Sunday, July 16, 2017

New addition to Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports - Average opponent NTRP level and rating

When I generate Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports for folks, some are disappointed to see they aren't rated higher than my report shows.  When this happens, it is often the case that they've won a lot and so expect their rating will have gone up, but their wins are close and/or they've been unlucky to play a lot of lower rated opponents.

In the reports I do, I explain the reasons for this and cite examples of matches where there were weak opponents, but I've wanted to make it more clear in the report and have added a few things that I think will help with that.

First is showing the average NTRP level for all the opponents played.  For many people, this will show their NTRP level, e.g. if a 3.5 only plays against 3.5s, their average opponent will be a 3.5.  But if you happen to play quite a few players playing up, this average can be a bit lower, 3.4 or even in the 3.3s, and seeing this be lower than your NTRP level can be an indication you played a number of players playing up.

Second is showing the average dynamic rating for all the opponents played.  This gets a little more specific as not all 3.5s (or 4.0s or 4.5s, etc.) are created equal.  It is possible you may play all players at level, but happen to play particularly strong or weak ones and this stat will tell you that.

The other thing you can do is look at the difference between these two statistics.  If you are a 3.5, and play only 3.5s and happen to play average 3.5s, your average opponent NTRP level would be 3.5 and your average opponent dynamic rating would be 3.25.  So you sort of expect a 0.25 gap between these.  If you've played stronger players, the second number will get larger and the gap will be smaller than 0.25, and if you've played weaker players on average, the gap will be larger.

Here is an example.

This is the player in my example report from last year, this player went 17-8 and went to Nationals and was bumped up from 4.0 to 4.5.  Their full chart is below.

Their average opponent NTRP level was 4.01, they played up and so playing some 4.5s moved this average up, and their average opponent dynamic rating was 3.87, just a 0.14 gap.  So either because of playing up or because they went to Nationals and were playing very strong 4.0s, this stat shows they did play strong opponents and going 17-8 against them resulted in a bump up.

With this addition, I think it will become more clear how strong your opponents have been and why your rating is where it is.  All new reports I do from this point forward will include these new stats, and as always, contact me if you are interested in getting a report.