here are the overall bump rates by level for 2025.

2025 Bump Rates by Level

For comparison, here was last year.

2024 Bump Rates by Level

The rates are not dramatically different, but 2025 bump ups are perhaps a little lower with about 12.5% of 3.0s being bumped up compared to nearly 15% in 2024.  At the 3.5 level also slightly lower at 7% versus 7.5%, but 4.0s are right about the same and 4.5s perhaps a little higher.

But doing it by gender is more interesting, here are the women in 2025.

2025 Bump Rates by Level - Women

And for comparison, 2024.

2024 Bump Rates by Level - Women

Similar, at 3.5 and below the bump up percentage is down a bit, but at 4.0 and 4.5, perhaps slightly higher.

And then the men.

2025 Bump Rates by Level - Men

And 2024.

2024 Bump Rates by Level - Men

Again, similar here.

So at the lower levels, while bump rates remain higher there than at higher levels, the bump rates are trending down slightly from last year.

2025 USTA NTRP Year End Ratings Are Out!

The year-end NTRP ratings were published last night, a little earlier than expected at around 9pm EST, and with that players are rabidly checking their rating and determining what that means for what teams they can join and how captains can form their teams.

I'll try to post some analysis shortly, but my quick observation is that there seems to have been fewer bumps up and down than normal.  I haven't run across many surprising bump ups, but quite a few surprises where players perhaps should have been bumped up and weren't.

Stay tuned for more.

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.63 / 3.37
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.58 / 3.48
Favorites: Florida, Intermountain, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Middle States, Midwest, New England, NorCal, SoCal

Have a chance: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, Southwest

Just three teams are favorites, but there are a bunch that are contenders for the last spot and more that have a chance.  I have just four teams without a realistic chance of making the semis.  When looking at most-likely record, 5th place is 2-2 so it will be really competitive to see who steps out of the 10 teams projected to finish 2-2 and try to get a semi-final spot.  Or could we have our first 2-2 semi-finalist?

Given how competitive it may be, there is little chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 24%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.68 / 3.39
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.65 / 3.49
Favorites: Caribbean, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Northern, PNW

Have a chance: SoCal

I list just three favorites, but two of the contenders are a fraction away from being favorites, and the other two are nipping at their heels.  So it feels like 7 teams vying for 4 spots.  All 7 have a better than 11% chance of going 4-0, so it should be very competitive.

There are some ways for there to be five 4-0 teams but it seems pretty slim.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 3.0 in San Diego, and 40 & Over 4.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 37%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 14%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1.4%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 83% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.10 / 3.86
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.91
Favorites: Florida, Middle States, Midwest, Texas
Contenders: Missouri Valley, Southern

Have a chance: NorCal

This event appears pretty top heavy with four pretty clear favorites and thus a decent chance of four 4-0 teams.  The overall favorite to make the semis isn't the strongest team, but benefits from the easiest schedule.  There are a few contenders that could spoil it and there is a 1.4% chance of five 4-0 teams.

What do you think?

2025 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 2 Recap

Day two is in the books, and despite some continued delays due to rain in Arizona, semi-finalists are set, and even played in some cases.  Here is a recap.

The 2.5 women saw NorCal, Caribbean, and MO Valley all finish 4-0 and were joined by Southern at 3-1.  The simulation nailed it with those four being the top-4 favorites, although it called for just one to have a most likely record of 4-0.

The 3.5 men had Midwest and SoCal finish 4-0, and were joined by PNW and Florida at 3-1.  Midwest was a surprise being just a contender in the simulation, while SoCal and PNW were contenders, and just Florida was a favorite.

The 3.5 women had two 4-0 teams in Texas and Midwest, and then a 3-way tie at 3-1 / 12-8 for two spots with Mid-Atlantic and Florida taking it over New England on fewer sets lost.  Texas and Florida were favorites, but the other two were just in the have a chance category in the simulation.

The 4.0 men was really competitive with several of the top teams playing each other, the end result was Florida at 4-0, then a whopping seven (!) teams at 3-1 with Texas, Eastern, and Intermountain being the ones to advance.  Note that Texas played Florida and Intermountain, and Florida played Eastern, so there is a good chance of a rematch in the final.  The simulation had all four of these teams as favorites and also predicted a bunch of 3-1 teams.

The 4.0 women had three 4-0 teams, those being NorCal, Southern, and Florida, and then SoCal was the best of three 3-1 teams.  The simulation had NorCal, Southern, and SoCal as the top-3 favorites, and Florida was a contender as the 6th pick, so not bad.

Then the 5.0 men had two 4-0 teams in Southwest and Midwest, then PNW and Intermountain joined them at 3-1.  Midwest was a big surprise, the only team not highlighted in the simulation, but PNW and Intermountain were favorites and Southwest just a "has a chance" team.  And this event already played their semis with Southwest and Midwest advancing with 2-1 wins.

Last, the 5.0 women also had two 4-0 teams in Intermountain and Midwest, and SoCal and PNW were the only 3-1 teams so they joined them in the semis.  All four teams were favorites in the simulation so nailed this one too.  They also played their semis with PNW and Midwest advancing.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

2025 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 1 Recap

Day 2 of week 1 of the 2025 USTA League Nationals is about to start, so with that a recap of day 1 is in order.

As I understand it, rain did arrive in the Phoenix area causing some delays in the morning and perhaps briefly in the afternoon, but the move to short sets actually allowed some events to get ahead of schedule to guard against more delays today when more rain is forecast.  I heard of some grumbling that they could have gotten everything in under the normal format, but we'll see if getting ahead was a good idea based on today's weather.

On the courts themselves, the 2.5 women saw the top-5 teams in the simulation remain the top-5 forecast teams after day one, but with the ordered juggled somewhat.  Caribbean, Northern, and MO Valley should be locks, and be joined by Southern, or maybe Midwest or upstart PNW in the semis.  There is a 13% chance of four 4-0 teams.

The 3.5 men saw favorites NorCal, Texas, and Florida struggle, but NorCal still could make the semis with SoCal, PNW, and Midwest being minor surprises.  Look out for New England and Middle States too.  The simulation called for a very competitive event and that appears to be happening with virtually no chance of four 4-0 teams, just a 5% chance of three, and a likely 5-way tie for the last spot.

The 3.5 women has the simulation's top-4 picks all still in the top-6 projected finishers, but they are not locks with a full 7 teams having between a 22% and 42% chance of taking the last two semi-finalist spots.  Look for Southern and Texas to be there, but then, who knows, but PNW and Southwest perhaps have the inside track.  Also very competitive though with no chance of four 4-0 teams and just an 8% chance of three.

Unaffected by whether were the 4.0 events in San Diego where the 4.0 men has the top-4 favorites all still in the top-5, but a few already played each other and more do today.  Still, look for Texas, Florida, Eastern, and MO Valley to move on with Mid-Atlantic and NorCal lurking.  But look for perhaps three 3-1 teams and tie-breakers to be important.

The 4.0 women has the simulation's top-3 favorites nearly locked in for the semis in the same order, and contender Florida looking good for a spot as well.  Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, MO Valley, and Texas are lurking though.  There is a 5% chance of four 4-0 teams and 32% chance of three.

Back in Arizona, the 5.0 men had projected mid-pack Southwest leap to the favorite category joining favorites PNW, NorCal, and Intermountain as most likely to advance.  Mid-Atlantic and Midwest will try to have a say though.  There is likely a bit tie at 3-1 for the last spot, probably 5 teams but a 26% chance of six of them being tied.

Last, the 5.0 women has four teams running away with it with PNW, SoCal, Midwest, and Intermountain basically locked in to the semis already, due in part to everyone but Florida having played three matches already.  Just Mid-Atlantic has a small shot at playing spoiler.  There may be a tie at 3-1 for the last spot, but Mid-Atlantic is behind on the courts tie-breaker and even with a sweep could be left out.

I hope the rain stays away today, good luck everyone!

This weekend's USTA League Nationals in Arizona may be using short sets

I wrote a few days ago about the potential rain in the Phoenix area, and it appears the forecast is bad enough that the USTA is going to proactively start the event using an alternate shorter format, I'm guessing short sets starting each set at 2-2, and play no-ad.

The forecast for Friday and Saturday calls for thunderstorms and a chance of flash flooding, so hopefully with the short format matches can get played relatively on schedule and there will be minimal delays.

I think it is the right move by the USTA to do this proactively and get as ahead of it as possible as trying to fit matches in using an even shorter format later would be worse.

I'm guessing both Surprise and Scottsdale will go to this format which means the 18 & Over 2.5, 3.5, and 5.0 events will be affected.  The 4.0 events are in San Diego and the forecast appears near perfect there.

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, I already did the 18 & Over 4.0 men, 3.5 women, and 4.0 women, next up, the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 10%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.83 / 3.51
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.73 / 3.61
Favorites: Florida, NorCal, Texas
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Middle States, Northern, PNW, SoCal, Southwest

Have a chance: Midwest, Southern

The simulation likes three teams above the others, and one of those a near lock to make the semis, just that one having a most likely record of 4-0 (62% chance).  And in a very rare occurrence, the last semi-finalist is projected to be 2-2 with 10 teams having that record.  Now, it is likely that with so many teams having a most likely 2-2 record, one steps up and finishes 3-1, but clearly this is a close competition for that last spot.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, I already did the 18 & Over 4.0 men and 3.5 women, next up, the 18 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.18 / 3.91
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.07 / 3.95
Favorites: Missouri Valley, NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Hawaii, Intermountain, Midwest

Have a chance: Mid-Atlantic

The simulation likes three teams above the others, all having a most likely record of 4-0, but a fourth still just qualifies as a favorite.  Three of the contenders do have a better than 10% chance of going 4-0 as well, so there could be a good competition for the last spot with four teams having a most likely record of 3-1 for that spot.

There is a decent chance of four 4-0 teams but just a slim chance of five of them, and a minuscule but possible chance of six. 

What do you think?

Yes, there could be six undefeated teams for 18 & Over 3.5 Women too!

I just did my simulation for the 18 & Over 3.5 women, and like I did for the 18 & Over 4.0 men, I noticed that there is a chance of six 4-0 teams!  In fact, there are two different ways it could happen!

Here are the two diagrams showing how it could happen.

One can clearly see two different scenarios where there are six teams, and different ones in each scenario, that all don't play each other and so they could each go 4-0.  Now, it is pretty unlikely it happens, but still it is possible.

I'll try to keep an eye out for this for other events and post the visualization for them too.

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, I already did the 18 & Over 4.0 men, next up, the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.7%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.70 / 3.43
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.63 / 3.49
Favorites: Florida, SoCal, Southern, Southwest, Texas
Contenders: Intermountain, Missouri Valley

Have a chance: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, PNW

The simulation likes five teams for four spots, all having a better than 40% chance of making the semis, and as a result not a lot of contenders, but a big group of teams that have a chance.  The five favorites all have a most likely record of 3-1, but one has a 41% chance or 4-0 and three more have better than a 20% chance.

The tie-breakers will be important as teams 3, 4, and 5 are all projected to have 12-8 individual court records, so one good team is going to be left out of the semis.

What do you think?

There could be six undefeated teams at USTA League 18 & Over 4.0 men's Nationals!

In looking at the details of the projections from my simulation for the 18 & Over 4.0 men this morning, I noticed that it said there was a chance of six 4-0 teams!  This has happened before, but I thought I'd take a deeper look this time.

I had posted a visual diagram of the schedule earlier, but hadn't taken a close look to see what was possible, but the simulation highlighted it.  Here is the same diagram with the potential 4-0 teams in this scenario highlighted in green.

One can clearly see there are six teams that all don't play each other and so they could each go 4-0.  Now, it is pretty unlikely it happens as Hawaii and Northern are not even in my list of teams that have a chance to make the semis let alone go 4-0.

I'll try to keep an eye out for this for other events and post the visualization for them too.

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, first up, the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.16 / 3.96
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.11 / 4.03
Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Southern

Have a chance: Middle States, Midwest, SoCal

The simulation likes the top team a lot due to an easy schedule but still just 38% chance of 4-0.  But then there is a group of four teams with a 33% to 60% chance of making the semis, and five more with a better than 12% chance.  Overall five teams have a most likely record of 3-1 and then eight are at 2-2, so a competitive event it appears so court records and the tie-breakers will be important.

What do you think?

Will it rain on the first weekend of 2025 USTA League Nationals?

2025 USTA League Nationals is starting in a few days, and with that we need to do our weather checks.

Several events are in the greater Phoenix area (Surprise and Scottsdale), and the current forecast calls for showers and a heavy thunderstorm on both Friday and Saturday.  That sounds ominous, but I'd think the courts should dry quickly so hopefully they get all the matches in without having to alter the format.

The other site this weekend is San Diego, and there is a chance of a shower Saturday morning, otherwise sunny and pleasant, so I'd think everything will be fine there.

Stay away rain!

2025 USTA League Nationals begin in three days

USTA League Nationals season for 2025 is upon us with a full seven events will being played this coming weekend, October 10-12.  All of Nationals will occur over the next five weeks, which is one more than in 2024, but still two fewer than in 2023.

Scottsdale, Surprise, and San Diego will all be hosting events this weekend with Orlando joining the fun the last two weekends of Nationals.

I will try to get some of my previews/predictions done each weekend, but with this fairly compressed format and 6-7 events a weekend, I may not get to all of them.  Please leave a comment to vote for which events you'd like to see previews for.

Good luck to all the teams competing the next five weekends!

What does a USTA League Nationals Unflighted Round-Robin Schedule Look? - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals are just weeks away now and match schedules have been published, so I've started looking at schedules to see what they look like and what teams have stronger/weaker schedules.

Note, if you need a refresher on how Nationals works, read this.

The schedule is important because of the format used where all the teams are in one "flight" where everyone plays four random opponents.  As you can probably imagine, this opens the door for wildly uneven schedules.  My simulations factor in actual schedules, and one way to look at this visually is with a diagram that shows who plays who.

A popular event that many onlookers care about is the 18 & Over 4.0 men's event.  Here is what that schedule looks like.

You can see that there are some groups of teams that are closely connected, but others that are very sparsely connected.

For example, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Hawaii all play two to three of each other.  And similar for Missouri Valley, Middle States, SoCal, and Caribbean.

If you look at sections that are traditional powers, it appear Texas has a tough schedule having to play SoCal, Intermountain, Florida, and PNW.  Middle States has to play Florida, NorCal, SoCal, and Missouri Valley, so theirs is not easy either.  And Florida has Eastern, Middle States, Texas, and New England.

Southern perhaps has an easier schedule with Hawaii, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and PNW, but I'll be honest, this case of this schedules looks as balanced as you might hope.

What do you think?  Is this way of doing schedules fair?  Who got a hard or easy schedule?

And what other events/levels do you want to see the diagram for?

2025 USTA League Nationals match schedules are out!

For those of you that are going to Nationals or like to follow what happens there, today is a big day as we march towards the events actually starting.  The match schedules are available!

The last Sectionals for 18 & Over and 40 & Over wrapped up this past weekend, so all the teams are falling into place now and presumably what sections are sending teams to each event is now known, so match schedules can be created.

As a reminder, the event schedules were published awhile back that show when and where each event is.

The main Nationals page has links for each event, and from those pages are links to the match schedules.  But for your convenience, here are those links for each event.

18 & Over

2.5 Women - A full 17 teams

3.0 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

3.5 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.0 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.5 Men and Women - A full 1716 men's teams, Caribbean missing, and 16 women's teams, Northern missing

5.0 Men and Women - 16 men's teams, Caribbean missing, and just 12 women's teams

40 & Over

3.0 Men and Women - 16 men's teams, Northern missing, and a full 17 women's teams

3.5 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.0 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.5 Men and Women - A full 17 men's teams, and 16 women's teams, Caribbean missing

One must always have the caveat that these are subject to change, either to correct errors, or if a section ends up not sending a team the schedule will have to be juggled.  But we have a starting point at least now and captains can begin scouting opponents and planning strategy.

If you are a captain or player headed to Nationals and are looking for information and assistance scouting and planning, contact me or browse this blog as I typically offer a bunch of information about Nationals leading up to the event based on my experience going a few times and helping many teams navigate Nationals every year.

Enjoy!

Update: Some schedules were updated and changes made above.

Yep, it happened again, yet another undefeated team sent home at Southern California Sectionals

I'm growing tired of having to write these blog posts, but until SoCal USTA fixes their format and it stops happening, I'll keep pointing it out.

What is "it" you ask?

Southern California chooses to use the unflighted round-robin format for their Sectionals, at least for some divisions and levels, but does so with too many teams and not enough matches, leading to the possibility that more than four teams go undefeated and one (or more) of them get left out of making the semi-finals.

It has happened before in SoCal, just two months ago at 40 & Over Sectionals, and last year as well.  And this weekend it happened for the 18 & Over 3.5 women with 18 teams in the flight and each team playing just three matches.  That is a recipe for disaster and sure enough, there are five 3-0 teams.

I feel bad for SD WD LLW 3.5 Mtn View/ Jackie Saenz as they won their three matches, but it wasn't enough.  Now, they won each one 3-2 and so had the least impressive individual court record and that is the first tie-breaker in this case, and hopefully they knew going in winning 3-2 three times might not be enough, but that is still tough to swallow.

SoCal players, why do you stand for this?  Are you giving your section leaders your thoughts?  Or are you ok with it as is?

Note: I took a look and it appears that there was a greater than 6% chance there would be six 3-0 teams, and over a 23% chance of five 3-0 teams.

Are some districts/states not sending teams to USTA League Southern Sectionals?

It is that time of year when Sectionals are being played across the country.  Sectionals is where teams from the various districts in a section all come together to play to see who will win and represent the section at Nationals.

Not all districts send teams to Sectionals at every gender and level as some areas/district just don't have critical mass for enough teams at every gender and level.  But the main levels are generally represented by each district.

In the Southern section there are 11 districts and these align with 11 states, those being Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.  Thus a full flight would be 11 teams representing each state.

In taking a look at some flights, it appears not all states are represented, and not just at the genders/levels on the fringes.

At the 18 & Over Southern Sectionals, ignoring the 2.5 and 5.0 levels where it is common for some states to be absent:

• 3.0 women - Only 6 teams listed, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina are missing
• 3.0 men - Only 8 teams listed, North Carolina is missing
• 3.5 women - Only 8 teams listed, Georgia is missing
• 3.5 men - Only 6 teams listed, Alabama, Kentucky, and South Carolina are missing
• 4.0 women - All states listed
• 4.0 men - Only 6 teams listed, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee are missing
• 4.5 women - Only 8 teams listed, Alabama missing
• 4.5 men - Only 8 teams listed, Mississippi missing

That is only one gender/level where all 9 states are there!  And three where three teams are missing!  So this isn't just a state missing here or there.  And some states are missing that are considered hot beds of tennis.

Note that the 3.0 and 4.0 levels are taking place this weekend so those teams are certainly set, while the 3.5 and 4.5 levels are next weekend, and I believe the deadline for entry has past so I doubt any teams are going to be added, but perhaps TennisLink is just not up to date and more teams will be there for 3.5 and 4.5.

The 40 & Over Southern Sectionals is also going on this weekend and next weekend:

• 3.0 women - 10 teams are listed!  They are sending two from Mississippi, not sure why
• 3.0 men - Only 6 teams listed, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina missing
• 3.5 women - 10 teams are listed!  They are sending two from Alabama
• 3.5 men - Only 8 teams are listed, Alabama missing
• 4.0 women - 10 teams are listed!  Georgia gets two at this level
• 4.0 men - All states are listed
• 4.5 women - Only 6 teams are listed, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina missing
• 4.5 men - Only 8 teams are listed, Kentucky is missing

Interestingly, this is not quite as bad as 18 & Over with four flights having full representation, and for some reason the Section has elected to have wildcards and 10 teams for the 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0 women.

One would actually think there are more teams and players at 18 & Over compared to 40 & Over, so there would be less chance of states skipping out.

Note that at 40 & Over the 3.0 and 4.0 levels are next weekend while the 3.5 and 4.5 are this weekend.  So they are staggered from 18 & Over so if players were on teams going to both, they would be able to.

So why are some states not sending teams?  And why is 18 & Over less represented than 40 & Over?

I can think of a few reasons, so I'll throw them out here, but I'd love to hear from folks in Southern if they know what is going on.

Going to Sectionals is a sizable commitment from a time and money perspective and perhaps some aren't willing to take it on.  This can especially be the case in Southern where depending on where the event is held, there can be a bunch of travel.

This year 18 & Over is being held in Mobile, AL on the back to back weekends while 40 & Over is in Rome, GA.  There is no perfect location for all states, but these are reasonably central locations and have been used on a regular basis so aren't new.  And the states skipping some events are not far from these locations at all, so it can't be just this reason.

Players could be on teams qualified for both 18 & Over and 40 & Over and are just picking one to attend.  I haven't done analysis of this, but I don't think the schedule is significantly different from prior years so if this were the reason, we would expect to have seen it in the past.

Teams could feel they have no shot at winning, perhaps due to knowledge or history of super teams from some states, and so don't want to go knowing they are likely to lose.  While this is possible, history tells us that super teams have come from nearly all of the states in Southern including some of those skipping events this year.

Are there other reasons?  Those from Southern, what is the inside scoop on what is going on?

But even if any of the above reasons are true and the States winner from some states opts out, why wouldn't the state send the runner up from States so they are represented?  I imagine in some cases if the winner opts out late and the members of the runner up have already made other plans, the runner up may also opt out.  But it still seems odd for so many teams to be missing.

FWIW, last year there were some events with just 8 teams, but only one with less than that and that was the 18 & Over 4.5 women, compared to a full five with just six teams this year.  So this year definitely has more teams missing.

What do you think?  Why is this happening this year?

2026 USTA League Regulations - Changes to appeal rules

The USTA has published the 2026 USTA League Regulations and while there are not a lot of changes, there is an important one for players that advance to Sectionals or Nationals.

For as along as I remember, it has been well known, and the regulations have documented, that players that play at Nationals are not eligible to appeal their year-end rating.  Here is the specific language from the 2025 USTA League Regulations.

2.07 CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS.

A championship player’s computer rating achieved as a result of play in the Adult 18 & Over and Adult 40 & Over National Championships may not be appealed down after the Championship Year it is received except as in Reg. 2.05D Medical Appeals and Reg. 2.05E Age Related Appeals of Players 60 or Over.

Well, this has changed for 2026 to also include players that play at Sectionals.  Here is the new language with the key change bolded.

2.07 CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS.

A championship player’s computer rating generated as a result of play in the Adult 18 & Over and Adult 40 & Over Sectional or National Championships may not be appealed down after the Championship Year it is received except as in Reg. 2.05D Medical Appeals and Reg. 2.05E Age Related Appeals of Players 60 or Over.

This will significantly increase the number of players that won't be eligible to try to do an auto-appeal down when their year-end rating is published.

The last few years there have been over 400 teams and nearly 5,000 players on rosters and over 3,000 players that have played at 18 & Over and 40 & Over Nationals.  In 2024 I have just over 3,300 players playing at Nationals.

If we expand this to include Sectionals too, the numbers go way up.  Each of the 17 Sectionals will typically have five to nine teams at Sectionals for every gender and level and that is reflected in there being well over 3,000 teams, over 32,000 players rostered, and around 22,000 players playing at Sectionals or Nationals.  Specifically in 2024 I have just over 21,500 players playing at Sectionals or Nationals.

So with this rule change, there will be about 6.5 times more players not eligible to appeal their ratings.  Based  on how many players got computer ratings at the end of 2024, about 9.1% of players getting new C ratings won't be eligible to appeal, up from 1.4% of players under the prior rule.

I don't know this is the case, but I'm guessing this rule change was put in place to address complaints that the same players always go to Sectionals, and they are enabled by being able to appeal down and stay the same level.  But how many players took advantage of the old rule and actually appealed down?

It appears that for the last few years, of those players that were on a Sectionals roster but not Nationals, a little under 700 were able to appeal.  Of those that played, it is under 500 that were able to appeal.  And in 2024 there were around 17.6K that played at Sectionals and not Nationals, so just 2.4% were actually able to appeal.

So on the surface, it seems like a significant rule change, but when you look at the numbers, in practice it affects a very small number and percentage.

All that said, I do like the rule and since it doesn't affect that many players, it isn't that significant a change.

What do you think?

Note: The initial writing of this blog had slightly inflated numbers for the players at Sectionals and has been corrected above.

Unflighted Round-Robin Format - USTA Southern gets it!

I've written several times over the years how the Southern California section has deployed the unflighted round-robin format in less than ideal ways where undefeated teams can be left out of advancing to the semis/final, and it has happened, most recently just a month ago.

Well, I happened to be looking at how the Southern section uses the format and am pleased to acknowledge that Southern does it right!

The challenge SoCal has is they have too many teams, and too few matches.  Some of SoCal's flights have 18 teams, and then each one only plays three matches, which is a recipe for disaster.  SoCal isn't alone as Florida has deployed the format where two teams got left out, and even at Nationals where there are fewer teams (no more than 17), National makes sure the teams play four matches each which mitigates the risk of having too many undefeated teams, although a fifth has happened a couple times.

Southern on the other hand has no more than 9 teams, and even with half the teams SoCal may have they get each team four matches!  That accomplishes several things:

• Gets each team more matches and more playing time for players
• More fairly identifies the top teams as more teams play more opponents
• Virtually eliminates the chance of an undefeated team being sent home

When there are 8 or 9 teams in the flight, Southern takes the top-4 teams into a draw starting with semifinals and in this format, there is virtually no way of having a fifth 4-0 team.  But if there are fewer than 8 teams the take just the top-2 teams to a final.

In this latter case, there may be the potential for a third 4-0 teams in extreme cases, but instead of sticking their head in the sand and hoping it doesn't happen, Southern has a clause in the rules to handle it!

The clause reads:

In the rare instance that there are more undefeated teams than allowed in playoffs, an additional playoff match may be added to accommodate the extra undefeated team. (For example, there are three undefeated teams in a partial round robin group of seven teams after four team matches against randomly selected opponents. A playoff match between the #2 and #3 team, based on standings, may be added to determine which team is placed in the final playoff against the #1 team.)

I think this is perfectly reasonable, and is something I've written about and suggested to National staff be implemented, so am pleased to see Southern doing it.  Yes, it creates an extra match that has to be fit in somewhere, but I think that is eminently more fair than telling a 4-0 team, that may have gone 4-0 with the toughest schedule of the 4-0 teams and lost out on a courts, sets, or games tie-breaker as a result, that they don't advance.

To my knowledge, even National has not adopted a clause like this to address the possibility of sending an undefeated team home, so well done Southern for leading the way.

What do you think?  Should National and all sections adopt language like this in how they implement the format?

And it happened again - An undefeated team is sent home at SoCal Sectionals

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of an undefeated team missing out on making the semi-finals and being sent home at 40 & Over SoCal Sectionals, and indeed it happened.

The 3.5 Women's flight had 18 teams and they played unflighted round-robin with each team playing just three matches.  This is ripe for problems and it has happened before and yet SoCal continues to use the format.

This time, there were six teams that were 2-0 after day one and none of them played each other in their 3rd match so it was possible that there would be six 3-0 teams and two sent home, but only five won leaving them all 3-0.  With just four spots for the semis, the 5th place 3-0 team is sent home.

As of right now, the four semi-finalists aren't populated, but standings show:

1. OC - RCI - 3-0 / 10-2 / 20-8
2. LA - WC - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-6
3. SDNC - Fairbanks Ranch - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-8
4. SD SDTRC - 3-0 / 8-4 / 19-9
5. LLW - Bake - 3-0 / 8-4 / 17-10

Tough luck for LLW.  They didn't lose a match, won the same number of courts as SD SDTRC, but lost one more set so they miss out.

This is known beforehand I assume, so teams should know it might happen and what they need to do to avoid it, but it is still a terrible format and way to decide the teams to advance to the semis.

What do you think?

Is USTA Southern California at it again?

It is that time of year when some sections start to have playoffs and Sectionals, and that means it is time to see what flawed formats get used.

USTA SoCal has a history of using the unflighted round-robin format in questionable ways, specifically having too many teams and not enough team matches leaving the door open to a team going undefeated in round-robin and missing out on making the semis.

Last year the 2024 40 & Over 3.5 Women had a 3-0 team go home, and worse, they got the raw end of the deal on the broken standings tie-breakers.  And it has nearly happened several times before.

Well, they appear to be consistent if nothing else, as they are doing the same format with the same issues this weekend, but at least only for one flight.  The 40 & Over 3.5 Women again have 18 teams and each playing just three matches.

Will a team go undefeated and be left out of the semis?  There is no guarantee, but there is a really good chance of it.

2025 USTA League Nationals Schedule

It is only January, but 2025 early start leagues were played in the Fall and more leagues have just started, so it isn't too early to start thinking about Nationals.

The 2025 schedule is very much like the 2024 schedule with Orlando, San Diego, Scottsdale, and Surprise all hosting events.  What is different is that the events are spread over five weekends instead of the four we had last year.  This means events begin October 10th this year.

Here are the dates, locations, and events.

• October 10-12
• 18 & Over 2.5 Women - Scottsdale
• 18 & Over 3.5 - Surprise
• 18 & Over 4.0 - San Diego
• 18 & Over 5.0 - Scottsdale
• October 17-19
• 18 & Over 4.5 - Surprise
• 40 & Over 3.0 - San Diego
• 40 & Over 4.0 - Scottsdale
• October 24-26
• 18 & Over 3.0 - Scottsdale
• 40 & Over 3.5 - Surprise
• 40 & Over 4.5 - San Diego
• October 31-November 2
• Mixed 18 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Orlando
• 55 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Scottsdale
• November 7-9
• Mixed 18 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 / 10.0 - Surprise
• Mixed 40 & Over 6.0 / 7.0 / 8.0 / 9.0 - Orlando
• 55 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 - Scottsdale

We see the normal progression of 18 & Over to 40 & Over to 55 & Over and Mixed.

What is new from what I recall is that 40 & Over is being done all the same weekend at the same location.

Also interesting is that Orlando isn't be used until 10/31, when the past few years it was used the week earlier, typically around the 20th.  The late season hurricanes of recent years could very well be influencing this aspect of the schedule.

What event are you hoping to make it to?