The player went 5-3 in the Spring league playing 4.0 but went 0-6 in Fall leagues, one a 3.5 match late in the 2013 calendar year and five more in 2014. So they are using the Fall league to manage their rating down right?
I'm not so sure. Here is their chart for last year.
There is clearly a very wide range in the results, and the Fall league matches do stand out as the worse results, but because my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating reports break out singles and doubles results both in the summary stats and the chart, it is clear that all the Fall league matches that are the bad results are singles while the Spring league results are all doubles. There are also some lower rated doubles matches during the Spring so the Fall league results don't stand out too much.
But looking at singles vs doubles, this player's average match ratings are 3.24 vs 3.57, a full 0.33 different. That is an awfully big spread, in most of the reports I do for players their difference is just a tenth or two, but not over three tenths.
So is this player tanking matches? Or are they just bad a singles? The data would seem to lean towards supporting the latter, although it is possible they just prefer to tank using singles matches so it doesn't look as suspicious. It is also possible the 3/20 doubles result was a fluke in some way due to an opponent having a bad day or just the way the algorithm works in some circumstances and so their results don't really vary that much.
What do you think?
Does Fall League even count towards ratings?
ReplyDeleteIn some sections it does.
DeleteIn some sections it does.
DeleteThat is quite a variation...my guess would be they are using the singles matches to tank their rating, but you never know. What I find funny is that the men most often seem to be trying to keep their rating low so they can win and the women (at least at my club) are killing themselves to get bumped up! Doesn't matter if they get clobbered at the next level, what matters is the number next to their name! So interesting!!
ReplyDeleteI know of a high rated 4.0 singles player who is much worse a doubles. He slices and pushes the ball, just gets it in play, below average at the net, so he wins a lot of singles matches and then gets crushed in doubles. I know he's not tanking. I have won a lot of doubles matches due to strategy, placement, playing with a known partner, but would see myself loosing 75% of any singles matches I would play.
ReplyDeleteFor USTA players and tennis players in general, isn't "tanking" failure to compete? And isn't failure to compete "Unsportsmanlike Conduct"? In that case can't you claim a win by forfeit if it's your opponent doing it, or legally retire from the match if it's your doubles partner?
ReplyDelete