Yep, it happened again, yet another undefeated team sent home at Southern California Sectionals

I'm growing tired of having to write these blog posts, but until SoCal USTA fixes their format and it stops happening, I'll keep pointing it out.

What is "it" you ask?

Southern California chooses to use the unflighted round-robin format for their Sectionals, at least for some divisions and levels, but does so with too many teams and not enough matches, leading to the possibility that more than four teams go undefeated and one (or more) of them get left out of making the semi-finals.

It has happened before in SoCal, just two months ago at 40 & Over Sectionals, and last year as well.  And this weekend it happened for the 18 & Over 3.5 women with 18 teams in the flight and each team playing just three matches.  That is a recipe for disaster and sure enough, there are five 3-0 teams.

I feel bad for SD WD LLW 3.5 Mtn View/ Jackie Saenz as they won their three matches, but it wasn't enough.  Now, they won each one 3-2 and so had the least impressive individual court record and that is the first tie-breaker in this case, and hopefully they knew going in winning 3-2 three times might not be enough, but that is still tough to swallow.

SoCal players, why do you stand for this?  Are you giving your section leaders your thoughts?  Or are you ok with it as is?

Note: I took a look and it appears that there was a greater than 6% chance there would be six 3-0 teams, and over a 23% chance of five 3-0 teams.

And it happened again - An undefeated team is sent home at SoCal Sectionals

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of an undefeated team missing out on making the semi-finals and being sent home at 40 & Over SoCal Sectionals, and indeed it happened.

The 3.5 Women's flight had 18 teams and they played unflighted round-robin with each team playing just three matches.  This is ripe for problems and it has happened before and yet SoCal continues to use the format.

This time, there were six teams that were 2-0 after day one and none of them played each other in their 3rd match so it was possible that there would be six 3-0 teams and two sent home, but only five won leaving them all 3-0.  With just four spots for the semis, the 5th place 3-0 team is sent home.

As of right now, the four semi-finalists aren't populated, but standings show:

1. OC - RCI - 3-0 / 10-2 / 20-8
2. LA - WC - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-6
3. SDNC - Fairbanks Ranch - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-8
4. SD SDTRC - 3-0 / 8-4 / 19-9
5. LLW - Bake - 3-0 / 8-4 / 17-10

Tough luck for LLW.  They didn't lose a match, won the same number of courts as SD SDTRC, but lost one more set so they miss out.

This is known beforehand I assume, so teams should know it might happen and what they need to do to avoid it, but it is still a terrible format and way to decide the teams to advance to the semis.

What do you think?

Is USTA Southern California at it again?

It is that time of year when some sections start to have playoffs and Sectionals, and that means it is time to see what flawed formats get used.

USTA SoCal has a history of using the unflighted round-robin format in questionable ways, specifically having too many teams and not enough team matches leaving the door open to a team going undefeated in round-robin and missing out on making the semis.

Last year the 2024 40 & Over 3.5 Women had a 3-0 team go home, and worse, they got the raw end of the deal on the broken standings tie-breakers.  And it has nearly happened several times before.

Well, they appear to be consistent if nothing else, as they are doing the same format with the same issues this weekend, but at least only for one flight.  The 40 & Over 3.5 Women again have 18 teams and each playing just three matches.

Will a team go undefeated and be left out of the semis?  There is no guarantee, but there is a really good chance of it.

It happened again, SoCal has an undefeated team sent home from Sectionals

I wrote several months ago that the SoCal section appeared to be running their Sectionals using an unflighted round-robin format that was begging for an undefeated team to be sent home.  Well, it happened again this weekend's 40 & Over Sectionals.

The 3.5 women had a whopping 18 teams in the flight, and only three matches scheduled for each team which creates a very good chance of the situation to happen.  For comparison, there is a small chance of it happening at Nationals (and it has happened), and there they have 17 teams playing four matches so you can only imagine the risk goes way up with an additional team and one fewer match.

The way things played out, there were five undefeated teams and only four could advance, so one was sent home.  Here were the standings:

1. OC LLW - 3-0 / 15-0 / 30-2 / 177-67
2. SFV - 3-0 / 10-5 / 21-11 / 149-117
3. V-WD - 3-0 / 10-5 / 21-13 / 145-118
4. BC - 3-0 / 9-6 / 19-14 / 157-118
5. SD - 3-0 / 9-6 / 21-14 / 153-130

So SD was left out, and worse, the broken standings tie-breakers bit them too!  The tie-breaker is sets lost and BC and SD were tied, and the USTA chooses to ignore sets won and goes straight to games lost where SD and lost more games.  Well, given they played, and won, two more sets, one can understand how they would have lost more games.

What do you think?  Was SD given the short end of the stick and unfairly left out of the semis?  Or every team knew the rules and just needed to play better.

Unflighted Round Robin - SoCal is at it again in 2024

The USTA began using the unflighted round-robin format for Nationals quite a few years ago now, and a number of sections began using it for Sectionals along the way.  Unfortunately, it has been used inappropriately in some cases leading to situations where undefeated teams were left out of advancing on to the semis or finals.

It has even happened at Nationals, twice in fact, as while the use of the format there has a low chance of it happening, it is possible.

It has happened in NorCal, and I believe they have changed their format to avoid the issue.

The Southern California section has flirted with disaster in the past, more than once, as they insist on having on the order of 18 teams in a flight use the format with just three matches played, a recipe for disaster.  Well, they continue to do it in 2024.

SoCal has a varying number of teams in the one large flight and then they generally have them play three matches with the top-4 in the standings advancing on to the semis.  If there are enough teams, generally around 14 or more, it is not only impossible to have a schedule guaranteed to avoid more than four undefeated teams, but the chances of it happening are real.

Last weekend they had:

• 40 & Over 3.5 women - 18 teams, a real chance of five undefeated teams, but some upsets only had three.  Still, seven teams tied at 2-1 for the questionable tie-breakers to decide.
• 40 & Over 4.5 women - 12 teams and they did three flights which is sensible, although you then are picking one second place team to advance.

This weekend they have:

• 40 & Over 3.0 women - 14 teams, not a big chance but it could happen.
• 40 & Over 4.0 women - 18 teams again, a real chance it could happen.

I understand that to get to 18 teams, the section may have even awarded wildcards to teams that didn't win their area or flight.  If so, exacerbating the problem just to give wildcards also seems questionable.  No wildcards and 16 teams reduces the risk with unflighted round-robin, or with 16 teams you can have four flights of four.

I'm not sure why SoCal keeps doing this, it will bite them at some point.

Another unflighted round-robin disaster in the making at SoCal 40 & Over Sectionals

Southern California will be holding their Sectionals for the 40 & Over division in a few weeks, and once again the unflighted round-robin format is being used in a way that could likely result in an undefeated team not advancing.

I've written numerous times on the subject of the risks and occurrences of undefeated teams being sent home, so I won't go through them all again, but suffice it is to say, it has happened and the chances are often pretty good it will happen for a given event.

National uses the format for Nationals, and with 17 teams and four matches per team, there is almost always a chance of it happening, but the chance is very low, often around 1% or less.  Still, even with that low a chance, you would expect it to happen every 75-100 events or so.

But what has been done by several sections is to use the format in an even riskier way, and that is what SoCal is doing.  The riskier use is to have more than 17 teams, and have them play only three matches.  When this is done it is even more likely you get "islands" of teams where many teams to play each other and they can all go 3-0.

As of my writing this, the teams/schedules could still change a bit perhaps, but:

• The 3.0 women have 14 teams playing three matches each.
• The 3.5 women have 17 teams, and the schedule isn't up yet but they'll likely play three matches each.
• The 4.0 women have 18 teams playing three matches each.

These are the risky flights, the others have fewer teams or have flights.

The 4.0 women is the worst, more teams than Nationals and fewer matches, a recipe for disaster.  If all the teams were equal, my simulation says there could be as many as seven (7!) undefeated teams and there is a 2% chance of five or more.

But the teams aren't equal, and in that case some teams are more likely to win, and my simulation says there is over a 6% chance of five or more being undefeated.  It isn't odds on to happen of course, but that is a reasonably high chance and once you'd think they would try to avoid.

This can be seen if we look at this diagram showing who plays against who.

For example, SDNC-Flynn, SD-Webster, CC-Braun, V-Schoenburg, V-Chao, SD-Dielman, and SDNC-Moses all don't play each other and could each finish 3-0.

The other two scenarios are not as bad.  The 3.0 women with 14 teams has a less than 1% chance of five or more undefeated.

We'll see what happens!

An undefeated team does not advance at SoCal 18 & Over Sectionals

A couple weeks ago I wrote about the Southern Cal 18 & Over Sectionals and some scenarios where the use of the un-flighted round-robin format was liable to cause some issues.  Specifically, the use of it with too many teams and/or not enough matches can lead to more teams being undefeated than there are to advance to the semis/final.

I had focused on the 3.5 women, where going into the last match it was possible for six teams to be undefeated and only four would advance.  But the USTA was bailed out by two of the teams losing so it was just four undefeated teams.

What I failed to highlight sufficiently was the 4.5 women where there were only 10 teams, but for this flight they only played three matches and just the top-2 advanced.  My simulation said there was an 18% chance of three undefeated teams, and indeed it did happen.

Here were the standings:

• SD Peninsula TC - 3-0 / 12-3
• SD Barnes TC - 3-0 / 11-4
• SFV Let's Play - 3-0 / 10-5

Note that the team that finished third did, by my ratings, have a tougher schedule than the first place team.  So SFV goes to Sectionals and doesn't lose a match, playing a reasonably hard schedule, and doesn't get to advance.  Meanwhile, the team that finished second had the easiest schedule.

This doesn't seem terribly fair.  What do you think?

USTA SoCal outlines tentative schedule for the remainder of 2020 - Will you plan to play?

We know the USTA has suspended play through May 31.  We also know that National has canceled USTA League Nationals for 2020.  I also hypothesized what a continuation of league play may look like, but we haven't had much concrete information on what actually will happen, in large part due to the unknown of when play will resume.

The Pacific Northwest did announce that 40 & over would not be completed, nor would 18 & Over or Mixed 40 & Over be played, and correspondingly all Sectionals were being canceled.  There will be a free "Welcome Back to Tennis" league in the Summer, and Fall Early Start Leagues for 2021 are still scheduled to begin as planned.

I just learned that Southern Cal has tentative plans for resuming play, and they are going to try to finish and play all scheduled leagues.  This was from the San Fernando Area but mentions Sectionals, so seems to be applicable for the whole section:

• Adult 18 & Over will start the 2nd or 3rd week of June  and play through October 9.  All levels will play 1 court of singles and 2 courts of doubles
• Adult 40 & Over which was suspended will be completed, teams with "critical" matches have until August 28 to complete them
• Adult 55 & Over will play September thru November
• Adult 65 & Over will play September thru October
• Mixed 18 & Over which was suspended will be completed, teams with "critical" matches have until August 7 to complete them
• Mixed 40 & Over will start 1st week of July and play through mid-September
• Tri-Level will start the 1st week of July and play through the Summer
• Mixed Tri-Level TBD
• Fall SCTA Doubles will play September thru December
• Sectionals Schedule:
• Adult 18 & Over in November using 1 singles and 2 doubles
• Adult 40 & Over in September or October
• Adult 55 & Over in December or January
• Mixed 18 & Over in August or September
• SCTA Doubles in January as usual

I'm guessing that "critical" matches are those remaining matches in suspended leagues that have an impact on standings.  Thus, matches between teams out of the running do not need to be played.

So if you live in SoCal, you may still get to play the majority of your leagues and matches.  Will you still do so?  Or are you leery of coming back to play too quickly?  Or with no Nationals, you've lost interest?

Leave a comment, let your voice be heard.

Tie-breaker change coming to TennisLink? SoCal varies how 40 & Over is handled

As more 40 & Over leagues are getting underway, I'm learning of more variations in how the leagues are being played, and that a potential change is coming to TennisLink to offer another way to break ties.

I have been keeping track of what I hear/learn about how different sections and districts adapt to the change National made to use 4-courts for 40 & Over.  I just added some new information I heard about Southern California and that is that:

• Most leagues will use the 4-court format of 1 singles and 3 doubles courts
• Scoring/standings will be team wins
• In the event of a tie on games lost, the visiting team will be declared the winner*
• Some 4.5+ flights (Orange County for one) will continue to use 5-courts to give more singles playing opportunity to 4.5s
• Some 4.5+ flights will use a 3-court 1 singles 2 doubles format

There is an * above because it appears SoCal would prefer to break 2-2 ties by declaring the winner to be the team that won court 1 doubles.  But, TennisLink can't do that today, it would have to be done manually making the team standings on TennisLink not reflect reality.  So they are sticking with what TennisLink can do, which is to give the win to the visiting team.

Unless ...

Apparently all the furor over this change and exposing the tie-breakers National documented as being insufficient has caused National to say a change may be made to TennisLink to allow a league to have the 2-2 ties ultimately broken by awarding the win to the team that won court 1 doubles.  As I understand it, this would be the sequence of rules for determining the team win:

• Winner of the most courts
• In the event of a 2-2 tie, loser of the fewest sets
• Should that tie, lower of the fewest games
• Should that tie, whomever won court 1 doubles would be the winner

It is unclear when this will be done though, so SoCal and other areas may have to stick with what TennisLink can do, which is give the win to the visiting team, or a league can elect to use Points Per Position (PPP).

I do have to wonder, PNW made the change to use PPP and weight court 1 doubles higher, and if this TennisLink option would have been available if it would have been used.

What do you think?  If a league is going to play a 4-court format, do you prefer PPP or would you prefer?

SoCal is at it again - 18 team random round-robin with only 3 matches per team

The Southern California section of the USTA has a local doubles league in the Fall that culminates in Sectionals near the beginning of the new year.  I came across the planned schedule for the event to be played January 24-26 and noticed that while most of the levels have standard flights, the 4.0 women's event has 18 teams playing a flightless random round-robin.

For those following along, you know that Nationals has used the format the past couple years with generally 17 teams each playing 4 matches against randomly selected opponents.  The top-4 in the standings advance on to the semis.   The format has worked reasonably well, but with 17 teams and 4 matches per team does have the possibility of 5 (or more) undefeated teams resulting in a team without a loss not advancing.  It also shines the light on the standings tie-breaker shortcomings in deciding who advances when there is a tie, which is usually very likely.

The format has been used by some sections for various levels of playoffs too.  NorCal made the mistake of using it for Districts last year where a 4.0 mens team went undefeated and did not advance to Sectionals when the format was used with 22 teams each playing just 3 matches.  Southern Cal had planned to use the format for Tri-Level Sectionals with 13 teams each playing only 2 matches, but were bailed out when several teams didn't show up.

Now, the format can work, but it must be used with the right ratio of teams to matches.  Nationals with 17 teams and 4 matches is stretching it, what NorCal did with 22 teams and 3 matches was just egregious, and the plan for SoCal to use it for their upcoming Sectionals looks questionable too as they have 18 teams each playing just 3 matches.  The chances of disaster are not as great as NorCal with 22 teams and 3 matches, but there is still a good chance of 5 undefeated teams.

Why do sections do this?  I don't know, they are either just not thinking or refuse to consider statistics and the likelihood of it happening.  I have not looked at the specific teams/schedule, but there is a decent chance that 5 or even 6 teams could go undefeated for SoCal SCTA Doubles Sectionals.

Southern California follows Northern California's lead in questionable use of unflighted round-robin

Earlier this year, NorCal used the unflighted round-robin format for district playoffs, and foolishly did so with 22 teams, each only playing three matches.  This was a recipe for disaster, and indeed it happened with five teams finishing undefeated, and only four advancing.  Given that it was possible for eight(!) teams to finish undefeated, it is no surprise this happened.

You would hope the lesson had been learned and this format with a large number of teams and few matches per team would be avoided.  Unfortunately, that isn't the case as SoCal appears to be trying to one-up NorCal by questionably using the format for Tri-Level Sectionals.

Specifically, the 3.0/3.5/4.0 women's draw has 13 teams and a schedule with each team playing only two other teams.  Running through my simulation, two issues are exposed.

First, with this format/schedule, there is a not insignificant chance of six(!) teams to be undefeated, but a full 7% chance of five undefeated.  So it certainly isn't a given it will occur, but it very well could occur that one, if not possibly two, teams go undefeated and aren't in the top-4 to advance to the semis.  This is bad on its own, but is even worse when you throw in that in Tri-Level each team plays just three courts (six courts total across the two matches) so there is very little differentiation possible and it is highly dependent on schedule strength.

Second, the schedule has a 69% chance of a tie for the last spot (at 4-0 or 3-1 or even 2-2).  Again, with so few matches/courts played, there is little differentiation possible and ties on records and courts are very likely and it will go to tie-breakers.

Both of these highlight those tie-breakers and their flaws and could likely lead to the 'wrong' team being picked to advance.  These tie-breakers have issues, especially when so little data is provided to them and are highly subject to strength of schedule which can be wildly different when everyone plays only two matches.

Other events at Tri-Level Sectionals have normal flights so don't have this issue.  It appears the 3.0/3.5/4.0 women are the only event with an odd number of teams that can't be split into even flights so they went this way.  They just needed to have all the teams play three matches to mitigate the risk.

Now, they could get lucky and have no controversial standings or teams advancing, but beware of the inappropriate use of unflighted round-robin!